[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Machiavelli]

Going to be quite amusing seeing the people who blamed Gordon Brown and the previous Labour Government for the global economic crisis of 2008-2011 now desperately trying to claim the economic crisis of 2022-20xx isn't the fault of Boris Johnson and the current Tory Government.

Every now and again, some still trot out that they're cleaning up the mess Labour left them with.
It's worth noting that the euro growth rates posted on this thread relate largely to the pre-Brexit picture, and that the OECD(?) have predicted the UK as the slowest growth rate in the year/s ahead.

 

[Chicken Run]

Every now and again, some still trot out that they're cleaning up the mess Labour left them with.
It's worth noting that the euro growth rates posted on this thread relate largely to the pre-Brexit picture, and that the OECD(?) have predicted the UK as the slowest growth rate in the year/s ahead.

When Labour storm to power in 2024, I wonder how long folk on here will be trotting out similar [emoji6] Git to be at least till 2034 right….


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[Recidivist]

I don’t believe Johnson can win another election. Therefore he will as that is what the Conservatives prioritise over everything. Power trumps loyalty for them. When I don’t know, but it will happen.

Regrettably I think you’re wrong. Given current electoral boundaries it would take a 12% swing to Labour for them to even scrape a majority (per a recent BBC analysis).

It’s far more likely that the Conservatives would still end up in power but with a much reduced majority.

If BoJo did call a snap election he’d probably win and would be pretty much impregnable for the foreseeable future……

If the Tory MPs are to get rid of him, think they’ll have to do it pretty smartish…..


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[Seagull27]

Regrettably I think you’re wrong. Given current electoral boundaries it would take a 12% swing to Labour for them to even scrape a majority (per a recent BBC analysis).

It’s far more likely that the Conservatives would still end up in power but with a much reduced majority.

If BoJo did call a snap election he’d probably win and would be pretty much impregnable for the foreseeable future……

If the Tory MPs are to get rid of him, think they’ll have to do it pretty smartish…..


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A Labour majority is unlikely, but I think there's a good chance of a hung parliament. Even more so if Labour and Lib Dems choose to capitalise on the anyone-but-Tory sentiment and come to some sort of agreement on where they focus their campaigns

 

[nicko31]

Regrettably I think you’re wrong. Given current electoral boundaries it would take a 12% swing to Labour for them to even scrape a majority (per a recent BBC analysis).

It’s far more likely that the Conservatives would still end up in power but with a much reduced majority.

If BoJo did call a snap election he’d probably win and would be pretty much impregnable for the foreseeable future……

If the Tory MPs are to get rid of him, think they’ll have to do it pretty smartish…..


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I should add the electoral boundaries may change and with the crooks in charge of the commission there will be only be one benefactor

We also have to factor in the voter suppression already brought and will effect 1.9m voters

When Starmer took over they were 21% behind the Tories, now 8% ahead. But still a lot of headwinds...

 

[Dorset Seagull]

A lot will depend on the economic situation leading up to the next election. Any slight upturn will be heralded by the Tories as a turning point regardless of how small it is. With the perceived sunny uplands just around the corner they could muster another victory.

They can wait to get rid of BJ at the last minute and if things are looking iffy they can bin him off and throw shed loads of money at the red wall to ensure victory. Much will also depend on whether Labour can get their act together and have a leader in power who is strong enough to present an acceptable alternative. Not sure Starmer is the man to do that.

Whilst most of us on here clearly see the flaws in the charismatic BJ many people only take in snippets of daily news and perhaps haven’t grasped the seriousness of the direction we are going in. Don’t underestimate the influence that charisma can have on those that don’t see the full truth behind it

 

[Machiavelli]

Some thoughtful analyses on this page, and I'll add that I differ somewhat from [MENTION=38234]Recidivist[/MENTION]: as others have pointed out, it's not a binary between a Con (reduced) majority government and a Labour government. The more likely scenario is a hung parliament and, if that materialises, the likelihood of any other party working with the Tories is extremely unlikely.
The chances of a Labour majority remain extremely unlikely, and have been ever since the SNP surge a decade ago but, even given their in-built advantages, I can't see the Tories getting enough seats to form the next government (even if it is a minority one) -- the public have just had enough of them and, especially, him.

 

[Recidivist]

Some thoughtful analyses on this page, and I'll add that I differ somewhat from [MENTION=38234]Recidivist[/MENTION]: as others have pointed out, it's not a binary between a Con (reduced) majority government and a Labour government. The more likely scenario is a hung parliament and, if that materialises, the likelihood of any other party working with the Tories is extremely unlikely.
The chances of a Labour majority remain extremely unlikely, and have been ever since the SNP surge a decade ago but, even given their in-built advantages, I can't see the Tories getting enough seats to form the next government (even if it is a minority one) -- the public have just had enough of them and, especially, him.

Fair point though I’m still inclined to the view that a hung Parliament is less likely than a slim Tory majority.

It’s easy to get carried away with recent Lib Dem gains but I’m long enough in the tooth to remember similar stellar wins at by-elections not translated into significant gains at a general election.

I also think their tentative grasping of a Brexit (sort of) reversal is likely to be a vote loser in the shortish term.

It’s obvious that many on this thread are both interested in and thoughtful about politics but, regrettably, that’s not really the norm across most of the electorate.

There are still plenty of BoJo apologists who will still vote for him on the basis of him being “different” (even if in all the wrong ways, in my view) and blame a witch hunt by the media (however inaccurate).

My conclusion is that it really is time we had a written constitution and some powers stripped from the PM, which currently assume that any PM is a person of integrity…..

lol lol lol!


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[Bry Nylon]

I can't see the Tories getting enough seats to form the next government (even if it is a minority one) -- the public have just had enough of them and, especially, him.

The bit that Johnson just won't or can't accept, seemingly.

40% of his own MPs don't have confidence in him? No problem, its a decisive victory and a renewed mandate

Huge bye-election defeats, each one worse than the one before? No problem, people are feeling the cost-of-living pressures

His default response to anything and everything is, "What I think the people really want is for me to get on with the job."

No Boris. What the people really want is for you to **** off and then when you get there, **** off some more.

 

[Bodian]

Fair point though I’m still inclined to the view that a hung Parliament is less likely than a slim Tory majority.

It’s easy to get carried away with recent Lib Dem gains but I’m long enough in the tooth to remember similar stellar wins at by-elections not translated into significant gains at a general election.

I also think their tentative grasping of a Brexit (sort of) reversal is likely to be a vote loser in the shortish term.

It’s obvious that many on this thread are both interested in and thoughtful about politics but, regrettably, that’s not really the norm across most of the electorate.

There are still plenty of BoJo apologists who will still vote for him on the basis of him being “different” (even if in all the wrong ways, in my view) and blame a witch hunt by the media (however inaccurate).

My conclusion is that it really is time we had a written constitution and some powers stripped from the PM, which currently assume that any PM is a person of integrity…..

lol lol lol!


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Only about a 6% swing needed for a hung parliament. I think that's quite likely. https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/latest-opinion-polls/

 

[Audax]

I'm inclined to the view that if Boris is still PM at the next GE, the Tories lose. Most likely result will be Labour with the most seats, but short of a majority, but enough Lib Dem seats for a Labour / Lib Dem agreement to muster a majority (whether that is a full coalition or a Con/DUP style confidence and supply agreement to keep the Tories out doesn't particularly matter).

I see that Starmer and Labour are making a move to kill off the Tory "Coalition of Chaos" attack line by categorically ruling out any prospect of cooperating with the SNP. The step that follows that probably needs to be an unofficial policy of allowing the Lib Dems a free run at seats identified as a no-win for Labour. If the Lib Dems put together a strong campaign based on soft-right fiscal policy, strong pro-climate and pro-integrity policies, then I can see them carrying enough seats over the line to allow Labour to ignore the SNP.

The polls continue to favour Labour, including where voting is actually taking place. There was 8 local council by-elections yesterday. Before the voting, they were Con 5, Lab 2, Ind 1. After the voting, it's now Lab 4, Lib Dem 2, Con 2. One of the 2 that Con held, there was an 18pt swing to Labour.



As far as whether he survives to the next GE ... Unless he calls one early, I fully expect he'll be gone before the end of 2022. The rebels are getting more organised, and the Pincher affair is only going to make matters worse for him if (as appears the case currently) Boris is going to resist withdrawing the whip. The 1922 elections will take place, they will then move to change the rules from a 12 month protection period to 6 months (or less), and we'll then see him face another no-confidence vote before the end of the year. One which I fully expect him to lose.

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[Machiavelli]

The bit that Johnson just won't or can't accept, seemingly.

40% of his own MPs don't have confidence in him? No problem, its a decisive victory and a renewed mandate

Huge bye-election defeats, each one worse than the one before? No problem, people are feeling the cost-of-living pressures

His default response to anything and everything is, "What I think the people really want is for me to get on with the job."

No Boris. What the people really want is for you to **** off and then when you get there, **** off some more.

You wish

 

[Dick Swiveller]

You wish

That is why he is so upset at losing. He thought he was through without contesting it.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I'm inclined to the view that if Boris is still PM at the next GE, the Tories lose. Most likely result will be Labour with the most seats, but short of a majority, but enough Lib Dem seats for a Labour / Lib Dem agreement to muster a majority (whether that is a full coalition or a Con/DUP style confidence and supply agreement to keep the Tories out doesn't particularly matter).

I see that Starmer and Labour are making a move to kill off the Tory "Coalition of Chaos" attack line by categorically ruling out any prospect of cooperating with the SNP. The step that follows that probably needs to be an unofficial policy of allowing the Lib Dems a free run at seats identified as a no-win for Labour. If the Lib Dems put together a strong campaign based on soft-right fiscal policy, strong pro-climate and pro-integrity policies, then I can see them carrying enough seats over the line to allow Labour to ignore the SNP.

The polls continue to favour Labour, including where voting is actually taking place. There was 8 local council by-elections yesterday. Before the voting, they were Con 5, Lab 2, Ind 1. After the voting, it's now Lab 4, Lib Dem 2, Con 2. One of the 2 that Con held, there was an 18pt swing to Labour.



As far as whether he survives to the next GE ... Unless he calls one early, I fully expect he'll be gone before the end of 2022. The rebels are getting more organised, and the Pincher affair is only going to make matters worse for him if (as appears the case currently) Boris is going to resist withdrawing the whip. The 1922 elections will take place, they will then move to change the rules from a 12 month protection period to 6 months (or less), and we'll then see him face another no-confidence vote before the end of the year. One which I fully expect him to lose.

[tweet]1542847086823096325[/tweet]

One Tory MP is getting desperate.

[tweet]1542805425904652288[/tweet]

 

[A1X]

As far as whether he survives to the next GE ... Unless he calls one early, I fully expect he'll be gone before the end of 2022. The rebels are getting more organised, and the Pincher affair is only going to make matters worse for him if (as appears the case currently) Boris is going to resist withdrawing the whip. The 1922 elections will take place, they will then move to change the rules from a 12 month protection period to 6 months (or less), and we'll then see him face another no-confidence vote before the end of the year. One which I fully expect him to lose.

Three months would be my guess. That gives the rebels the summer to organise their support (plus hoping a fair few MPs head back to their constituencies for the summer and have it reaffirmed to them what the local populace think about their chosen leader). That puts the next vote in around mid to late September (just before party conference which might also be a danger point for Johnson as people get together to discuss how much they don't trust him).

 

[TomandJerry]

Neil Parish, the former Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton,has said the Conservatives cannot show “double standards” and must remove the whip from former deputy chief whip Chris Pincher.

Parish, who formally resigned in May after admitting he had watched pornography twice on his phone in parliament, suggested that he believes the party whip could be withdrawn from Pincher before the end of Saturday.

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[nicko31]

Neil Parish, the former Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton,has said the Conservatives cannot show “double standards” and must remove the whip from former deputy chief whip Chris Pincher.

Parish, who formally resigned in May after admitting he had watched pornography twice on his phone in parliament, suggested that he believes the party whip could be withdrawn from Pincher before the end of Saturday.

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Red wall seat, used to be Labour till 2010, 20k majority

Could the Tories hold it?

 

[TomandJerry]

Red wall seat, used to be Labour till 2010, 20k majority

Could the Tories hold it?

The most recent by-election turned over a 26k majority I believe for the LD's?

Certainly not undoable

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[Thunder Bolt]

Neil Parish, the former Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton,has said the Conservatives cannot show “double standards” and must remove the whip from former deputy chief whip Chris Pincher.

Parish, who formally resigned in May after admitting he had watched pornography twice on his phone in parliament, suggested that he believes the party whip could be withdrawn from Pincher before the end of Saturday.

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Now removed. He probably wanted revenge because the two women who reported him, went to the whip.

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[TomandJerry]

Chris Pincher MP, the former Tory deputy chief whip who resigned over groping allegations, has been suspended by the Conservative party.

Pincher lost the Conservative whip amid growing calls from Tory MPs to exclude him from the party.

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