[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

Shropshire Seagull · Apr 25, 2024

raymondo said:
But invading Ukraine isn't provocative

IIRC Russia were doing lots of "military exercises" on the Ukrainian border before the invasion and telling the world they had no intentions of invading Ukraine.

With hindsight, the world now knows that Russia tells porkies, perhaps the Russians think that porkies are the norm and Finland are also telling porkies too and are about to invade Russia imminently.

That would be interesting, could Russia fight on two fronts so far apart - surely they'd be too stretched? Obvs not going to happen ....

fly high · Apr 25, 2024

Ukraine war: US secretly gives Kyiv long-range missiles

Missiles delivered this month have been used to strike Russian targets in Crimea, US media say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Seems these are part of an aid package agreed in March so US has but US were saying no to long range. Biden Has just done it & given them the long range missiles needed. Be interesting to see were they get used. Tin hats on if you are in range anywhere.

A1X · Apr 25, 2024

fly high said:
Ukraine war: US secretly gives Kyiv long-range missiles

Missiles delivered this month have been used to strike Russian targets in Crimea, US media say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Seems these are part of an aid package agreed in March so US has but US were saying no to long range. Biden Has just done it & given them the long range missiles needed. Be interesting to see were they get used. Tin hats on if you are in range anywhere.

I'd probably be wary of crossing a certain bridge...

Eric the meek · Apr 25, 2024

⁵

A1X said:
I'd probably be wary of crossing a certain bridge...

Ukraine can hit it from anywhere behind the southern front line, from Kherson to Zap to Donetsk region.

The Russians know it is coming, so it is well defended.

peterward · Apr 25, 2024

Eric the meek said:
⁵

Ukraine can hit it from anywhere behind the southern front line, from Kherson to Zap to Donetsk region.

The Russians know it is coming, so it is well defended.

Not sure why Budanov has said publicly that the Kerch bridge will be down by July? And not just said nothing at all?

But also read that any attack will likely be a combination of many different attack vectors. They've just upgraded the boat drone, they're in final testing of a submersible drone that can fire torpedo, and of course Storm Shadow/Scalp + ATACMS.

guessing they may use small conventional drones to confuse/waste Russian missile defence and go with water born drones on the bases and missiles in tandem on main structures?

Cannot wait to see that bridge smashed!

Here's hoping.

raymondo · Apr 25, 2024

peterward said:
Not sure why Budanov has said publicly that the Kerch bridge will be down by July? And not just said nothing at all?

But also read that any attack will likely be a combination of many different attack vectors. They've just upgraded the boat drone, they're in final testing of a submersible drone that can fire torpedo, and of course Storm Shadow/Scalp + ATACMS.

guessing they may use small conventional drones to confuse/waste Russian missile defence and go with water born drones on the bases and missiles in tandem on main structures?

Cannot wait to see that bridge smashed!

Here's hoping.

Yes, better to keep quiet I think, unless it's all part of Budanov's mind games.
Even when we have secretly given Ukraine something (like longer range weapons from the US) ...later the news is leaked to the press. I don't get why the west do that...better to let Russia worry that Ukraine has developed its own longer range weapons.

Eric the meek · Apr 25, 2024

peterward said:
Not sure why Budanov has said publicly that the Kerch bridge will be down by July? And not just said nothing at all?

But also read that any attack will likely be a combination of many different attack vectors. They've just upgraded the boat drone, they're in final testing of a submersible drone that can fire torpedo, and of course Storm Shadow/Scalp + ATACMS.

guessing they may use small conventional drones to confuse/waste Russian missile defence and go with water born drones on the bases and missiles in tandem on main structures?

Cannot wait to see that bridge smashed!

Here's hoping.

Ah, they're going for a big bang approach then.

When Budanov said that, I thought the same. Why is he doing that? The value might be in the warning. It might be to make the Russians put an anti-aircraft missile system nearby, so that:

1. There's one fewer to worry about elsewhere where the actual fighting is taking place, until he decides to attack the bridge.
2. He can target the anti-aircraft missile system as well as the bridge. Two for the price of one. Buy one, get one free.
3. It might head off the Russian offensive before it gets off the ground.

This is just a guess though. Have the Russians got any big celebrations coming up, suitable for a big bang? May 7 - Putin's inauguration as president? May 9 - Moscow victory day parade?

Nah, too obvious. Russia will be on high alert....

raymondo · Apr 25, 2024

Eric the meek said:
Ah, they're going for a big bang approach then.

When Budanov said that, I thought the same. Why is he doing that? The value might be in the warning. It might be to make the Russians put an anti-aircraft missile system nearby, so that:

1. There's one fewer to worry about elsewhere where the actual fighting is taking place, until he decides to attack the bridge.
2. He can target the anti-aircraft missile system as well as the bridge. Two for the price of one. Buy one, get one free.
3. It might head off the Russian offensive before it gets off the ground.

This is just a guess though. Have the Russians got any big celebrations coming up, suitable for a big bang? May 7 - Putin's inauguration as president? May 9 - Moscow victory day parade?

Nah, too obvious. Russia will be on high alert....

Ukraine do seem very good at taking out Russian anti-aircraft missile systems. There's something very ironic about that...they can't defend themselves very well.

Eric the meek · Apr 25, 2024

raymondo said:
Ukraine do seem very good at taking out Russian anti-aircraft missile systems. There's something very ironic about that...they can't defend themselves very well.

Indeed. It was telling that the Kremlin, in response to Ukraine attacking the oil refineries, told the oil companies to create their own private armies to defend themselves. Why? Because the Kremlin can't defend the oil refineries itself.

peterward · Apr 25, 2024

Eric the meek said:
Ah, they're going for a big bang approach then.

When Budanov said that, I thought the same. Why is he doing that? The value might be in the warning. It might be to make the Russians put an anti-aircraft missile system nearby, so that:

1. There's one fewer to worry about elsewhere where the actual fighting is taking place, until he decides to attack the bridge.
2. He can target the anti-aircraft missile system as well as the bridge. Two for the price of one. Buy one, get one free.
3. It might head off the Russian offensive before it gets off the ground.

This is just a guess though. Have the Russians got any big celebrations coming up, suitable for a big bang? May 7 - Putin's inauguration as president? May 9 - Moscow victory day parade?

Nah, too obvious. Russia will be on high alert....

The Russians biggest day is May 9th, their victory in europe day thats taken on cult like mythical status in how the red army alone stood against and defeated Hitlers Nazis. Try and tell a Russian the allies also won the war and they wont have it! May 9th is obvious date, but maybe a bit too obvious.

All your Budanov theories make sense, but another? maybe he just wants to humiliate and belittle Putin in by announcing it and then actually doing it..... so the obvious internal questions are, "we knew it was coming, how the hell did we not stop it".

Anyway, who cares the motives, if it happens it will be epic!

Eric the meek · Apr 25, 2024

peterward said:
The Russians biggest day is May 9th, their victory in europe day thats taken on cult like mythical status in how the red army alone stood against and defeated Hitlers Nazis. Try and tell a Russian the allies also won the war and they wont have it! May 9th is obvious date, but maybe a bit too obvious.

All your Budanov theories make sense, but another? maybe he just wants to humiliate and belittle Putin in by announcing it and then actually doing it..... so the obvious internal questions are, "we knew it was coming, how the hell did we not stop it".

Anyway, who cares the motives, if it happens it will be epic!

It would be hugely symbolic.

Not just a symbol of Ukraine's freedom from the subjugation to Russia, but the collapse of the spans - if it were to happen - could be a metaphor for the collapse of the Russian Federation.

Unfortunately, the Kerch bridge webcam is offline at the moment. Let's hope Russia fixes it in time for the celebrations. Budanov, can you give them a nudge please?

Scappa · Apr 25, 2024

peterward said:
The Russians biggest day is May 9th, their victory in europe day thats taken on cult like mythical status in how the red army alone stood against and defeated Hitlers Nazis. Try and tell a Russian the allies also won the war and they wont have it! May 9th is obvious date, but maybe a bit too obvious.

All your Budanov theories make sense, but another? maybe he just wants to humiliate and belittle Putin in by announcing it and then actually doing it..... so the obvious internal questions are, "we knew it was coming, how the hell did we not stop it".

Anyway, who cares the motives, if it happens it will be epic!

It would be purely symbolic - there won't be enough military gear/personnel to make a strike worthwhile - for last year's parade they mustered a single T34 and a handful of Urals. This year maybe it'll be a sled towed by a pair of bolonka.

Eric the meek · Apr 25, 2024

Sean Bell on Crimea, the Kerch Bridge, and Nato vs. Russia:

Spoiler alert: western smart weapons are a game changer.

raymondo · Apr 25, 2024

Eric the meek said:
Indeed. It was telling that the Kremlin, in response to Ukraine attacking the oil refineries, told the oil companies to create their own private armies to defend themselves. Why? Because the Kremlin can't defend the oil refineries itself.

Also, Russia are planning to use anti aircraft missile systems to urgently defend their...err....anti aircraft missile systems.

Eric the meek · Apr 25, 2024

raymondo said:
Also, Russia are planning to use anti aircraft missile systems to urgently defend their...err....anti aircraft missile systems.

I may be accused of singing to the choir, but there are many, many examples of Russian troops being Fubar (f***ed up beyond all recognition).

Peter Zeihan referenced an elite battalion that was given T55 tanks, which are 70 years old. Other examples from the front line cite no ammo, no water, no food, no support, no comms. The infantry still alive were getting food off their dead comrades' bodies. We have recently discussed the glide bombs, old Soviet-era bombs reworked to have fins and GPS.

Russia is close to being out of weapons.

peterward · Apr 25, 2024

Eric the meek said:
I may be accused of singing to the choir, but there are many, many examples of Russian troops being Fubar (f***ed up beyond all recognition).

Peter Zeihan referenced an elite battalion that was given T55 tanks, which are 70 years old. Other examples from the front line cite no ammo, no water, no food, no support, no comms. The infantry still alive were getting food off their dead comrades' bodies. We have recently discussed the glide bombs, old Soviet-era bombs reworked to have fins and GPS.

Russia is close to being out of weapons.

Maybe of some heavier types?.... hit German defence minister Pistorious also just said this, re ammo/artillery

New co-ordinates for the Ukrainian drones me thinks

Eric the meek · Apr 25, 2024

peterward said:
Maybe of some heavier types?.... hit German defence minister Pistorious also just said this, re ammo/artillery

New co-ordinates for the Ukrainian drones me thinks

Hmm. Is Russia planning for the future? Why are the weapons produced not reaching the front line? Is it planning for a war with Nato? Maybe Sean Bell's video has assumed more significance.

SeagullinExile · Apr 25, 2024

Eric the meek said:
Hmm. Is Russia planning for the future? Why are the weapons produced not reaching the front line? Is it planning for a war with Nato? Maybe Sean Bell's video has assumed more significance.

Some commentators have been predicting an East V West global conflict for years. China/Russia/N.Korea Vs NATO is most definitely on the cards within the next 10 years. Maybe sooner.

The clock is ticking closer to midnight.

fly high · Apr 25, 2024

SeagullinExile said:
Some commentators have been predicting an East V West global conflict for years. China/Russia/N.Korea Vs NATO is most definitely on the cards within the next 10 years. Maybe sooner.

The clock is ticking closer to midnight.

About time the West massively ups it's weapons production. Asleep at the wheel at the moment.

Commander · Apr 25, 2024

Eric the meek said:
I may be accused of singing to the choir, but there are many, many examples of Russian troops being Fubar (f***ed up beyond all recognition).

Peter Zeihan referenced an elite battalion that was given T55 tanks, which are 70 years old. Other examples from the front line cite no ammo, no water, no food, no support, no comms. The infantry still alive were getting food off their dead comrades' bodies. We have recently discussed the glide bombs, old Soviet-era bombs reworked to have fins and GPS.

Russia is close to being out of weapons.

We have been hearing this stuff for quite a long time now. Without any detailed knowledge on the subject, I'm just not sure I believe it. They are spending something ridiculous like 40% of their State budget on their war effort, aren't they? I can't see how they can run out of weapons with that going on.

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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

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