[Albion] How many points to survive Premier League relegation this season?

Bozza · Jan 21, 2023

If teams continue to accrue points at the same rate they have thus far, the safety line would be at 33 points...

Bournemouth 17 points from 20 games: 32.3 points
Everton - 15 points from 20 games: 28.5 points
Southampton - 15 points from 20 games: 28.5 points

...all of which has us sitting pretty on 31 points after 19 games.

Points to be safe over recent seasons:

2021/22 - 36 points
2020/21 - 29 points
2019/20 - 35 points
2018/19 - 35 points
2017/18 - 34 points
2016/17 - 35 points
2015/16 - 38 points
2014/15 - 36 points

Could we be looking at another "weak" season as was the case in 20/21...

Bombardier · Jan 21, 2023

well, we won’t be going down this season that’s for sure.

Pevenseagull · Jan 21, 2023

IF we had won today we would have been on target to pick up enough points from away games to stay up.

Gabbafella · Jan 21, 2023

All I know is it's much nicer looking up than it is looking down.
To be where we are in the table, and with games in hand over teams around us, way more fun than all that stress and gloom at the bottom. Long may it continue.

Muhammed - I’m hard - Bruce Lee · Jan 22, 2023

Another 3 wins and we’re safe

B-right-on · Jan 22, 2023

I think we might be ok. Not counting chicks yet...

Badger · Jan 22, 2023

Bozza said:
If teams continue to accrue points at the same rate they have thus far, the safety line would be at 33 points...

Bournemouth 17 points from 20 games: 32.3 points
Everton - 15 points from 20 games: 28.5 points
Southampton - 15 points from 20 games: 28.5 points

I think these are the three teams which will go down. I reckon at least one of them will put on a mini recovery and get a few wins. Maybe they'll reach 36 points.

Bozza · Jan 22, 2023

Badger said:
I think these are the three teams which will go down. I reckon at least one of them will put on a mini recovery and get a few wins. Maybe they'll reach 36 points.

Everton certainly have the potential for that.

Get a new manager in, the crowd rallies behind him and they grind out a few results. Pretty much what they did last season in fact.

Weststander · Jan 22, 2023

My instinct is 35.

Meaning Everton need 20 points from their remaining 18 games.

el punal · Jan 22, 2023

I just don’t where the points are going to come from - my thoughts after we lost 2-0 at home to Cardiff back in 2019. I think we might be okay this time round - 5 points from the next 19 games is just about do-able. :drink:

dazzer6666 · Jan 22, 2023

Will be interesting to look back at the end of the season and work out when we were actually safe…..what’s the earliest (fewest games) that’s been in the PL ?

Harry Wilson's tackle · Jan 22, 2023

Bozza said:
If teams continue to accrue points at the same rate they have thus far, the safety line would be at 33 points...

Bournemouth 17 points from 20 games: 32.3 points
Everton - 15 points from 20 games: 28.5 points
Southampton - 15 points from 20 games: 28.5 points

...all of which has us sitting pretty on 31 points after 19 games.

Points to be safe over recent seasons:

2021/22 - 36 points
2020/21 - 29 points
2019/20 - 35 points
2018/19 - 35 points
2017/18 - 34 points
2016/17 - 35 points
2015/16 - 38 points
2014/15 - 36 points

Could we be looking at another "weak" season as was the case in 20/21...

View attachment 156067

Strictly speaking, the number of points needed to be safe isn't simply one more than the team in 18th. It is the number of points obtained by the team in 17th at the moment the teams below can't catch them. This is normally reached before the end of the season (as was the case above). One point more than the team in 18th at the end of the season falsely informs a narrative of there being a 'target' to stay up. Ironically 21/2 wasn't a 'weak' season - it was a strong one where the team in 17th (and above) got more points than usual, and the bottom three were proportionately bereft. The strength of a season is possibly best measured by the total number of points obtained out of a maximum obtainable. The maximum obtainable is that obtained if no games are drawn. To be honest, I might 'feel' that a season is stronger if every game was drawn. I'm not sure. At the end of the day, it is what it is.

Bozza · Jan 22, 2023

Harry Wilson's tackle said:
Strictly speaking, the number of points needed to be safe isn't simply one more than the team in 18th.

Indeed - which is exactly how I created the past seasons list. 18th+1 point.

Harry Wilson's tackle · Jan 22, 2023

Gabbafella said:
All I know is it's much nicer looking up than it is looking down.
To be where we are in the table, and with games in hand over teams around us, way more fun than all that stress and gloom at the bottom. Long may it continue.

If you are top of the league you can look only down, and if you are bottom you can look only up.

I know what you mean, of course and, yes, it is rather lovely :rave:

Harry Wilson's tackle · Jan 22, 2023

Bozza said:
Indeed - which is exactly how I created the past seasons list. 18th+1 point.

Indeed. As a statistic.....it is the only one that can be generated by the same calculation, season on season.

I was thinking about the conversations in pressers about having a 'target' to stay up. Managers should always poo-poo that question, because it is a moving feast.

Official Old Man · Jan 22, 2023

Harry Wilson's tackle said:
Strictly speaking, the number of points needed to be safe isn't simply one more than the team in 18th. It is the number of points obtained by the team in 17th at the moment the teams below can't catch them. This is normally reached before the end of the season (as was the case above). One point more than the team in 18th at the end of the season falsely informs a narrative of there being a 'target' to stay up. Ironically 21/2 wasn't a 'weak' season - it was a strong one where the team in 17th (and above) got more points than usual, and the bottom three were proportionately bereft. The strength of a season is possibly best measured by the total number of points obtained out of a maximum obtainable. The maximum obtainable is that obtained if no games are drawn. To be honest, I might 'feel' that a season is stronger if every game was drawn. I'm not sure. At the end of the day, it is what it is.

What?
Sorry, these away trips are taking it out on me the morning after. I'm going to try and re-read this later.

Hugo Rune · Jan 22, 2023

I think we need one more win and can then lose all remaining fixtures and stay up. 34 will be enough to survive.

Swansman · Jan 22, 2023

Usually turns out to be a bit more than it seems in January. Will certainly be a very interesting battle in the bottom. Anyone below Villa could go down.

Dick Swiveller · Jan 22, 2023

Bombardier said:
well, we won’t be going down this season that’s for sure.

Now you've done it. 1000/1 at Bet 365 if anyone believes in jinxing

jackanada · Jan 22, 2023

For a wild ballpark staying up points recalculation at the halfway stage I'd go for twice the points of 18th plus 7.
Allows for a "nothing left to lose" and a "mid table opposition completely on the beach" bonus 6 points.
If someone with more time and less children could check this I'd be grateful.

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[Albion] How many points to survive Premier League relegation this season?

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