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  1. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    seems bold, but pushes the matter off the agenda. probably spoken to a lot of European leaders and weighed up how it might or might not work. expect something more practical like improved trading arrangement, maybe even one that that looks and smells like customs union, but called something...
  2. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    maybe its the leader, i struggle with the concept of "shy" Reformer. methinks this is also Labour shoring up their vote: dont be complacent or Reform might nick it. otherwise they are saying they have lost lots of votes to Reform, which would be a cause for concern.
  3. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    yes, there is clearly a practical difference between and 10 and 100 seat majority. dont know why the term supermajority its bothering anyone beyond a bit of mocking at the panic, it's almost a coordinated response.
  4. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    can get 5/1 to 6/1 for >150. evens on >100. while it's tempting, reckon the turnout will do for them getting near 150.
  5. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    here's another: knowing they'll lose, it's strategic, looking ahead to confine Labour to current tax programme. any significant tax rises and next election it's all "see, you cant trust Labour, say one thing and do another".
  6. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    it would be simple rule, only talk about your policy, not the other's policy or what they might do.
  7. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    these debates are not dull, they are painful. i dislike both of them more everytime they are on. they trot out the same tired claims with nothing new.
  8. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    had leaflets from all the main parties, couple from Liberals. still notable next to no signs around.
  9. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    the anecdote is strong on "allowing to fail" narrative, with mis-information about training (risen to 4000) and on BMA message about ARRS (have a read about that, and also PCNs) incidently, back to election, it's indicative of how poor this government is that they cant even communicate this...
  10. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    not at all, i'm highlighting there is some twisting of information behind the story. ARRS was never intended to fund GPs, it was intended to provide non-GP roles to support them. the BMA apparently dont like that. if i know i have feet problems, i'm probably better off seeing a podiatrist...
  11. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    whoever thought extra nurses, physio, skilled therapists would be a bad thing? ARRS is additional funding, so doesnt directly affect GP numbers, though their union wants it to. the question should be why so many GP's go to locum work rather than stay in a permenant position. funny line in...
  12. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    but the polling data is from Survation. interesting point they seem to completely ignore the independent vote there, either very small vote or shows the MRP not being so useful for individual seats. does feel like polls taken too seriously when they give 2 decimal accuracy from polls that...
  13. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    talking of splitting the vote, i wonder if this seat might be won on the lowest share?
  14. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    dont know if psyops, saw Alister Campbell doesn't believe the MRP polls, doesnt expect so large a majority for Labour. i looked up, Ipsos poll is based on 20k people selected from an online panel.
  15. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    maybe, indirectly. if spending on services is rising faster than GDP, then revenue or borrowing needs to increase to cover. makes for some awkward claims about spending cuts while revenue rises, or spending increases without more revenue. Labour is banking on naturally rising GDP to outpace...
  16. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    a bit, not really much. the deficit is so large each year from not matching revenue and spending, COVID spending just swallowed into the debt pile. this year and next budgets are larger than 2020.
  17. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    it's the measure as % of GDP. risen from 33% to 36%, mostly from rising corp tax and more recently freezing tax bands. we dont seem to get much bang for buck because funding for services have to go further, even when they rise its not enough for increased demand.
  18. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    as i understood it various rates and rebates apply, offsetting non-road use. transport is by far our large use of oil fuels. though now i'm going to waste the morning looking for a breakdown of duty sources.
  19. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    road spending is about £11bn. https://www.statista.com/statistics/298667/united-kingdom-uk-public-sector-expenditure-national-roads/ fuel duty alone is £25bn. https://www.statista.com/statistics/284323/united-kingdom-hmrc-tax-receipts-fuel-duty/ with VED on top £7bn...
  20. beorhthelm

    [Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

    driving across the shire today, some Lewes and Wealden constituencies, was struck by lack of any political signs. only noticed once i saw a Conservative one so looking out for them, counted one other and a couple for Liberals. places previously festoned with signs had nothing. realised none...

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