- Aug 24, 2020
- 5,355
I took particular note of the idea that if Ukraine were to defeat Russia, the post-war Russia would emerge bitter, vengeful and revanchist.
There isn't a good ending to Putinism, is there?
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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)
- Thread starter vegster
- Start date
I took particular note of the idea that if Ukraine were to defeat Russia, the post-war Russia would emerge bitter, vengeful and revanchist.
There isn't a good ending to Putinism, is there?
Yes, he feels it's a cycle that will rinse and repeat, so it's crucial to minimise/zeroise any Russian success in this cycle.
- Nov 11, 2009
- 11,377
That really depends.
No doubt people from the present ruling classes will try and maintain control, somehow getting back a free press/media is only way out of this....so Russians can be told the truth about the evils of Putin as the Germans did Hitler.
Russians who have been brainwashed with lies for decades need a proper brain washing with truth and facts.
Reuters: US sanctions force Lukoil refinery to cut production by 40% - Euromaidan Press
Russian refineries, built with the help of Western engineering firms, are struggling to maintain operations as sanctions hinder access to crucial technology and expertise
euromaidanpress.com
Sirnormangall
Well-known member
- Sep 21, 2017
- 2,971
US support is obviously important, but it shouldn’t be conditional on not attacking Russian assets in Russia. The recent Ukrainian drone attacks within Russia are to be applauded and encouraged - they send a message to the Russian people and Putin’s inner circle that they’re not invincible or safe even within their borders. Putin will use the attacks as a rallying cry to galvanise public support for his war but this isn’t the 1940s and I’d have thought (hope) that the majority of ordinary Russians just want to get on with their lives peacefully, rather than see an increasing number of friends and family coming home in body bags or not at all. Ukraine needs and deserves continued support.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 5,355
Take a look at this from the Washington Post:
It sheds a little light on the recent spectacular success of Ukrainian drone attacks.
Ukraine has 20,000 drone operators, who are aided by software that finds the drone a safe passage through a 'blizzard of Russian jamming'.
It sheds a little light on the recent spectacular success of Ukrainian drone attacks.
Ukraine has 20,000 drone operators, who are aided by software that finds the drone a safe passage through a 'blizzard of Russian jamming'.
History says it’s about winning the peace. Germany post WW1 became bitter and vengeful and this gave Hitler the platform to start WW2. The WW2 victors learned the lessons and helped rebuild Germany and thus it became a stable, democratic and peaceful nation.
We can only hope that western leaders take note.
fly high
Well-known member
- Aug 24, 2020
- 5,355
I admire your noble ideals. I can't fault them.
Unfortunately, history does not tell us how to win the peace with a brutal nuclear super power, the citizens of which have been duped and shaped, for over a century. A brutal super power that feels entitled to invade, bomb, murder, rape, torture and abduct the children of a peaceful independent neighbour. And still manages to appear stunned at finding the batteries in Ukrainian drones are made in the US. How do you propose to win over people who think like that?
While we all would love to see a new, peaceful liberal democracy emerge in Russia, there is no such movement waiting in the wings to take over the reins of power. Estimates vary, but the independent figure I have heard is that 70% of Russians - still - support the war. Read that again.
Like you, I want Russia to become a stable, democratic and peaceful nation. For this to happen, it has to lose BIG, to such an extent that it can no longer afford to build empires at the expense of its neighbours. That means regime change, and the disintegration of the Russian Federation.
After all, if you believe in democracy, you believe in self-determination. There are 190 ethnic groups in the Russian federation, many of whom yearn for independence.
Very interesting
I have a close Estonian friend in his early 30s who has lived and worked in Norway and Spain for 10 years, speaks 4 languages and is extremely educated and basically ‘normal’, but whose parents consider themselves Russian. He consequently believes we in the west are being lied to about Putin and the invasion of Ukraine is justified, so deep are the anti west beliefs.
Basically, i get your point.
The Grockle
Formally Croydon Seagull
I dont think this is particularly unusual in the baltics. My daughter's family have lived in Lithuania for 50 plus years, speak Russian as their first language and are very pro Russia although this has changed somewhat since their invasion of Ukraine.
You only need basic knowledge of recent Baltic history to know the general opinion of Russia but there are many that will see themselves as Russians albeit a much, much smaller proportion than in the donbas and Crimea obviously
fly high
Well-known member
- Aug 24, 2020
- 5,355
'Enough to feed Moscow'
'Enough to die for the Kremlin'
- campaign slogans of the Siberian independence movement.
Siberia's history is a long, dark story of exploitation at the hands of Russians. Fur, oil, gas, gold, diamonds, you name it. All plundered by Moscow.
'Enough to die for the Kremlin'
- campaign slogans of the Siberian independence movement.
Siberia's history is a long, dark story of exploitation at the hands of Russians. Fur, oil, gas, gold, diamonds, you name it. All plundered by Moscow.
Very interesting thanks, highlights for me:
- the facts of high ethnic conscription(we'd guessed)in Russia and use as canon fodder in Ukraine
- Mongolian president denouncing Moscow's treatment of Mongol minorities (eg in Buryatia)
- that Siberia has far far more mineral wealth than the Donbas
- a reminder of China's historical claim on Siberia
Could the disparate (especially geographically) ethnic groups unite against Moscow rule?
Could we imagine Mongolia and,/or China helping them do that,?
- Aug 24, 2020
- 5,355
I'll start with your last question. Could we imagine Mongolia and/or China helping them unite against Moscow? No, I don't think so. But I can absolutely see China using the (veiled) threat of that as leverage. China has invited Putin for talks on the war in May. I don't know what the agenda will be, but I can guess - a repeated call to stop the conflict, and maybe another offer to broker a peace deal. If you believe Peter Zeihan's demographics, China has its own problems and is looking longingly at Lake Baikal as a source of fresh water. So a long shot may be that there will be an offer of a deal on the table. Water for their continuing support? With the unsaid and unwritten alternative clear in Putin's mind? Pure speculation of course.
I can't see many ethnic groups uniting, precisely because they are so disparate, with little or no organised dissent, and little commonality - apart from having a common deeply unpopular ruling political class, based in Moscow. So the key to any decisive ethnic unrest, if it were to happen, may not lie in unity, but in Moscow.
If any hope exists, it may exist in the chance of Moscow's command and control relaxing, or being forced to relax, its iron grip on the republics. It is possible this process could begin if/when Moscow's income streams run dry and the pay cheques for the enforcers begin to bounce. Imagine a slow, disorganised chaotic withdrawal of the state machine. Silence where propaganda once was, the local FSB, Rosvgardia and police going incommunicado and an absence of Moscow based government representatives making speeches to answer important questions.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 5,355
