[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

The Clamp said:

I fear Ukraine only has a few terrible months left before defeat.

Unless the west steps up massively, Ukraine will fall.

Our boots on the ground. Our pilots in the air. Only this will stop Russia.

Click to expand...

raymondo said:

I don't know how to word this but... somehow it bothers me that US jets, UK jets and ship mounted US air defense systems are immediately used to help take down Iranian missiles and drones fired at Israel...but the same does not happen for Ukraine .

I'm not saying the US and UK should not have intervened to help Israel (that invited the attack by shelling Iranian leaders in Damascus a few days back)... but just my head and emotions spinning on what this reveals about Ukraine's place in the pecking order.
I'm happy to be corrected or helped out by different views .

Click to expand...

Zeberdi said:

I hear what you are saying and when you have followed the Ukranian war as intensely as people have on this thread, the feelings of upset, even outrage that Israel has been somehow prioritised for special treatment is understandable:

However, IMO it boils down to harsh realities. Israel is a long standing military ally for both the US and UK - has (always had) strategic importance as our only real sphere of political and military influence in the ME - of course we will defend Israel against an attack from Iran. It makes no strategic geo-political sense for the West not to defend Israel at the moment - it is also a means of us having political influence on Israel.

NATO countries have been funding Ukraine‘s defence for over two years (actually since Crimea) - but helping to defend Ukraine against Russian attacks (as the West helps Israel) is not enough, Ukraine is an invaded Country and needs more than defensive capabilities to win back territory already lost - she needs attacking capability too - it is an entirely different scenario - for NATO troops to go in and fight alongside Ukraine on the ground or fire missiles directly into Russia, brings us into direct confrontation with a nuclear-armed super-power too - that requires far more consideration of the risks. Is that what people really want? At this time? Maybe?

I do find some of the ‘whataboutery’ expressed on here and the Israeli thread a bit distasteful tbh - I have been Netanyahu’s worse critic since day one, not just re.Gaza but because of his judicial reforms, him taking Israel so far to the right that extremist fascists now hold the balance of power, his treatment of Palestinians and settlement expansions etc. but I am also Jewish with family and friends in Israel so feel very strongly, that we should not be criticising the West for defending a tiny allied Jewish State (that we helped create) against a massive military power in the ME with proxies in nearly every surrounding country - (regardless of whether we believe Israel’s recent elevated security risks are self inflicted by an extremist government or not) but rather we should be criticising the West for not defending Ukraine better.

IMHO - If Trump get’s elected, Ukraine will probably be in even more serious trouble and so will the stability of the ME because based on his previous 4 years, he will do nothing to hold either Putin or Netanyahu back from their war mongering agendas to expand the borders of their respective Countries.

Click to expand...

peterward said:

Well that's true but also not really.

They've given NASAMs.

But of many 100's of F16 they've delivered 0

Of the 160 patriot batteries theyve given 0, they have supplied some missiles for donated batteries, which has just increased to 3, that's 3 of 12 or 25% of what they have..... compared to USA 0% of 160.

Ukraine has pleaded for deep strike ATACMs to track and hit back the missile sites that fire at them and they've got 0 ("could be deemed an escalation")

The US appeasement, escalation management slow drip just enough has failed. Russia isn't contained by our escalation management and simply sees it as lack of resistance to its evil so pushes harder against the open door.

Jake Sullivan needs firing, a white collar intellectual escalation manager is useless against a lawless gangster mafia state.

Mainly in context of Iran strikes, but equally relevant to Russia.... Excellent points made today here by Andrew Michta.... we need a return to real hard power deterrence.

Click to expand...

The Clamp said:

I fear Ukraine only has a few terrible months left before defeat.

Unless the west steps up massively, Ukraine will fall.

Our boots on the ground. Our pilots in the air. Only this will stop Russia.

Click to expand...

Triggaaar said:

That's quite an alarmist viewpoint, which your stating somewhat as fact. I know that you hope you're wrong. I'm sure you are.

Click to expand...

Ukraine could face defeat in 2024. Here's how that might look

With ammo critically low and Western aid stalled, what might Russia attempt in Ukraine this year?

www.bbc.co.uk

Zeberdi said:

I think it is actually a dire warning based on what is happening on the ground and also the US Congress’s apparent inability to pass a single piece of legislation without it becoming contingent on piggybacking other contentious legislation just to get through the House. I referred to this above:

Ukraine could face defeat in 2024. Here's how that might look

With ammo critically low and Western aid stalled, what might Russia attempt in Ukraine this year?

www.bbc.co.uk

Click to expand...

Eric the meek said:

One for the drone fans:

Look at this little beauty.....

Click to expand...

raymondo said:

We just heard from a friend in Zaporizhzhia city that the government announced yesterday they expect all men between 25 and 60 to report for mobilisation - this will be put into law within one month.
(I have not yet searched online for an official statement to confirm this)
One might expect certain people/ professions may be excused, but that was the blanket statement.

Our friends' community is terrified...of losing remaining husbands and sons to a war they fear they no longer have a chance of winning .

Click to expand...

Eric the meek said:

Unfortunately, there will be a reason for it. But there are two sides to every story.

To provide some context, I watched a Peter Zeihan video the other day, in which he said that Russia was quietly, unofficially mobilising to the tune of 45000 - 60000 per month. While he is prone to hyperbole, even if he is half right (and thus half wrong), these won't be additional troops. They will be troops that Russia needs - just to replace losses.

Russia is - absolutely - throwing the kitchen sink at this. Putin is sacrificing hundreds of troops every day, and possibly even more, to save his own skin.

Click to expand...

Eric the meek said:

Russia is - absolutely - throwing the kitchen sink at this. Putin is sacrificing hundreds of troops every day, and possibly even more, to save his own skin.

Click to expand...

raymondo said:

Russia acting like it senses a window of opportunity: US aid in paralysis; European aid slowed; Ukraine on the back foot...but developing drone capabilities very fast; Russian troop and vehicle losses increasing;Trump may get in or not...

Hopefully the window is short and starts to close soon .

Click to expand...

sparkie said:

I'm not so gloomy.

Total defeat is off the table, I think - that is beyond Russia's battered military capability now.

Serious setbacks for Ukraine, perhaps. Kharkiv could be very vulnerable, losses in the East. Putin won't give up on Odesa but that is a difficult aim for Russia even now.


What is true, I firmly believe, is the better Russia does, the bigger the military aid from Europe. Macron has hinted that French troops would be used if Kyiv or Odesa were in danger.

I think it is up to Europe now. The US is now an unreliable ally. Maybe, just maybe, and a longshot, if Trump miraculously doesn't win the US election then things may fully turn and the US will be back.

Click to expand...

Eric the meek said:

Don't forget the Russian economy, a subject which none of us have really focused on, but which IMO, will probably be what finally pulls the plug on Russia's war. The clock is ticking. Russia's war economy is not sustainable, as they don't receive any income from the one-use products of it - weapons. North Korea and Iran are willing to provide weapons all the while the bills are being paid, but when the money runs out? Some Youtubers (e.g. Joe Blogs) predict it collapsing soon. Others (e.g. Peter Zeihan) predict 5-8 years). The Russian political elite may have their own predictions.

Click to expand...

Zeberdi said:

It’s the perfect storm isn’t it - 3 desperate ( and increasingly psychotic IMO) global leaders throwing everything at their immediate situation to save their political skins - I don’t know about Putin but certainly Trump and Netanyahu both doing so to avoid staying out of prison/corruption charges and both acting with impunity and reckless abandonment as to any risk to global security their actions might cause.

Click to expand...

Harry Wilson's tackle said:

Trump will become president.

Click to expand...

Triggaaar said:

That's a 50:50 call, so why are you stating it as fact?

Click to expand...