[Politics] Donald Trump, US President

highflyer said:

I really don't think Carney wins without the Trump effect. It sounds to me that Trudeau became unpopular for the same reasons that Macron, Biden and now Starmer became unpopular. Cost of living going up, salaries not keeping pace, the rich becoming richer, workers rights eroded, the environment degraded, the states ability to provide essential services reduced and a managerial approach to government with no obvious actions to actually change things. So I don't think it was just Trudeau's personality that caused the Liberals to lose popularity, as insufferable as he could be at times!

The collapse of the NDP and Greens is not good. And could actually play well for the Trump brigade long-term. Without a left opposition, the alternative to Carney (should my prediction above prove correct) will be a far right populist rather than centre left/green.

But all this assumes that the trends of the last decade is a good predictor of the next decade. Which it probably isn't.

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BBassic said:

I didn't apologise but in the weeks immediately following the Brexit vote I found myself in a bar in Berlin explaining to some locals that I too had no idea why the country was doing it had decided to do.

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A1X said:

The changes once Trump suddenly started banging on about making Canada the 51st state in January are stark

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Robdinho said:

Apologies if a stupid question, I've not been following this at all, but why have Trump's comments resulted in such a surge for the Liberal Party only?

Were the Cons in favour of becoming part of the US or something?

The upswing seems to coincide with Trudeau's resignation as much as it does with anything Trump has said.

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The Clamp said:

and those 100 years are going to be filled with pain, fear, and unimaginable suffering on a global scale.

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A1X said:

Pollievre was a big Trump advocate (in the Boris mould over here) and once Trump turned on Canada he had no real way to counter it.

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A1X said:

Interesting thread, essentially product shortages in the US are only a matter of time as the supply chains from tariffs have a natural lag (ships cross the Pacific very slowly) but are basically going to lead to a summer of shortages on a par with COVID. Factor in the shortfall in tourism and a summer of discontent is very possible in the US.

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slartibartfast said:

It's been interesting to see that even Fox has been reporting his low approval ratings for absolutely everything. So.... my prediction is that these will be his next steps:
1) Lash out at everybody responsible for the "fake" polls. (He has already started doing this.)
2) Manufacture a "war" or at the very least a "major US Terrorism threat", putting the US on a War Footing, and diverting all attention from all of the rest. This will allow him to play the "Leader in War" role, invoke various new restrictive laws, and give him an excuse (eventually) to postpone the 2026 half terms elections , and eventually the 2028 election "due to the War time emergency".

I predict Number 2 will come down the track within the next few months.

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The Clamp said:

So it’s good news that there is someone in Canada that will tell Trump to do one.

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highflyer said:

Carney has won on the backlash to Trump. Not on who he is or what his internal policies will be. He's head of a party which is unpopular and he is very much a centre right, paid up member of 'the establishment'. He simply does not have the solutions to the problems that made Trudeau so unpopular. Basically hes's another Starmer/Macron/Biden (all of whom won with little real enthusiasm from voters, but via the path of 'not being as bad as the alternative'). Like those other centre right Western leaders I'd predict he's going to become unpopulular and potentially open the door to a far more nationalist/right wing options in future. All that said, the next few years are likely to be a bit different from the last few years, and an external threat can do wonders for a leaders popularity (see Churchill, Zelensky, Thatcher) so who knows. He may yet be forced into actions he is not instinctively comfortable with.

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Albion my Albion said:

Okay, but what kind of cards does Carney have? If Trump doesn't like his cards he's "in trouble."

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A1X said:

The changes once Trump suddenly started banging on about making Canada the 51st state in January are stark

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The Clamp said:

Is he?

Trump is a bully. Trump holds very few cards. It’s all bluster.

Trump just needs telling to f*** off and he fucks off. Because he’s weak.

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Greg Bobkin said:

Not a great showing by the No Dickheads Policy party,

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