[Albion] Best Defence in the Premier League

[chaileyjem]

"Pound for Pound [Albion] have the best defence in the Premier League"
argues The Athletic's Tom Worville . Only conceded 9 shots per 90 minutes last season apparently and the "non penalty XG against" data is looking good . Yes its XG again.

They are "stingy without the ball, comfortably switching from a back three to a back four and tough to break down."

Although Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool have the actual best defences...cos they er, spend the most money.
https://theathletic.com/2813846/2021/09/09/which-premier-league-team-has-the-best-defence/

 

[Sarisbury Seagull]

Tom Worville loves us. We are a stats dream.

 

[Is it PotG?]

I can prove anything by statistics except the truth - George Canning

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I can prove anything by statistics except the truth - George Canning

That's probably incorrect.

 

[bhafc99]

What’s the players’ weight got to do with it?

 

[Ding Dong !]

Just picked this off the Bees forum !!!

"Brighton will come out to keep the ball in their possession as much as they can and try to dominate the midfield and 2nd balls. But i think we are superior in every department and we will win 2-0 if not 3-0, They lost Ben white so their defense isn't really much to talk about either.

 

[Stat Brother]

Just picked this off the Bees forum !!!

"Brighton will come out to keep the ball in their possession as much as they can and try to dominate the midfield and 2nd balls. But i think we are superior in every department and we will win 2-0 if not 3-0, They lost Ben white so their defense isn't really much to talk about either.

Ah bless them, the silly northern monkeys.

 

[Icy Gull]

Just picked this off the Bees forum !!!

"Brighton will come out to keep the ball in their possession as much as they can and try to dominate the midfield and 2nd balls. But i think we are superior in every department and we will win 2-0 if not 3-0, They lost Ben white so their defense isn't really much to talk about either.

Sounds like a football fan who has seen just three games in the PL, all of them involving Brentford. Maybe he didn’t notice Ben White playing for Arsenal in one of them

 

[Sarisbury Seagull]

Just picked this off the Bees forum !!!

"Brighton will come out to keep the ball in their possession as much as they can and try to dominate the midfield and 2nd balls. But i think we are superior in every department and we will win 2-0 if not 3-0, They lost Ben white so their defense isn't really much to talk about either.

This is every promoted side's fans every September. Let's have a look on their forum the week before our game on Boxing Day and I bet they won't be anywhere near as confident.

 

[Stumpy Tim]

We are a must win for any promoted team. To be fair, they normally do win too

 

[GT49er]

Just picked this off the Bees forum !!!

"Brighton will come out to keep the ball in their possession as much as they can and try to dominate the midfield and 2nd balls. But i think we are superior in every department and we will win 2-0 if not 3-0, They lost Ben white so their defense isn't really much to talk about either.

Yes, that numpty has certainly made a fool of himself and given us all a laugh, but TBF he is the exception rather than the norm on the Brentford MBs

 

[Stato]

We are a must win for any promoted team. To be fair, they normally do win too

It seems like it, but its not actually true. I think our dismal record against last year's relegated teams probably slants our memory. Since our promotion to the top division we have played 21 games against newly promoted sides. We have taken 36 from a possible 63 points, approx 1.24 ppg, which doesn't seem great, but isn't terrible for a team in our position either.

Won 6 (Newcastle, Norwich x 2, Leeds x 2 & Watford)
Lost 7 (Huddersfield, Fulham, Cardiff x 2, Sheffield Utd, Aston Villa, WBA) &
Drew 8 (Huddersfield, Fulham x 3, Wolves x 2, Sheffield Utd, WBA)

The record under Potter is W5, D5, L3. 20/39 points, or approx 1.54 ppg. The three losses came against Sheffield United at home, Villa away when we were all over them until Moyes second yellow, and WBA away, missing two penalties and having a perfectly good goal scratched off.

The question of 'must win' is, as always, fairly meaningless. The only newly promoted team to have done the double over us was Cardiff who were still relegated. The two that we did the double over were Norwich who were relegated and Leeds who must challenge Wolves for the title of the most successful first season after promotion of recent years.

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

I can prove anything by statistics except the truth - George Canning

Indeed.

If we had the best defence last season, and still only finished 16th in the table, that doesn't say a whole lot for our midfield or forward line.

 

[Stat Brother]

It seems like it, but its not actually true. I think our dismal record against last year's relegated teams probably slants our memory. Since our promotion to the top division we have played 21 games against newly promoted sides. We have taken 36 from a possible 63 points, approx 1.24 ppg, which doesn't seem great, but isn't terrible for a team in our position either.

Won 6 (Newcastle, Norwich x 2, Leeds x 2 & Watford)
Lost 7 (Huddersfield, Fulham, Cardiff x 2, Sheffield Utd, Aston Villa, WBA) &
Drew 8 (Huddersfield, Fulham x 3, Wolves x 2, Sheffield Utd, WBA)

The record under Potter is W5, D5, L3. 20/39 points, or approx 1.54 ppg. The three losses came against Sheffield United at home, Villa away when we were all over them until Moyes second yellow, and WBA away, missing two penalties and having a perfectly good goal scratched off.

The question of 'must win' is, as always, fairly meaningless. The only newly promoted team to have done the double over us was Cardiff who were still relegated. The two that we did the double over were Norwich who were relegated and Leeds who must challenge Wolves for the title of the most successful first season after promotion of recent years.

The Albion are the team who are either 16th or 17th.
The Albion are the only team that have consistently finished 16th or 17th.

For a 'straight back down certainty' promoted team to not be relegated, they realistically have to finish 16th or 17th, above an 'established' side.


Until such time as our standing in the league changes The Albion is THE must win home game, for all newly promoted sides.

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

The Albion are the team who are either 16th or 17th.
The Albion are the only team that have consistently finished 16th or 17th.

For a 'straight back down certainty' promoted team to not be relegated, they realistically have to finish 16th or 17th, above an 'established' side.


Until such time as our standing in the league changes The Albion is THE must win home game, for all newly promoted sides.

Hard to disagree.

EDIT: Crikey, l've just agreed with Stat Brother!

 

[Stato]

The Albion are the team who are either 16th or 17th.
The Albion are the only team that have consistently finished 16th or 17th.

For a 'straight back down certainty' promoted team to not be relegated, they realistically have to finish 16th or 17th, above an 'established' side.


Until such time as our standing in the league changes The Albion is THE must win home game, for all newly promoted sides.

It may seem so, but the assumption is not supported by previous season's outcomes. Of the eleven newly promoted teams other than us between 2017/18 and 2020/21 five have survived their first season. Less than half of them beat Brighton. Of the six who were relegated four beat us in at least one game. Its a small sample, but the numbers suggest that teams that beat Brighton have a statistically greater chance of being relegated than teams that don't. 60% of those that survived failed to beat Brighton, whereas only 33.33% of those that were relegated failed to beat Brighton.


2017/18 Huddersfield WD Relegated
2017/18 Newcastle DL Survived
2018/19 Fulham WD Relegated
2018/19 Cardiff WW Relegated
2018/19 Wolves DD Survived
2019/20 Sheffield Utd WD Survived
2019/20 Norwich LL Relegated
2019/20 Aston Villa WD Survived
2020/21 Fulham DD Relegated
2020/21 Leeds LL Survived
2020/21 WBA WD Relegated

'Must win' games are virtually always a nonsense. The league is measured by success rate in all of the games. In this case, stats suggest that beating Brighton gives a team a greater probability of being relegated than failing to beat us does. I know that this statement is stupid. I'm just using it to evidence that no game is a 'must win' until a team needs to win all of it's remaining games to survive.

 

[Stato]

Hard to disagree.

Not that hard.

 

[Stat Brother]

It may seem so, but the assumption is not supported by previous season's outcomes. Of the eleven newly promoted teams other than us between 2017/18 and 2020/21 five have survived their first season. Less than half of them beat Brighton. Of the six who were relegated four beat us in at least one game. Its a small sample, but the numbers suggest that teams that beat Brighton have a statistically greater chance of being relegated than teams that don't. 60% of those that survived failed to beat Brighton, whereas only 33.33% of those that were relegated failed to beat Brighton.


2017/18 Huddersfield WD Relegated
2017/18 Newcastle DL Survived
2018/19 Fulham WD Relegated
2018/19 Cardiff WW Relegated
2018/19 Wolves DD Survived
2019/20 Sheffield Utd WD Survived
2019/20 Norwich LL Relegated
2019/20 Aston Villa WD Survived
2020/21 Fulham DD Relegated
2020/21 Leeds LL Survived
2020/21 WBA WD Relegated

'Must win' games are virtually always a nonsense. The league is measured by success rate in all of the games. In this case, stats suggest that beating Brighton gives a team a greater probability of being relegated than failing to beat us does. I know that this statement is stupid. I'm just using it to evidence that no game is a 'must win' until a team needs to win all of it's remaining games to survive.

It doesn't matter how it bears out.
It doesn't matter what the statistically correct answer is.
It doesn't matter that 'must win games', every week, are only an invention of Sky TV.

What matters is the Albion's status in the division.
That status, to the Brentford fans of this world, has only ever been 'nearly relegated', therefore we are the team that needs to be beaten.

 

[B-right-on]

This is every promoted side's fans every September. Let's have a look on their forum the week before our game on Boxing Day and I bet they won't be anywhere near as confident.

Maybe it's my (very dark) blue and white tinted specs, but I thought we were pretty doom and gloom at the start of our PL career.

Nice to see after 4 season how much its changed (for some).

Others however.........

 

[Icy Gull]

We are a must win for any promoted team. To be fair, they normally do win too

That was then, this is now, things are going to change….I hope!