[Albion] Season Ticket Numbers

[Cowfold Seagull]

Because I think that this time the Government will take a slower approach to opening society back up, and large attendance events will be towards the rear. The focus will be in schools and High Streets to enable financial support to be vastly reduced.
I also believe that will be a significant number of people who won't (for whatever foolish reason) be willing to have the jab, leaving the virus circulating.

Hopefully I'm wrong and things move quicker, but I'm just a pessimist.

I'd call you a realist, not a pessimist. Having said that l sincerely hope that you/we are wrong.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I think that the events over the last few months or so have taught me that it's best not to get carried away and look too far ahead, it will be baby steps for some time yet, but we will get there eventually.

We just have to admit that we don’t know. No shame in that. It’s the reason I err on the side of caution whenever people are making positive predictions about the opening up of society and/or an end to the pandemic. It’s also the reason I avoid the unrelenting positive spin of the Coronavirus Good News thread ! It’s like predicting a home league win... one day that thread will be right.

 

[Bry Nylon]

Two questions need to be asked here, how much protection does just one inoculation give you? and how long will it last for?

Well, exactly. That's the kind of really important stuff nobody really knows yet as this vaccine has been developed, distributed and administered in < 9 months. That's why vaccines normally take 10+ years in trials so all this is known and understood and mitigated for. But the C19 situation has denied us that luxury so we are pressing ahead, in the knowledge that it is safe but the level of on-going protection it offers is unknown.

Therefore, anyone thinking "Great, I've had a jab. (or even 2 jabs) I'm immune plus I'm not infectious!" is playing a dangerous game. I'd say, let's just get everybody vaccinated first and then see what the rate of transmission looks like once we have a decent data set and some history to consider. The biggset challenge now is going to be managing behaviour and expectations.

 

[crodonilson]

At current (and increasing) rates, first doses will be finished way before September. More like April/May - assume say 50m left to do at 4m per week, will be done in 3 months or so. Once we have virtually everyone vaccinated they won’t need to insist on proof of vaccine because the numbers that haven’t had it won’t be material anyway.

I think you've failed to factor into your calculations the 2nd vaccinations that will need to begin to take place concurrently with first vaccinations soon. The vaccine programme really started ramping up in the 2nd week of January so 12 weeks from then takes us to the end of March. Fortunately at the current rates of vaccinations and if supplies hold up we should be ablew to give all people in the 2nd group of priorities their first vaccination by then, but then we will have to adminsiter 3/4m 2nd jabs a week from then for the next 3 months, this will mean a big slowdown in the number of first vaccinations we can give and mans we probably will be able to vaccinate the lower risk groups mostly through the summer from June to September (the governments staed aim was everyone to have their first jab by end of September).

Once everyone has had one jab at this point and all of the lower risk have had their 2nd jab (and we will have approx 3-6 months of data on the effacacy of the jabs and the effects on positive cases, hospitalisations and deaths) we should be able to significantly ramp up allowble capacities at sporting and other public events. However at this point we will be into the autumn where we know these respiratory illnesses can really take off and potential mutations so I think out of an abundance of caution the government even with a nearly fully vaccinated public will tread very carefully through next autumn and winter. If we can get through this period without serious mishap and the vaccine is working 'd hope we can look at a return to full stadia in Spring 2022.

 

[dazzer6666]

I think you've failed to factor into your calculations the 2nd vaccinations that will need to begin to take place concurrently with first vaccinations soon. The vaccine programme really started ramping up in the 2nd week of January so 12 weeks from then takes us to the end of March. Fortunately at the current rates of vaccinations and if supplies hold up we should be ablew to give all people in the 2nd group of priorities their first vaccination by then, but then we will have to adminsiter 3/4m 2nd jabs a week from then for the next 3 months, this will mean a big slowdown in the number of first vaccinations we can give and mans we probably will be able to vaccinate the lower risk groups mostly through the summer from June to September (the governments staed aim was everyone to have their first jab by end of September).

Once everyone has had one jab at this point and all of the lower risk have had their 2nd jab (and we will have approx 3-6 months of data on the effacacy of the jabs and the effects on positive cases, hospitalisations and deaths) we should be able to significantly ramp up allowble capacities at sporting and other public events. However at this point we will be into the autumn where we know these respiratory illnesses can really take off and potential mutations so I think out of an abundance of caution the government even with a nearly fully vaccinated public will tread very carefully through next autumn and winter. If we can get through this period without serious mishap and the vaccine is working 'd hope we can look at a return to full stadia in Spring 2022.

Not really - was only a rough stab, and none of us know how many we're going to peak at - we're already at 3m per week and new (large) centres are opening all the time (like in Brighton today which was one of several across the country). In the meantime I'll continue to be optimistic - if nothing else it makes me feel better, rather than looking at the negative side all the time - there's enough of that about as it is.

 

[Nitram]

The more I read about how this is panning out, especially with the Covid variants the less I think we will be back to any normality by the new season. Hope I’m wrong but can’t see any full houses for next season.

 

[BNthree]

The more I read about how this is panning out, especially with the Covid variants the less I think we will be back to any normality by the new season. Hope I’m wrong but can’t see any full houses for next season.

Got to say I agree with you. That's not being negative, just pragmatic. Can see fans being allowed back next season but in some sort of restricted way.

 

[Justice]

Because I think that this time the Government will take a slower approach to opening society back up, and large attendance events will be towards the rear. The focus will be in schools and High Streets to enable financial support to be vastly reduced.
I also believe that will be a significant number of people who won't (for whatever foolish reason) be willing to have the jab, leaving the virus circulating.

Hopefully I'm wrong and things move quicker, but I'm just a pessimist.

Why did you need to add the word foolish? Not everyone agrees to having something pumped into their body they know very little about.

 

[Weststander]

Not really - was only a rough stab, and none of us know how many we're going to peak at - we're already at 3m per week and new (large) centres are opening all the time (like in Brighton today which was one of several across the country). In the meantime I'll continue to be optimistic - if nothing else it makes me feel better, rather than looking at the negative side all the time - there's enough of that about as it is.

I agree with all your posts in this thread. The vaccination programme is an unqualified success and that was before the new centres which opened today. The Brighton Centre alone will see 91,000 vaccinations a month in a city of 300,000, where the programme was running well already; doctors surgeries, hospitals and Brighton Racecourse being used like a machine.

I also share your view about pent up demand for the pleasures in life such as spectator sports, trips to the country, meals out and dare I say holidays. These are going to be appreciated like never before.

I temper this with the knowledge that many people have been hit hard financially, which is only going to get worse once Furlough is phased out and some businesses are forced to lay off staff.

 

[jamie the seagull]

With SAGE now in charge of the country and a Government that turns to Tiers and Lockdowns at the first sight of a bad Headline cannot see any way out.
Vaccines will not affect any decision going forward as Lockdown or Tiers which are basically the same thing will be the first course of action and not the extreme.
Got my head round the fact they will lock the country down every January.
Government could not give a toss about football (Elite, Non Elite or Grassroots) so don't bother waiting for help from them (either party as they are all voting the same way).
Can only see crowds being limited to season tickets only going forward in the very long future and they will stop Clubs selling every seat in this manner to ensure Grounds are never full.
As an example 20,000 people in our 33,000 Ground.

 

[Sheebo]

We have this thread every season, regardless of covid. We have. Large waiting list. We will be fine to sell the 23k - lots of scaremongering in threads like this every blooming season. Imo obviously.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Why did you need to add the word foolish? Not everyone agrees to having something pumped into their body they know very little about.

I’ve just edited out my initial sarcastic response but your comment is a bit ridiculous. Read up about the history of vaccination and have a think about whether you want to die from Covid, gasping for breath on ICU.

 

[Justice]

I’ve just edited out my initial sarcastic response but your comment is a bit ridiculous. Read up about the history of vaccination and have a think about whether you want to die from Covid, gasping for breath on ICU.

You think free will is ridiculous?

 

[seagullwedgee]

Isn’t the logic of turning down the COVID 19 vaccine the same as saying “I know people say ‘wear a seatbelt when driving because it will save your life’ but I’m not so sure, I’m worried it might decapitate me in an accident, so I wont wear it”.

Seatbelts have been thoroughly tested. They’re safe. Vaccines have been thoroughly tested, they’re safe.
Of course, if you choose to go driving without a seatbelt, that is indeed your choice. Good luck with that.

 

[Bombadier Botty]

Why did you need to add the word foolish? Not everyone agrees to having something pumped into their body they know very little about.

Yep, my parents, both in their 80s, have refused it for exactly that reason.

 

[seagullwedgee]

It looks like uptake in the over 80s group is about 82%. I genuinely do fear for those who have been unable or unwilling to receive the vaccine, but we have to respect their choice, or the choice of anyone they have legally empowered to decide for them.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

With SAGE now in charge of the country and a Government that turns to Tiers and Lockdowns at the first sight of a bad Headline cannot see any way out.
Vaccines will not affect any decision going forward as Lockdown or Tiers which are basically the same thing will be the first course of action and not the extreme.
Got my head round the fact they will lock the country down every January.
Government could not give a toss about football (Elite, Non Elite or Grassroots) so don't bother waiting for help from them (either party as they are all voting the same way).
Can only see crowds being limited to season tickets only going forward in the very long future and they will stop Clubs selling every seat in this manner to ensure Grounds are never full.
As an example 20,000 people in our 33,000 Ground.

Lol.

They dither and delay and lockdown way too late every time - costing lives and ending up prolonging the lockdown.

 

[bobbysmith01]

It's a big question. Had the Barber email re 1901 renewal and more news to follow, which I expect will be increased prices. I have retired since last renewal, so money tighter. Will have to have a big think about committing for another 5 years. This is nothing against the club or the way it's run, it's Personal to me. Covid and VAR had dramatically reduced my enjoyment of football. Gut feel is I will renew, as long as they don't price me out of the market, as I miss my mates and the whole match day experience, but it will be a very hard decision. Right Mr Barber, make me want to renew.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[dazzer6666]

Whilst the club are obviously suffering some degree of financial hardship the fact that they just paid out £25K for IT for kids (that Boris promised the government would supply - and then didn't) I'm not sure that the club is quite at the point of "rummaging down the back of the sofa" just yet.

I think that came from the charitable fund the players and staff kicked off, not the club. The club have just announced huge losses and this year will be the same. Luckily there is no sign from TB that our strategy has changed.

 

[nwgull]

Plenty of pent up demand so no trouble selling out the 23K season tickets, I reckon. If we can still get over 18K to renew after the Sami season then I can't see 18 months of closed stadia and the back end of a pandemic putting that many people off renewing or taking up the opportunity to get their first season ticket. Put it this way, can you see the boozers being quiet when they open up back to normal later this year?

I'm confident that we'll be back to something like normal in the autumn. There's about 30 weeks until the 21/22 season would normally start, by which time there will have been sufficient time to give the entire adult (and vulnerable <18) population 2 shots. Even when we just get to the <50s it will massively ease the burden on the NHS, which is the most important thing, and those that decide not to take it have their free will to do so in the same way that they have their freedom to take up base jumping or bull fighting.