England had highest excess death rate in Europe over first half of 2020

[WATFORD zero]

Now I'm aware that there is a coronavirus subsection which was heavily used during the height of the Pandemic and the Covid good news thread that was kept running during the pandemic for those who were finding the constant negative Pandemic news across the world distressing.

Throughout the height of the Pandemic I believe these were both positive things to do, as were the many posts that said we should not try to assess what was happening whilst the pandemic was at it's height.

We are now, undoubtedly (and thankfully) over the first phase of the pandemic. It may (or may not) have further phases and be part of our lives for the next few years and something we may have to adapt to,

So given that we are either over the worst, or in the lull between 'waves' and are in a position to objectively assess the impact, what are people's opinions on the way the pandemic has been handled. The Office for National Statistics published today that England has the highest death rate over the first half of 2020 across the whole of Europe (whether that be for the total pandemic or the first phase) ? I believe that it is accepted that given the various Government's differing ways of assessing Covid deaths, and changes to individual Government's reporting over time, that total excess deaths is the one validly comparable figure across nations.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-england-had-highest-excess-deaths-in-europe-over-first-half-of-2020-ons-says-12038964

What do you believe are the reasons behind these figures ? Have we been unfortunate in the situation that the UK have found ourselves in or are there specific things you believe should have been done differently, to have got a different result ? And what have we learned from the first phase ?

 

[blue-shifted]

Now I'm aware that there is a coronavirus subsection which was heavily used during the height of the Pandemic and the Covid good news thread that was kept running during the pandemic for those who were finding the constant negative Pandemic news across the world distressing.

Throughout the height of the Pandemic I believe these were both positive things to do, as were the many posts that said we should not try to assess what was happening whilst the pandemic was at it's height.

We are now, undoubtedly (and thankfully) over the first phase of the pandemic. It may (or may not) have further phases and be part of our lives for the next few years and something we may have to adapt to,

So given that we are either over the worst, or in the lull between 'waves' and are in a position to objectively assess the impact, what are people's opinions on the fact published today by the Office for National Statistics that England has the highest death rate over the first half of 2020 across the whole of Europe (whether that be for the total pandemic or the first phase) ? I believe that it is accepted that given the various Government's differing ways of assessing Covid deaths, and changes to individual Government's reporting over time, that total excess deaths is the one validly comparable figure across nations.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-england-had-highest-excess-deaths-in-europe-over-first-half-of-2020-ons-says-12038964

What do you believe are the reasons behind these figures ? Have we been unfortunate in the situation that the UK have found ourselves in or are there specific things you believe should have been done differently, to have got a different result ? And what have we learned from the first phase ?

Firstly I don't believe there's a continued justification for separating out the COVID threads, as hardly anyone posts on them. I said that on the main Coronavirus thread, but don't think anyone noticed.

Secondly, I think the reasons we've performed so badly have been fairly well discussed. There's strong evidence that pragmatic governments who have competent people in situ have reacted quickly and minimised the spread (S Korea, Germany, NZ etc) whereas governments stocked with ideologues who were elected not because anyone thought they would be administratively competent but because they have strong populist appeal, (UK, US, Brazil) have done appallingly.

Not sure what i've done for this thread's survival chances ... oh well

 

[The Wizard]

The fact we are one of, if not the most unhealthy country in Europe probably doesn’t help.

 

[Mellotron]

I don’t think anyone could honestly look themselves in the mirror and say we’ve dealt with it “well”.

How badly though, is hard to judge.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I'm sure someone called Gone Off Shoes or whatever will be along soon to tell us how fantastically well we've handled it, and it couldn't have been done any better.

 

[beorhthelm]

quite old news. mostly caused by NHS policy to push people into care homes or not take admissions. something not shown by Sky and i doubt ONS, is the proportion of non-covid excess deaths, about 40% when i last look (June data).

 

[Chicken Run]

Now I'm aware that there is a coronavirus subsection which was heavily used during the height of the Pandemic and the Covid good news thread that was kept running during the pandemic for those who were finding the constant negative Pandemic news across the world distressing.

This isn’t good news so well done at least for not posting you’re tiresome opinions in that thread, the pandemic isn’t over you tool, why can’t you stay in your cave and shout there ffs, i just don’t get your obsession to get your repetitive ramblings onto the main board.

 

[BN41Albion]

I'm not sure how accurate those stats are. How could France, for example, only have a 0.2% increase? That can't be correct, surely.

The whole comparison between countries has to be taken with a pinch of salt anyway considering the way deaths were counted in different countries. Its interesting, but we really can't say for certain that the stats are entirely correct

Edit : I suppose excess deaths is quite a straightforward statistic. Still unsure how France can only be 0.2% increase though

 

[vegster]

Probably best for the government to get this thread kicked in to the long grass, along with the Brexit ****ups and the subsequent calamitous damage to the British economy and society........ now's not the time, best wait til Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Cummings et al have retired from public life and have gold plated pensions and directorships to fall back on. A "World Beating " public Inquiry is what is called for but, there is no chance of getting one.

 

[GT49er]

100% agree. COVID is surely the most significant human event since the war.

Granted NSC is a football forum, but it is also a community that discusses a range of topics, certainly this one shouldn't be excluded.

In regards to how it was handled, as much as I dislike the Conservatives, it is an impossible problem for any government. They will continue have to make horrible decisions - the problem has always been saving lives versus saving the economy, based on very loose and ever changing scientific evidence. A recession, or depression, will lead to many further lost lives, and is also an important factor all will be considering.

I don't think we will be able to truly judge any nation on how they have fared, until this year has been studied for generations to come.

Absolutely this. That won't stop the responses getting more and more vitriolic though - reckon this could soon be in the bear pit.

 

[The Wizard]

Can always count on Vegster to start the descent into the bear pit.

 

[Hampster Gull]

The government have been a bit shit on this one on pretty well every comparator metric. Let’s see how the economy fairs relative to others, hopefully better but too early to say. Luckily Brexit is going well

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

quite old news. mostly caused by NHS policy to push people into care homes or not take admissions. something not shown by Sky and i doubt ONS, is the proportion of non-covid excess deaths, about 40% when i last look (June data).

The reason this measure is used is that factors such as population demographics, disease incidence, social factors and different healthcare systems are less liable to skew the data. A measure of excess deaths also tends to level out any differences in the way deaths are counted. It allows us to see the full impact of COVID-19 on mortality, including deaths that were not directly attributable to the virus.

But you’re saying the counting of Covid deaths, and the varying ways they’re counted, is being put back into the mix? This defeats the object of the excess deaths measure.

Where did you see this?

 

[darkwolf666]

Probably best for the government to get this thread kicked in to the long grass, along with the Brexit ****ups and the subsequent calamitous damage to the British economy and society........ now's not the time, best wait til Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Cummings et al have retired from public life and have gold plated pensions and directorships to fall back on. A "World Beating " public Inquiry is what is called for but, there is no chance of getting one.

World beating - if I hear that meaningless crap expression once more from Boris or one of his political pygmies I am going to put my foot through the TV...

No, they can’t be blamed for ALL that has gone wrong, but it’s on their watch, and it don’t look good, does it?...

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

As for the original post...it’s pretty obvious.

 

[LamieRobertson]

100% agree. COVID is surely the most significant human event since the war.

Granted NSC is a football forum, but it is also a community that discusses a range of topics, certainly this one shouldn't be excluded.

In regards to how it was handled, as much as I dislike the Conservatives, it is an impossible problem for any government. They will continue have to make horrible decisions - the problem has always been saving lives versus saving the economy, based on very loose and ever changing scientific evidence. A recession, or depression, will lead to many further lost lives, and is also an important factor all will be considering.

I don't think we will be able to truly judge any nation on how they have fared, until this year has been studied for generations to come.

It wasn’t excluded it’s got its own sub forum and let’s face it not many other topics get there own sub forum...if I recall correctly Bozza initiated a vote asking whether people wanted it to remain that way and the majority agreed...for myself I don’t want it back on the main thread ..and if it does I see various threads covering different aspects of the virus popping up....is that really going to be of any benefit? To be frank if it does I’m off not that it’ll be a great loss

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

The whole comparison between countries has to be taken with a pinch of salt anyway considering the way deaths were counted in different countries.

See post 14.

 

[Weststander]

A combination of:

1. Having globally major hub airports, with huge through glow, in Jan, Feb and Mar. It’s no coincidence that the London, Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels and NYC wider regions suffered very badly. Worldometer covered this throughout, with some delving.

2. In hindsight, major errors here. With that hindsight, imho we should’ve locked down a week or two earlier. Care homes weren’t prioritised, with all resources channelled to ICU in hospitals and the Nightingale hospitals. I in no way criticise that emphasis, it was the obvious strategy when seeing the thousands dying in Italian and Spanish hospitals, where doctors had to choose who lives. But if we went through this again, care homes should be put into isolation.

A huge proportion of deaths in Spain, Italy, Sweden and France were in care homes, so we weren’t alone.

3. Our ethnically diverse population. No one knows why yet, but Asian British have suffered disproportionately. It’s fair to say that multi generational households is one of those reasons. The list of Midlands and Northern towns and cities still with high CV19 spread says it all. Did close knit communities abide by social distancing from the get-go? Do they bother now?

4. Then a key question, should we have had a far stricter lockdown, enforced firmly by the police and army as in Italy and Spain? My gut feeling is that awkward/maverick Brits would’ve reacted badly. But there were too many p-takers here throughout, of all age groups. Young lads and couples out socialising, bored silver surfers going to the supermarket every single day for months. This may’ve been a minority, but our CV19 curves dipped at a far gentler rate than that of nearby neighbours.

 

[Weststander]

The fact we are one of, if not the most unhealthy country in Europe probably doesn’t help.

Well, obesity is a key CV19 risk factor.

The UK does obesity well.

 

[portlock seagull]

If there’s one thing I know about data, it can be interpreted a thousand ways. And manipulated similarly. Make of it what you want therefore.