Recent content by Mtoto

Ile Atlantique is out again in the two-and-a-half mile Grade One novice hurdle at Aintree tomorrow. Around 7-1 in the early prices.

Another Flat horse making its debut tomorrow: American Riddle (US Navy Flag ex Puzzled) goes in the 6.00 at Kempton. Three years old, running over a mile, might want further in time as Puzzled was half-sister to a Derby runner-up. Cost 70k as a yearling, probably one to watch rather than back I...

Alpine Oasis is back in action in the 5.10 at Chelmsford tomorrow. £18k to the winner so very competitive for a Class 5, tricky draw in stall 14 too, but opening mark of 74 looks pretty fair (Timeform speed figure for last month's win was 71).

https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/former-premier-league-striker-handed-exclusion-order-by-the-bha-after-failing-to-cooperate-with-investigation-anEHp6B8FdDk/

Walk past it pretty much daily. Before the refurb it was always empty. Then went past one day a few months back and they were selling all the tables and chairs on the street outside, and boarding up the windows. It re-opened a couple of weeks later looking pretty much like it had before...

One of the advantages of decimal odds is that you can divide the decimal price into 100 to get the percentage chance it implies, and vice versa. So 3.5 implies 100/3.5 = 28.6pc chance, while a 25pc chance is 100/25 = 4 (or 3-1 in old money). Opta's model had Chelsea as 44pc chances for the...

Current best odds for a top 4 finish are 9-4, so top 5 would be around 7-4. Current best odds to win the Europa League: 14-1.

It's a three-horse race - the draw was a bigger runner than an AEK win (about 6-1 I think). They basically work out the draw/away odds as a function of the shortest price, so if a home team is 1-5, like we were last night, the draw/away odds will always be around 6-1 and 14-1.

Broady played exceptionally well, but Ruud said afterwards that he thought LB was a better player than him on grass, so he'd accepted at least the fair possibility of defeat before he set foot on the court. He'll never get much further than R2 with that attitude, no matter what he's seeded...

The Betfair market definitely fancies our chances:

The bet is for relegation, not staying up, and the current top price (for relegation) is 13-2 against. £30 returns £225 including stake. This implies they are long odds-on to stay up.

You could add in Encanto Bruno for a treble if he hadn't fecked off to Chelsea.

Think that has to be the shortest price we've been. Looked back through last three seasons & shortest odds in each (Bet365) were: 21/22: 1.5 vs Norwich 20/21: 1.65 vs Sheff Utd 19/20: 1.66 vs Villa Drew all three.

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/endgame-for-putin/id1462649946?i=1000580914173 Thought this podcast was fascinating, Russian interviewee suggests we should already be trying to look beyond Putin to how Russia can be repaired once he's gone.

That might be true if you were just looking at, say, the last 2 or 3 months, but the available evidence suggests we do the opposite - don't succumb to recency bias, look at a player's career as a whole, think about how they have progressed to date and how much more there is to come in another...