[Albion] Reasons To Be Cheerful - Sort Of!

Balders · May 6, 2025

ROSM said:
What specifically do you see as nonsense? I really believe some people (maybe not you) are annoyed at what they perceive has been said rather than what has been said. I've had some people attribute to me comments that I haven't made for example.

Mine was a general comment not aimed at anybody in particular.

Most of the nonsense revolves around factual things, different expectations than those confirmed by the Board, assertions that we are the only team that don't pick up points against the bottom six etc...

Also there are examples of how people perceive things like the £200m spend in isolation without thinking about wage bills and other associated things that they use as some kind of justification to become a top 6 club overnight.

There's loads of it......... I could go on......... but I guess the main thing is people using sound bytes (that don't actually stack up) to suit and hammer home their own agendas ad infinitum.

ROSM · May 6, 2025

Balders said:
Mine was a general comment not aimed at anybody in particular.

Most of the nonsense revolves around factual things, different expectations than those confirmed by the Board, assertions that we are the only team that don't pick up points against the bottom six etc...

Also there are examples of how people perceive things like the £200m spend in isolation without thinking about wage bills and other associated things that they use as some kind of justification to become a top 6 club overnight.

There's loads of it......... I could go on......... but I guess the main thing is people using sound bytes (that don't actually stack up) to suit and hammer home their own agendas ad infinitum.

Top 10 target is i believe a well quoted statement from the club

The stretch goals really cup semis and Europe were quoted in the athletic article from andy naylor following RDZ sacking last season. One of those 'sources close to the club who have spoken on condition of anonymity' type quotes.

This years stretch targets would be highly unlikely to be less.

Agree with your point on others not beating bottom 6 teams and the 200m although I don't think that latter piece has been heavily laboured in this thread

Balders · May 6, 2025

ROSM said:
Top 10 target is i believe a well quoted statement from the club

The stretch goals really cup semis and Europe were quoted in the athletic article from andy naylor following RDZ sacking last season. One of those 'sources close to the club who have spoken on condition of anonymity' type quotes.

This years stretch targets would be highly unlikely to be less.

Agree with your point on others not beating bottom 6 teams and the 200m although I don't think that latter piece has been heavily laboured in this thread

Are we not currently Top 10?

A lot of this comes down to interpretation - our target is to become an established Top 10 Club in the EPL - I interpret "established" to be over a number of years and that also means that some years we may not achieve Top 10, otherwise the wording should be "guaranteed Top 10 Club in the EPL" - we are not there yet imho.

This years stretch targets remain the same - again it's how people interpret "stretch". For me that doesn't mean if we play to our best, a stretch target should be easily attainable - it's a difficult target and one that moves due to a variety of different factors, not least retaining a settled quality squad where we can hang on to our best players (which goes against the Club's strategy, but that's rather forced on them) for continuity and consistency with as fewer injuries as possible. The stretch target is actually the perfect season.

The Club's targets are quoted in their annual Accounts published at the end of March - this isn't any kind of secret:

The Board, by their own admission, have very much become victims of their own success - the more we achieve, the higher fan expectation goes and it's got to a point where fan expectation is much higher than the Board's - this explains the current sentiment on this Board. That's not a bad thing btw, but sometimes fans need to temper their disappointment (disappointment is fine btw) and sometimes look at the bigger picture.

We are one of 20 clubs in the EPL striving to get better - we should not expect an easy ride, not expect others to not want to compete, just because of who we are and what we might have spent in the last transfer window. Doing things outside of the box (which we are very good at) is often a medium/long term strategy, rather than a short term, win at all costs strategy.

ROSM · May 6, 2025

Balders said:
Are we not currently Top 10?

A lot of this comes down to interpretation - our target is to become an established Top 10 Club in the EPL - I interpret "established" to be over a number of years and that also means that some years we may not achieve Top 10, otherwise the wording should be "guaranteed Top 10 Club in the EPL" - we are not there yet imho.

This years stretch targets remain the same - again it's how people interpret "stretch". For me that doesn't mean if we play to our best, a stretch target should be easily attainable - it's a difficult target and one that moves due to a variety of different factors, not least retaining a settled quality squad where we can hang on to our best players (which goes against the Club's strategy, but that's rather forced on them) for continuity and consistency with as fewer injuries as possible. The stretch target is actually the perfect season.

The Club's targets are quoted in their annual Accounts published at the end of March - this isn't any kind of secret:

View attachment 201277

The Board, by their own admission, have very much become victims of their own success - the more we achieve, the higher fan expectation goes and it's got to a point where fan expectation is much higher than the Board's - this explains the current sentiment on this Board. That's not a bad thing btw, but sometimes fans need to temper their disappointment (disappointment is fine btw) and sometimes look at the bigger picture.

We are one of 20 clubs in the EPL striving to get better - we should not expect an easy ride, not expect others to not want to compete, just because of who we are and what we might have spent in the last transfer window. Doing things outside of the box (which we are very good at) is often a medium/long term strategy, rather than a short term, win at all costs strategy.

I'm not disagreeing. We finished 11th last year and are currently 10th with 3 games to go. If we finish 11th again I am intrigued how people would perceive that.

Balders · May 6, 2025

ROSM said:
I'm not disagreeing. We finished 11th last year and are currently 10th with 3 games to go. If we finish 11th again I am intrigued how people would perceive that.

If people's expectations are above those of the Board, then the sentiment will be one of huge disappointment and some, based on their postings on here, may resort to self harm

If people are aligned with the Board, we move on to next season with a sense of excitement

ROSM · May 6, 2025

Balders said:
If people's expectations are above those of the Board, then the sentiment will be one of huge disappointment and some, based on their postings on here, may resort to self harm

If people are aligned with the Board, we move on to next season with a sense of excitement

Fwiw I would consider 11th to be underperforming. I don't think it's sack territory but it couldn't be classed as succeeding in my view. Yes we don't want to be relegated. But given 18th will end up with c26 points it's all relative hence why we can get a lot of points but maybe fall short of top 10

el punal · May 6, 2025

Justice said:
My thoughts are we have under achieved. We have been conceding way to many goals and never really dominated a match for 90 minutes apart from a couple of lower league sides in the cup.
People will have their own thoughts on the manager and that’s fine my own are I don’t think we are going to progress under FH. Most games turn a bit frantic at some point even if we do manage to win I don’t see it improving after a season in charge.

I would argue that very few matches end with a team dominating for 90 minutes. The exceptions to this are when we thumped Southampton away 4-0, which could easily have been 7-0/8-0. Also, when we were completely pulverised 7-0 by Forest. There are several matches when we have controlled proceedings and never looked like losing - Everton, Ipswich and Man Utd, all away, that spring to mind.

For me I’m in the ‘Fab In’ camp. I have always believed that it will be next season that will be the one for critical evaluation. We await and see.

Balders · May 6, 2025

ROSM said:
Fwiw I would consider 11th to be underperforming. I don't think it's sack territory but it couldn't be classed as succeeding in my view. Yes we don't want to be relegated. But given 18th will end up with c26 points it's all relative hence why we can get a lot of points but maybe fall short of top 10

You can dice up the numbers any way you want to suit an agenda but at the end of the day we are not in danger of relegation this season, so for whatever reason, as long as there is a sense of optimism (obviously split on this board!) we go again next season.

Everything is relative is a great term (imho) We may have achieved our second best points haul, but how were those points are distributed this season, compared to other seasons, when the bottom 3 have performed so poorly, might indicate in relative terms, just in respect of points gained, that it might not have been better than seasons where we had a lower points tally - the bottom 3 have amassed 54 points out of 962 gained in the league so far - that's 6% of the points from teams that makes up 15% of the teams in the league! If the bottom 3 next season amass 10% of the points, 55pts may well be good enough for Top 8 - that's how fickle it is.

Obviously you can get into "paralysis by analysis" and/or just try and find something or someone (FH predominantly) to blame - that's de rigueur on football forums these days, and although some class it as "fun", it ain't gonna change anything.

People can either move forward with optimism or persistently bitch and moan - I know which camp I'm in

Mo Gosfield · May 6, 2025

ROSM said:
Top 10 target is i believe a well quoted statement from the club

The stretch goals really cup semis and Europe were quoted in the athletic article from andy naylor following RDZ sacking last season. One of those 'sources close to the club who have spoken on condition of anonymity' type quotes.

This years stretch targets would be highly unlikely to be less.

Agree with your point on others not beating bottom 6 teams and the 200m although I don't think that latter piece has been heavily laboured in this thread

Top ten target is fine providing everybody realises that the PL is a moveable feast. Ever changing, ever evolving. If we finish 10th this season ( likely ) our average over the last four seasons will be 9th. That works for all of us. Overachieve and you can reach Europe. Slightly underachieve and you are still very comfortable, away from the strugglers.
That to me is the most important stage in our progress. The feeling that we are not looking over our shoulders at the lower end of the table. By a third of games played, we are usually in a solid position. We haven't been starting slowly like some ( Palace seem to specialise in it before building up a head of steam )
The sub groups of the PL create an interesting dynamic. Six clubs have developed into a global power bubble. Then there are three potential powerhouses, who, if they get their act together, will have the advantage over us...Villa, Newcastle and Everton. Then come three clubs who are also bigger than us...Forest, Wolves and West Ham. Then the five clubs, all with similar resources, similar ambitions and all growing into semi established PL clubs..BHA, Brentford, Fulham, Palace and Bournemouth. Then you have the three promoted clubs.
Although it is simplistic, our group of five is the most consistent, exemplified by the current occupation of places 12th to 8th. A solid group, none of whom are underperforming and benefitting from underperformers in the other subgroups. As long as this continues, it is not unreasonable to expect these five clubs to continue to generally fill this mid division section.

ROSM · May 6, 2025

Balders said:
You can dice up the numbers any way you want to suit an agenda but at the end of the day we are not in danger of relegation this season, so for whatever reason, as long as there is a sense of optimism (obviously split on this board!) we go again next season.

Everything is relative is a great term (imho) We may have achieved our second best points haul, but how were those points are distributed this season, compared to other seasons, when the bottom 3 have performed so poorly, might indicate in relative terms, just in respect of points gained, that it might not have been better than seasons where we had a lower points tally - the bottom 3 have amassed 54 points out of 962 gained in the league so far - that's 6% of the points from teams that makes up 15% of the teams in the league! If the bottom 3 next season amass 10% of the points, 55pts may well be good enough for Top 8 - that's how fickle it is.

Obviously you can get into "paralysis by analysis" and/or just try and find something or someone (FH predominantly) to blame - that's de rigueur on football forums these days, and although some class it as "fun", it ain't gonna change anything.

People can either move forward with optimism or persistently bitch and moan - I know which camp I'm in

You were doing so well until the last section.

Not being jump for joy happy with 11th (for example) isn't bitching and moaning.

Balders · May 6, 2025

The last

ROSM said:
You were doing so well until the last section.

Not being jump for joy happy with 11th (for example) isn't bitching and moaning.

The last paragraph wasn't directed at you or others that are disappointed with 11th - I'd be disappointed with 11th but moving forward I'm very optimistic, it's how others react, there's a big difference between not jumping for joy and relentless nonsense posted ad infinitum by others.......

Kit Napper · May 6, 2025

ROSM said:
I'm not disagreeing. We finished 11th last year and are currently 10th with 3 games to go. If we finish 11th again I am intrigued how people would perceive that.

I'd be slightly disappointed because at various stages the season promised much more but the second highest top flight points total in our history shouldn't be categorised as failure. I wouldn't dwell on it for long though because my focus would quickly transfer to which of our best players we'll lose/retain over the summer.

Stato · May 6, 2025

Here's a potential positive for the future. Stats seem to suggest that, more than any of our nearest competitors we are competing (fairly well) whilst being at the disadvantage of being closer to the start of a cycle.

If you discount the 'Big six' (Two of them seem to be discounting themselves) and count the top eight teams who aren't Liverpool, City, Chelsea and Arsenal as in competition for the European places, the current management tenures look like this:

Brentford - Frank 6 years 202 days. 13 transfer windows
Fulham - Silva: 3 years 202 days. 8 transfer windows
Newcastle - Howe: 3 years, 179 days. 7 transfer windows
Aston Villa - Emery: 2 years, 186 days. 5 transfer windows
Bournemouth - Iraola: 1 year 321 days. 4 transfer windows
Forest - Nuno: 1 year, 137 days. 3 transfer windows
Palace - Glasner: 1 year, 76 days. 2 transfer windows
Brighton - Hurzeler 308 days. 2 transfer windows

Taking Frank's appointment as a starting date, during that time we have lost White, Cucurella, Bissouma, Trossard, Caicedo, Mac Allister & Sanchez to the wages that the monied six teams can offer. The seven other teams listed have, between them, lost only David Raya, Nathan Ake, Jack Grealish, Dominic Solanke & Brennan Johnson, plus some free transfers and players like Wan Bissaka who have since been sold on.

Looking at players who are at risk of a poaching without a club getting top value (and putting too much trust in Transfermarkt's player valuations), the only player we have currently valued above €20m who is not contracted beyond June 2026 is Simon Adringa (2026). Bournemouth have Senesi (26), Brentford have Janelt, Wissa and Mbeumo (all 26), Palace have Mitchell 25 and Guehi and Mateta 26, Fulham have Pereira and Muniz 26, Forest have Aina 25 and Hudson-Odoi and Williams 26, Newcastle have Longstaff 26 and Villa, although they don't have any, will have to buy if they want to keep Rashford, Disasi and Asensio beyond 25 as they're all on loan. It may be that it's someone else's turn to get raided this year.

In terms of future promise, using those Transfermarkt valuations as an unreliable guide there are 40 players at those clubs younger than 25 and currently priced at €20m+. Of those 40 players ten (a quarter) are at Brighton: Pedro, Baleba, Rutter, van Hecke, Adingra, Minteh, Verbruggen, Gruda, Hinshelwood and O'Riley.

um bongo molongo · May 6, 2025

lawros left foot said:
Personally, I think that anyone who is critical of the team/Club for our dismal record against the bottom 6 clubs this season, that doesn’t at least acknowledge our quite horrendous injury record as a factor is being disingenuous. To still be in the hunt for Europe after what has been a season with unprecedented absences for a variety of injuries, is, to my mind, exemplary.

I’m not at all disagreeing with your main point. But I’d argue this season is the most unprecedented for injuries…since last season

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