[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[jcdenton08]

Do you mind if I ask why? I’m hugely reassured that the British voter does at last seem to have started paying attention.

Surely you weren’t hoping for even more of the thin gruel we’ve been served over the past ten years?

The vote has been split. Labour should be trouncing the feckless Tories, but they aren’t. Those Green/Lib Dem gains should be Labour home runs, but they aren’t. Tories are shipping votes, as they will at the GE, but they need to ship them all in one place - Labour.

You can mark my words, it will be a NOC outcome and a potential Lib-Lab mess unless Starmer and Labour win hearts and minds between now and the GE.

This is a troubling outcome for those wanting a fresh, strong, new government at the next GE.

 

[Guinness Boy]

A case in point where Hayling Island East and West stood down in preference for the other.

I believe something similar happened in Steyning with only the Greens opposing the Tories. Or so my Steyning spy said last night

 

[Bodian]

The vote has been split. Labour should be trouncing the feckless Tories, but they aren’t. Those Green/Lib Dem gains should be Labour home runs, but they aren’t. Tories are shipping votes, as they will at the GE, but they need to ship them all in one place - Labour.

You can mark my words, it will be a NOC outcome and a potential Lib-Lab mess unless Starmer and Labour win hearts and minds between now and the GE.

This is a troubling outcome for those wanting a fresh, strong, new government at the next GE.

Personally, that's the sort of outcome I've been hoping would come around for a long while. A decent centre-left coalition/pact could see the Tories out for much of the rest of my life.

 

[Guinness Boy]

The vote has been split. Labour should be trouncing the feckless Tories, but they aren’t. Those Green/Lib Dem gains should be Labour home runs, but they aren’t. Tories are shipping votes, as they will at the GE, but they need to ship them all in one place - Labour.

You can mark my words, it will be a NOC outcome and a potential Lib-Lab mess unless Starmer and Labour win hearts and minds between now and the GE.

This is a troubling outcome for those wanting a fresh, strong, new government at the next GE.

People often vote tactically in local elections and may also vote for good councillors they know or to keep a good local authority.

By the time the GE comes around there won’t be a credible SNP in Scotland. That really should be an open goal for Labour. If the LDs and Greens wipe out the Tories in seats where Labour traditionally does badly, so much the better.

The only person who should be concerned at these results is Sunak

 

[jcdenton08]

Personally, that's the sort of outcome I've been hoping would come around for a long while. A decent centre-left coalition/pact could see the Tories out for much of the rest of my life.

But that isn’t the reality though, is it. Starmer’s Labour is pro-business centre-right Blairism, they will take the moderates and centre-right. Libs will clean up the dissenting left, green and their core voters. Staunch conservatives will be, erm, conservative.

The very real likelihood at the GE based on the results so far are the pro-trade soft right option sharing offices with people who fundamentally disagree with them.

 

[Pevenseagull]

Quite enjoying dipping in and out of Politics Live.

A slow drip of Tory MPs looking glum.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Zahawi's constituency not happy with tax dodgers, it seems.

 

[jcdenton08]

Hugely distressing.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

But that isn’t the reality though, is it. Starmer’s Labour is pro-business centre-right Blairism, they will take the moderates and centre-right. Libs will clean up the dissenting left, green and their core voters. Staunch conservatives will be, erm, conservative.

The very real likelihood at the GE based on the results so far are the pro-trade soft right option sharing offices with people who fundamentally disagree with them.

Coalition governments work very well in the vast majority of western countries. It even worked well from 1940 to 45 when we needed to work together.
A two party system is outdated.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Conservatives lose Maidstone which is now NOC.

From the BBC SE
We're hearing from our reporters at the counts that both the leaders of Folkestone and Canterbury councils have lost their seat.

Conservative leader of Folkestone & Hythe District Council, David Monk, has lost his seat to the Greens. With just two wards still to declare, the Conservatives have only held one seat.

Meanwhile, Canterbury's Tory leader Ben Fitter-Harding has lost to Peter Old from the Lib Dems.

It looks like Kent is revolting.

Lost Ashford to NOC and Medway to Labour too.

 

[Acker79]

It looks like Kent is revolting.

Bit harsh. Every county has its rough areas. I'm sure Kent has some lovely parts, too.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

The vote has been split. Labour should be trouncing the feckless Tories, but they aren’t. Those Green/Lib Dem gains should be Labour home runs, but they aren’t. Tories are shipping votes, as they will at the GE, but they need to ship them all in one place - Labour.

You can mark my words, it will be a NOC outcome and a potential Lib-Lab mess unless Starmer and Labour win hearts and minds between now and the GE.

This is a troubling outcome for those wanting a fresh, strong, new government at the next GE.

There's no reason why a Lab/Lib government should be a mess.
The conservatives have had significant majorities over the last few years, all it did was put the government in hoc to the most extreme elements of the tory coalition.
If we get a Lab/Lib government or pact of any sort, we might finally get a sensible voting reform that stops us being stuck with elective dictatorships that attract under 40% of the vote for years on end.

 

[A1X]

There will be several prominent Tory MPs looking at these results somewhat nervously today. Jonathan Gullis and Jacob Rees-Mogg most notably.

 

[jcdenton08]

There's no reason why a Lab/Lib government should be a mess.
The conservatives have had significant majorities over the last few years, all it did was put the government in hoc to the most extreme elements of the tory coalition.
If we get a Lab/Lib government or pact of any sort, we might finally get a sensible voting reform that stops us being stuck with elective dictatorships that attract under 40% of the vote for years on end.

Alternatively, and most likely, we will get a parliament and cabinet completely at odds with one another and unable to reform anything whatsoever, let alone make the broad changes and policy enactments needed to turn the ship around.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Alternatively, and most likely, we will get a parliament and cabinet completely at odds with one another and unable to reform anything whatsoever, let alone make the broad changes and policy enactments needed to turn the ship around.

What's that actually based on though? It's just the same scare stories that have been put out for decades to put people off alternative systems.
We had this at school.
"There are two options, First Past The Post, which leads to Strong Governments which can get things done, or Proportional Representation, which led to the Nazis".

 

[jcdenton08]

The numbers keep getting worse and worse for Labour. I bet the Libs can’t believe what is happening. Nice to see the Tories get a well deserved shoeing though.

Massive change needed at Labour HQ.

 

[jcdenton08]

What's that actually based on though? It's just the same scare stories that have been put out for decades to put people off alternative systems.
We had this at school.
"There are two options, First Past The Post, which leads to Strong Governments which can get things done, or Proportional Representation, which led to the Nazis".

Well, off the top of my head, there is the last time I voted Lib, which was under Nick Clegg, based on his key campaign promise of freezing university fees. This lie cost me more in literal, actual money lost than any other political party has or likely ever will.

The libs, you may remember, got into bed with Tories and it was such a massive shitshow that it led to the Tories getting a huge majority and staying in power to date.

So no, this is not a good thing. It’s a very bad thing. Well done on Godwin’s Law though, that really took a huge amount of creativity to work into your point, such as it was

Are you suggesting that you want a Lab-Lib government because you actually want the Tories to sweep back in after 4 years?

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Well, off the top of my head, there is the last time I voted Lib, which was under Nick Clegg, based on his key campaign promise of freezing university fees. This lie cost me more in literal, actual money lost than any other political party has or likely ever will.

The libs, you may remember, got into bed with Tories and it was such a massive shitshow than the it led to the Tories getting a huge majority and staying in power to date.

So no, this is not a good thing. It’s a very bad thing. Well done on Godwin’s Law though, that really took a huge amount of creativity to work into your point, such as it was

Are you suggesting that you want a Lab-Lib government because you actually want the Tories to sweep back in after 4 years?

It's not Goodwin's law to cite other people referring to the Nazis.
Also, if we had a proper voting system, the conservatives would never have got that massive majority.
Assuming then that you went to university after me (I entered university in the last year of the old system), you'll have paid less money back on your loan in the meantime than I have, because of the way the repayment rates relate to income (ie, when you graduate on a relatively low salary, you pay less back than somebody on the old system, up to a given amount).
If you're older than me and have decided to pay your children's tuition fees, you're clearly just a bit mental.
I also hope you're never in a position where government policies lead to you losing your job, because that'll very quickly cost you much more money.
Edit: no, from a partisan perspective (and frankly, just not wanting a shit country) my hope is that if we have a government that actually carries out voting reform then the conservatives will never have a majority ever again.

 

[jcdenton08]

It's not Goodwin's law to cite other people referring to the Nazis.
Also, if we had a proper voting system, the conservatives would never have got that massive majority.
Assuming then that you went to university after me (I entered university in the last year of the old system), you'll have paid less money back on your loan in the meantime than I have, because of the way the repayment rates relate to income (ie, when you graduate on a relatively low salary, you pay less back than somebody on the old system, up to a given amount).
If you're older than me and have decided to pay your children's tuition fees, you're clearly just a bit mental.
I also hope you're never in a position where government policies lead to you losing your job, because that'll very quickly cost you much more money.

I answered your question accurately, fairly and, I’m sure you’ll agree, decisively. I wasn’t looking to be called mental, a Nazi or have my income audited. We’ll leave it there. Thank you for doing your best.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

I answered your question accurately, fairly and, I’m sure you’ll agree, decisively. I wasn’t looking to be called mental, a Nazi or have my income audited. We’ll leave it there. Thank you for doing your best.

OK, I'm having a nice day, I'm enjoying this conversation and not aiming to be anywhere near as confrontational about this as I'm probably coming across as, for which I'm genuinely sorry.

I do maintain that recalling my own Soc Ed lessons about different voting systems isn't a case of Godwin's Law.

To be clear, as a card carrying Labour member, I'd like the party to win a majority as much as anybody else. I don't see the idea of a coalition as being a disaster though, not least given the alternative is more of the same government that we've had for the last decade.

Generally the larger party in such deals tends to take votes off the smaller party in the next election. It's only the fact that it's possible for any party to win a majority of seats with about 35% of the vote that lets a minority party (in Britain generally the Conservatives) take advantage of these situations.