[Football] UEFA coefficients and Europe 2025/26

[Hugo Rune]

I reckon 56 points will get 8th place. Do we have it in us to turn around our form and get those points though? Hopefully…

I'll raise you to 61.

And yes, two more wins are possible but we're going to need them as I can see Brentford finishing on at least 59 with a better goal difference.

 

[trueblue]

Race for Europe: How things stand, permutations and remaining fixtures

All you need to know as Premier League clubs try to secure UEFA Champions League, Europa League or Conference League football

www.premierleague.com

@trueblue - Europa place that Chelsea could qualify for by winning the Conference League this year don’t effect English places even if Chelsea finish in top 6, they will qualify for CL or Europa but their Conference League win doesn’t bounce down.

There would be 10 teams in Europe if Chelsea win the Conference League and finish outside top 6 (unlikely) and Spurs or Manure win the Europa, qualifying for the Champions League. However, only 8 will qualify through either the FA Cup (1 x Europa) the Carabao Cup (1 x Conference) or the Premier League - ( 5 x UCL 2 x Europa, 1 x Conference.) but Citeh will need to beat Palace or the FA Europa place will go to Palace and there will only be 7 places through English football.

I’ve no idea what all that means The bottom line is what I posted originally. Dale Johnson is rock solid reliable when it comes to difficult permutations at club and international level. His example above about it dropping to 9th is now a scenario that could have happened in specific circumstances. His article is regularly updated.

 

[Zeberdi]

(

I’ve no idea what all that means

It‘s probably as clear as your attempt

What it means that this VV isn’t correct

but as Chelsea already have a place in the Europa League, the Conference League spot "jumps" over them and goes to ninth.

Conference League qualification only goes to 8th place and will only go to 7th if Palace win the FA Cup.

On the 17th May, I will be very much rooting for Citeh to beat Palace or Palace will do us out of a European place as well as winning something we’ve never won.

 

[trueblue]

(


It‘s probably as clear as your attempt

What it means that this VV isn’t correct



Conference League qualification only goes to 8th place and will only go to 7th if Palace win the FA Cup.

On the 17th May, I will be very much rooting for Citeh to beat Palace or Palace will do us out of a European place as well as winning something we’ve never won

It wasn't 'my attempt'. It's a direct quote from Dale Johnson's article which, in full, lays out every possible outcome at length, even including the ones - like this - which are now hypothetical as Chelsea can no longer finish 8th. The permutations I originally posted were 99.9% likely to be correct at the time but, you know, games happen...

As mentioned before, Johnson's the person many football statisticians turn to for clarification on the most complex permutations, particularly in UEFA competitions. More reliable than the likes of the Premier League website or MOTD. He has frequently been correct in situations where even UEFA's own website articles carry unclear or incorrect information.

Usually this happens because statisticians tend to provide long, extraordinarily detailed and boring explanations which journalists try to put into plainer language, misinterpreting a vital detail in the process.

 

[Stumpy Tim]

(


It‘s probably as clear as your attempt

What it means that this VV isn’t correct



Conference League qualification only goes to 8th place and will only go to 7th if Palace win the FA Cup.

On the 17th May, I will be very much rooting for Citeh to beat Palace or Palace will do us out of a European place as well as winning something we’ve never won.

This is correct. However, if Palace lose, and Chelsea win the Conference League but finish outside the top five, there will be no English team in the Conference League next season. 6th-8th will play in the Europa League. So we could still end up in the Europa League

 

[trueblue]

I think you haven’t understood my post. Which was as clear as mud maybe

I am not questioning that 9th could have got Europa under previous possible permutations but those routes are no longer available.

However, with Chelsea qualifying with a Premier League position, Newcastle above 6 and if Citeh win FA Cup, the most we will get is Conference.

This is correct. However, if Palace lose, and Chelsea win the Conference League but finish outside the top five, there will be no English team in the Conference League next season. 6th-8th will play in the Europa League. So we could still end up in the Europa League

You beat me to it. 8th can still be a Europa League place - though not if Chelsea finish sixth.

It looks like just one set of outcomes offers that possibility. Manchester City and Newcastle finish in the top 6 (should happen), Manchester City win the FA Cup (could happen), Chelsea to win the Conference League (almost certain) and finish SEVENTH. It's ridiculously complicated but I'll put my faith in Dale Johnson who, I imagine, is a man you really wouldn't want to sit next to at a dinner party but is incredibly good at this stuff.

Anyway, once Palace have won the FA Cup we can all forget about it

In case anyone really wants to fry their brain, I'll repeat the link... https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_...-league-teams-qualify-champions-league-europe

 

[casbom]

Yeah let's forget about what the permutations are until after Saturday! However we all know that Palace are going to win it, it feels like it's their fate with the easy run they've had.

 

[JBizzle]

Anyway, once Palace have won the FA Cup we can all forget about it

They are going to win it, aren't they?

 

[barbus_max bhafc]

They are going to win it, aren't they?

No

 

[trueblue]

No

That's the spirit!

 

[Zeberdi]

You beat me to it. 8th can still be a Europa League place - though not if Chelsea finish sixth.

It looks like just one set of outcomes offers that possibility. Manchester City and Newcastle finish in the top 6 (should happen), Manchester City win the FA Cup (could happen), Chelsea to win the Conference League (almost certain) and finish SEVENTH. It's ridiculously complicated but I'll put my faith in Dale Johnson who, I imagine, is a man you really wouldn't want to sit next to at a dinner party but is incredibly good at this stuff.

Anyway, once Palace have won the FA Cup we can all forget about it

In case anyone really wants to fry their brain, I'll repeat the link... https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_...-league-teams-qualify-champions-league-europe

As I said in the post above yours.

Again, earlier I was responding to you say that 9th place gets Conference if Chelsea get sixth

Now the EPS is applied with fifth in the UCL, and as this creates the plus-1 in all scenarios there are now nine teams in Europe. The European places drop down one, but as Chelsea already have a place in the Europa League, the Conference League spot "jumps" over them and goes to ninth.

- it doesn’t The Conference place would be forfeited if Chelsea finish 6th. We would still have to get an 8th place finish for Europe and Citeh would still need to beat Palace in the FA Cup.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Excellent.

That's all crystal clear.

 

[Stumpy Tim]

It's not that complicated now.

If Palace win the Cup, 8th doesn't get Europe.

If City win the Cup, 8th does get Europe. It will be the Conference League, unless Chelsea finish outside the top 5 and win the Conference League (in which case it will be the Europa League).

 

[Redinpeace]

Even though we will benefit from the current rules it’s ridiculous that we’ll have 6 teams in the Champions League and a few more in the Europa and Conference, not be long before everyone gets a prize, I often wonder if this is a play to push the European Super League?

 

[Gabbiano]

Even though we will benefit from the current rules it’s ridiculous that we’ll have 6 teams in the Champions League and a few more in the Europa and Conference, not be long before everyone gets a prize, I often wonder if this is a play to push the European Super League?

Well the reformatting of the Champions League was basically to create a European Super League in everything but name.

 

[Zeberdi]

It's not that complicated now.

If Palace win the Cup, 8th doesn't get Europe.

If City win the Cup, 8th does get Europe. It will be the Conference League, unless Chelsea finish outside the top 5 and win the Conference League (in which case it will be the Europa League).

Not now no.

 

[putthatboarddown]

I'll raise you to 61.

And yes, two more wins are possible but we're going to need them as I can see Brentford finishing on at least 59 with a better goal difference.

Yep I under cooked it, which hopefully means there are more twists to come!
I always thought our result against Brentford would be crucial though so let’s hope they slip up

 

[Dibdab]

If we thought losing to Palace in the PLay Off semis was bad seeing them win a trophy before us AND deny us a European place would provide a decade of horrific bragging rights. I'm tempted to bet on Palace large to soften the blow if it does happen.

 

[kevo]

It's not that complicated now.

If Palace win the Cup, 8th doesn't get Europe.

If City win the Cup, 8th does get Europe. It will be the Conference League, unless Chelsea finish outside the top 5 and win the Conference League (in which case it will be the Europa League).

This is all anyone needs to know.

If Palace win on Saturday (and I have a horrible feeling they will) it's all immaterial for us.

 

[trueblue]

As I said in the post above yours.

Again, earlier I was responding to you say that 9th place gets Conference if Chelsea get sixth



- it doesn’t The Conference place would be forfeited if Chelsea finish 6th. We would still have to get an 8th place finish for Europe and Citeh would still need to beat Palace in the FA Cup.

Honestly mate, go and argue with Dale Johnson. You can put one of the most meticulous statisticians in the business right. Yes, City need to win the FA Cup - we're all taking that as read as outlined in my earlier posts - and it's specified if you bother to read the whole of his article. At the time this was first mentioned (two games ago), it could go to 9th. Now it can't. It's not really that hard to understand.