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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]









Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,935
Worthing
If all this build-up leads to nothing (or very little) again, I'll... I'll... *looks around impotently*... I'll be truly disappointed and deflated.
Still, at least it's not raining.

The BBC / Met forecasters are still highlighting the chance of a UK wide snow 'event' on Monday.

So, despite a less than stellar GFS this morning the pros are still on it.

The Met Outlook also keeps the cold with us all next week, as do the ECM ensembles.

If we miss out again I'll join you in the deflated camp.
 


Dec 29, 2012
659
United Kingdom
The BBC / Met forecasters are still highlighting the chance of a UK wide snow 'event' on Monday.

So, despite a less than stellar GFS this morning the pros are still on it.

The Met Outlook also keeps the cold with us all next week, as do the ECM ensembles.

If we miss out again I'll join you in the deflated camp.


Metcheck still showing light snow from tonight in BN17
 


Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,671
The latest output is worrying for Worthing - the Met Office forecast for Fri - Tues only mentions rain early and dry and cold later. Let's hope they change, eh?

That said the latest net weather update has increased the chances of snow in Worthing on Sunday evening and Monday evening. The closer we get I want to see those percentages go up. Excited for the next update....
 




HawkTheSeagull

New member
Jan 31, 2012
9,122
Eastbourne
Metcheck showing for BN22 -

Saturday - Overnight rain followed by sleet for the whole day
Sunday - Sleet and Snow
Monday - Snow turning into sleet
Tuesday - Sleet and Snow
Weds - Sleet
Thursday - Warms up a bit with some heavy rain through to Friday

Also shows a 100% chance of snow on Monday through to Tuesday.

Met Office app shows nothing but rain, Iphone weather app shows rain and some sleet and BBC say heavy rain tomorrow, snow overnight Monday.

Can NONE of them agree about something ?
 


chucky1973

New member
Nov 3, 2010
8,829
Crawley
these weather companies are a joke!! dont they all use the same kit!! Surley they must be able to forecast the weather for the next 24 - 36 hours!! Will it snow tomorrow night?????
 








Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,935
Worthing
these weather companies are a joke!! dont they all use the same kit!! Surley they must be able to forecast the weather for the next 24 - 36 hours!! Will it snow tomorrow night?????

In general they only have the same data to use as the amateurs. Some companies pay a premium price for the ECM data that is not published, and of course only the Met Office use their slew of data.

People like Accuweather use GFS. Metcheck I think also use raw GFS data, so there's hardly a surprise when it looks random. In fact, the BBC 5 day forecast that they plonk on the web page is automated (not sure if it's just GFS), but it makes that output un-reliable.
 






chucky1973

New member
Nov 3, 2010
8,829
Crawley
In general they only have the same data to use as the amateurs. Some companies pay a premium price for the ECM data that is not published, and of course only the Met Office use their slew of data.

People like Accuweather use GFS. Metcheck I think also use raw GFS data, so there's hardly a surprise when it looks random. In fact, the BBC 5 day forecast that they plonk on the web page is automated (not sure if it's just GFS), but it makes that output un-reliable.

I was joking as I imagine its a nightmare to read the weather, but the BBC never seem to get it right, there site is changing by the hour, Crawley temp has risen to 4 tomorrow with rain! This morning it was 2 and snow sleet, but then you look at the others and they predict it getting colder with snow tomorrow night!! Anyway, what will be will be!
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,935
Worthing
I was joking as I imagine its a nightmare to read the weather, but the BBC never seem to get it right, there site is changing by the hour, Crawley temp has risen to 4 tomorrow with rain! This morning it was 2 and snow sleet, but then you look at the others and they predict it getting colder with snow tomorrow night!! Anyway, what will be will be!

Never, and I mean never rely on the 5 day outlook thingy on there. The only BBC output worth taking note of is the broadcast stuff, as that's done by trained Met forecasters, who use the available information and produce a forecast, rather than simply copying a single model's output.
 


chucky1973

New member
Nov 3, 2010
8,829
Crawley
Never, and I mean never rely on the 5 day outlook thingy on there. The only BBC output worth taking note of is the broadcast stuff, as that's done by trained Met forecasters, who use the available information and produce a forecast, rather than simply copying a single model's output.

whats the best forecast to view on the net?
 










jakarta

Well-known member
May 25, 2007
15,652
Sullington
Hello Papa L

Up to Lincolnshire on Tuesday for a Family Funeral the following day.

Given that the Boston area always seems 5 degrees colder than anywhere else on a given day can I presume a wee bit of snow will be there to meet me even if there is none down here in the Soft South? ???
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,935
Worthing
Hello Papa L

Up to Lincolnshire on Tuesday for a Family Funeral the following day.

Given that the Boston area always seems 5 degrees colder than anywhere else on a given day can I presume a wee bit of snow will be there to meet me even if there is none down here in the Soft South? ???

Anywhere could get snow on Monday into Tuesday.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,935
Worthing
And the pendulum swings back again.. the 12Z GFS is much better for cold weather until at least the end of next week.
 


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