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[Politics] If you are 90% sure, are you sure or not sure

If you are 90% sure, are you sure or not sure

  • 90% sure means SURE

    Votes: 11 26.8%

  • 90% sure means NOT SURE

    Votes: 30 73.2%
  • Total voters
    41


Hamilton

Hamilton

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 7, 2003
12,466
Brighton
An MP quoted in the Boris Johnson partygate evidence has said was "90% sure" the senior civil servant Simon Case agreed with Johnson during a meeting that all Covid rules had been obeyed.

Is 90% sure a case of being sure, or does that 10% mean she is not sure?
 






MJsGhost

MJsGhost

Remembers
NSC Patron
Jun 26, 2009
4,484
East
1679493294238.png
 


beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,312
the logic is 90% sure is near completely sure. otoh the language means you're not sure, you have some doubt. so depends on the person. eitherway they dont know or dont want to commit.
 


Guy Fawkes

Guy Fawkes

The voice of treason
Sep 29, 2007
8,205
If you were asked what you were doing at exactly 2:30 last Tuesday, most could give a very good guess as to what they were doing, but there would be a small chance that their guess is inaccurate (not intentionally) but it was extremely likely that the answer you'd given was factually correct
hence why someone may answer i'm 90% certain is was doing this at that time
Factor in a greater amount of time passing and the likelyhood of being able to be 100% sure what you were doing at that precise time would lessen, but it's likely your guess would remain the same.

Does that mean you are either sure or lying about what you were doing at that time? Surely it simply means you are pretty confident about your answer being accurate, but can't be 100% guaranteed it.

This will apply to most things in life for everyone (espeically conversations and alike) so unless the conversation was recorded or minuted, there could always be an element of doubt about the accuracy of recall of what exactly was said and how it was said and different parties in that conversation can have differing recollections of that conversation (but they tend to be very similar)
 
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WATFORD zero

WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
25,864
Hamilton said:
An MP quoted in the Boris Johnson partygate evidence has said was "90% sure" the senior civil servant Simon Case agreed with Johnson during a meeting that all Covid rules had been obeyed.

Is 90% sure a case of being sure, or does that 10% mean she is not sure?
Click to expand...
It means that she believes her career would progress more by backing Johnson at this moment in time (or he has dirt on her) :wink:
 












jakarta

jakarta

Well-known member
May 25, 2007
15,632
Sullington
Schrödinger's cat - it is alive or dead... ???

To get back to the subject of the oaf, clearly either a liar/totally incompetent /both...
 




Swansman

Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
Nothing wrong with saying 90% sure.

No need to turn common, reasonable things Boris said into something else... plenty of unreasonable things to pick from.
 








R

rool

Well-known member
Jul 10, 2003
6,031
Guy Fawkes said:
If you were asked what you were doing at exactly 2:30 last Tuesday, most could give a very good guess as to what they were doing, but there would be a small chance that their guess is inaccurate (not intentionally) but it was extremely likely that the answer you'd given was factually correct
hence why someone may answer i'm 90% certain is was doing this at that time
Factor in a greater amount of time passing and the likelyhood of being able to be 100% sure what you were doing at that precise time would lessen, but it's likely your guess would remain the same.

Does that mean you are either sure or lying about what you were doing at that time? Surely it simply means you are pretty confident about your answer being accurate, but can't be 100% guaranteed it.

This will apply to most things in life for everyone (espeically conversations and alike) so unless the conversation was recorded or minuted, there could always be an element of doubt about the accuracy of recall of what exactly was said and how it was said and different parties in that conversation can have differing recollections of that conversation (but they tend to be very similar)
Click to expand...

I always think I'd be stuffed if the police asked me where I was on Wednesday 15th of last month, for example, like on the films.
It's not like I keep a diary and unless there's a football match on or something I have no chance of remembering what I was up to unless I had murdered someone of course.
 


Coldeanseagull

Coldeanseagull

Opinionated
Mar 13, 2013
7,787
Coldean
rool said:
I always think I'd be stuffed if the police asked me where I was on Wednesday 15th of last month, for example, like on the films.
It's not like I keep a diary and unless there's a football match on or something I have no chance of remembering what I was up to unless I had murdered someone of course.
Click to expand...
Being married for 40 years, my wife can recall EVERY little thing from that 40 years.....to the second!
 


Gabbiano

Gabbiano

Well-known member
Dec 18, 2017
1,267
Spank the Manc
If you replace the word “sure” for the word “certain” it’s clearer.

Certain is an absolute but things can have degrees of certainty.

Similarly 90% sure is not “sure” but is 90% of the way there.

Either way Boris is lying out his arse
 










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