I really don’t “need to be able to guess”.
You're trying to make the argument that we should send troops to Ukraine now. Our government can't do that without working out what the consequences would be, and I don't think you're in a position to say they're making the wrong decision when you haven't even tried to work out what the consequences would be.
But the fight is going to happen.
I’d rather it be sooner than later.
You're stating that as fact and you're wrong, it's not a fact. Other possibilities include:
1) Arming Ukraine whilst restricting Russian trade to the extent that Russia can no longer afford to prosecute the war, and they withdraw.
2) A united Europe arming themselves to the extent that Russia knows they'd badly lose a war, and provide security guarantees to areas under threat from Russia (eg, a pact with the Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, and the unoccupied area of Ukraine).
These examples could lead to an end to the current conflict, without any European boots on the ground. You stating that we are definitely going to have a military war with Russia so we might as well start now is mad.
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