- Oct 17, 2008
- 10,723
And would’ve got several more (around 13 I believe) with one form of PR based on their vote share.
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[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...
- Thread starter TomandJerry
- Start date
I think his immediate predecessor is also very much of the opinion that she was right and everyone else was wrong as well, to be fair.
- Oct 17, 2008
- 10,723
I didn’t mean exit polls; but rather those from the likes of YouGov and Ipsos polling voting intentions in the lead up to elections. There’s some interesting stuff from the LSE available showing voting intentions compared to votes received over the last 5 or so decades. Tories consistently outperform polled stated voting intentions
Labour in Kingswood actually got fewer votes than the majority the Tories held from 2019. Turn out massively down.
IIRC, the polling orgs have mostly adjusted their methodology now to try to take account for "shy Tories". I guess we'll see how well they've done with that at the next GE.
chickens
Intending to survive this time of asset strippers
- Oct 12, 2022
- 1,876
I’m predicting that Rishi is going to be pushed into announcing an election date by his own party.
His instinct will be to hold on as long as possible, in the hope that there’s an upturn in the party’s fortunes, while those with an axe to grind will grumble and organize below him.
Should there be any sign of an organized coup he’ll immediately push the election button in order to save himself.
Given the absolute state of the Conservative Party, and today’s by-election results, I reckon he has weeks rather than months. His survival (to my mind) depends on the quality of his sources inside the many rival factions within the party.
I don’t believe there’s anyone within the current Conservative Party who’s currently thinking about the country as a whole.
His instinct will be to hold on as long as possible, in the hope that there’s an upturn in the party’s fortunes, while those with an axe to grind will grumble and organize below him.
Should there be any sign of an organized coup he’ll immediately push the election button in order to save himself.
Given the absolute state of the Conservative Party, and today’s by-election results, I reckon he has weeks rather than months. His survival (to my mind) depends on the quality of his sources inside the many rival factions within the party.
I don’t believe there’s anyone within the current Conservative Party who’s currently thinking about the country as a whole.
Greg Bobkin
Silver Seagull
- May 22, 2012
- 14,870
One party should just use that: 'THREE WORD SLOGAN'Historically, whoever comes up with the best 3 word slogan
And then have ALL of their policies in the same format:
FIX THE NHS
EQUALITY RULES OK
STOP BEING TWATS
PEACE NOT WAR
NO TO VAR
JAFFA CAKE CAKE
BOURBONS BEST BISCUIT
BE KINDER PLEASE
IGNORE ARGUMENTATIVE STRANGERS
BUILD THE STATUES
JUSTICE FOR MONORAIL
Since they tweaked methods this isn’t the case anymore is it? 5 decades has seen a massive change in how polling works. The polls before the 2019 election nailed it.
Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia
In 2017 it was the same.
Opinion polling for the 2017 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia
In 2015 it was a couple of percentage points lower.
The 'shy tory'.
Yes, there are millions of voters who will vote tory and would prefer to not admit it.
I would imagine they are the sort of people who, if they found a wallet on the street with money in it, would keep it.
SEND THEM BACKOne party should just use that: 'THREE WORD SLOGAN'
And then have ALL of their policies in the same format:
FIX THE NHS
EQUALITY RULES OK
STOP BEING TWATS
PEACE NOT WAR
NO TO VAR
JAFFA CAKE CAKE
BOURBONS BEST BISCUIT
BE KINDER PLEASE
IGNORE ARGUMENTATIVE STRANGERS
BUILD THE STATUES
JUSTICE FOR MONORAIL
PROTECT OUR BORDERS
NO NEW TAXES
STOP THE SCROUNGERS
GENDER CANNOT CHANGE
LABOUR ISN'T WORKING
OVEN READY DEAL
LIFE MEANS LIFE
WHAT ABOUT CORBYN
RELEASE THE BATS
- Oct 17, 2008
- 10,723
NO MUSIC THREADS?One party should just use that: 'THREE WORD SLOGAN'
And then have ALL of their policies in the same format:
FIX THE NHS
EQUALITY RULES OK
STOP BEING TWATS
PEACE NOT WAR
NO TO VAR
JAFFA CAKE CAKE
BOURBONS BEST BISCUIT
BE KINDER PLEASE
IGNORE ARGUMENTATIVE STRANGERS
BUILD THE STATUES
JUSTICE FOR MONORAIL
Greg Bobkin
Silver Seagull
- May 22, 2012
- 14,870
Trouble is, most of those have been done. For real – without a HINT of irony/sarcasm/humour.
TomandJerry
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2013
- 11,540
- Thread starter
- #22,073
Mr Caption Obvious
"A vote for anyone who isn’t the Conservative candidate, whether that’s Reform or anyone else, is just a vote to put Keir Starmer in power." - Rishi
"A vote for anyone who isn’t the Conservative candidate, whether that’s Reform or anyone else, is just a vote to put Keir Starmer in power." - Rishi
Cordwainer
Well-known member
- Jul 30, 2023
- 340
JRM accusing others of arrogance. Another nail in irony’s coffin.
Glawstergull
Well-known member
This dinosaur doesn't help the conservative cause let alone relate to most of the people he represents. He is a product of the political game as is the new MP for Kingswood.
Greg Bobkin
Silver Seagull
- May 22, 2012
- 14,870
HARRY FOR PM!
KZNSeagull
Well-known member
Indeed. Under PR we would be looking at potentially getting a lot of seats for less popular parties some of which would be welcome, some not. Under FPTP Labour should win by default.
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
It was arrogance from the Conservatives. They recalled Peter Bone because of his sexual activities, and instead of finding a suitable candidate, the local Tories chose his girlfriend, because of threats from him that he would stand as an independent. By staying away the staunch Conservatives showed the local party members what they thought of that. Abstention is a valid 'vote'.
mikeyjh
Well-known member
KZNSeagull
Well-known member
It is but the Bone and his girlfriend business doesn't apply to Kingswood. Perhaps I am posting on the wrong thread but I would think that Labour should be extremely worried that people are not enthused enough to come out and vote for them yet.