So, I thought I’d look at our attacking stats overall to see if that was the case. This is for a number of reasons. Firstly, it feels like the defence has genuinely improved all season. No one has thrashed us this season (remember the City game last summer?). The introductions of Veltman and Sanchez have seen us become a team who are hard to score against. But the gut feel from all of us is of chance after chance being missed. Is this really down to one man? Or does it run a bit deeper. And how do we really compare?
I know what you’re thinking. “You’re the guy who hates stats”. Well no. I’m the guy, largely, who says you get no prize money for expected goals and expected points. The table is decided by actual points and goal difference and those are decided by actual wins and actual goals. And to get actual goals you need actual shots, actual chances and actual crosses. Can those things tell us anything in terms of our profligate nature and who we might sign and sell in the summer? And what about our rivals?
The one thing about any stats other than points on the board is that you can probably hand pick them to suit. I promise you here that I picked the three teams I’m comparing against for a reason and that I picked them before I knew what their actuals were. However, I know this is not a complete analysis. It just might help to understand where we look in the market. I have chosen to compare us to a successful team, a team very close to us and a relegated side. I used Chelsea first of all, because they often play wingbacks in a 3-4-3, because Giroud and Abraham have been mentioned an NSC and because they have a famously inaccurate striker of their own. I used Sheffield United who also use wingbacks and have had a torrid time scoring, despite having signed Brewster who many on NSC wanted. And Southampton because they were one place above us at the time I took the stats. All the stats are from the Premier League’s own website. Right. Let’s go.
Wingbacks
Wingbacks and fullbacks are part of most Premier League sides attack these days. We use wingbacks in most games, to provide width and an out ball, and pace when Lamptey is fit. This should lead to crosses, assists, big chances and the odd goal. How did ours chip in?
You’ll notice here already that I’ve cheated. Liverpool seem to be the best of the bunch at this. Even with four at the back their high line means their fullbacks play more as wide midfielders or even wingers. I just had to see how a team with such a deliberate tactic, that had a poor season by their own standards, compared. I won’t do this with the other player groups.
So what does this tell us? Internally, you can see that as much as Dan Burn provides an out ball when he plays, he does the least with it. He’s behind our other wide defenders in every metric. He looks rather like a centre back filling in at wingback, which, to be fair, he often is. But in terms of goals scored from that position we compare very well with the top sides and do much better than those below and around us. It’s when it comes to assists and chance creation that Liverpool are simply out of this world. Chelsea, however, are interesting. When James and Chilwell play they can expect chances, assists and accurate crosses but Azpilcueta and Alonso are nowhere near as dangerous going forward. Two of their WBs are better than ours, in terms of attack, but the two more defensive minded players are blunter. Sheffield United’s torrid season is demonstrated admirably by their lack of any product from this position. And are Southampton’s fullbacks as dangerous as people say? It really doesn’t seem so.
Like all of the player groups these can be skewed by players who take free kicks, corners and penalties but as we will see later this can be part of a problem. However, it’s clear that when you just filter for Brighton players an actual proper left wingback to fill in for Solly or possibly push him for a start should be on our shopping list.
Midfield
Here’s where it gets interesting.
I’ve had to pick four from each for the purposes of this exercises and have tried to pick those who have played a similar number of games, and mixed attacking and defensive midfielders where I can. Jorginho’s six goals are all penalties and Ward-Prowse’s free kicks but as I said, this is part of the problem. We do not have a penalty taker who you are certain will score and the same with dead balls around the box.
Just looking at Brighton, one thing stands out. Bissouma is my player of the season. He’s an incredible footballer and will probably be sold for mega bucks. But he’s incredible as a game reader, tackler and passer. When it comes to shooting he’s incredibly wasteful. Shots on target are not the be all and end all because they could be straight at the keeper but you have to be on target to score. And he almost always isn’t. Romeu and Kante both shoot much less but much more accurately. Simply put Biss is letting fly too often.
Gross on the other hand has had a mighty season. Many thought he was done, what with his lack of pace, but he leads the midfield in goals, assists, chance creation and accuracy. He’s still doing exactly what we bought him for. But if there’s one player who stands out on the overall list it’s Mason Mount. The stats agree with what many have seen, that he’s an incredible young player and should be one of the first names on Southgate’s team list in the summer.
The stats also clearly show how little attacking Sheffield United have done. Just two goals from their regular midfielders and lower comparative shot and cross numbers. They obviously show that Chelsea are better but, if we really are aiming for the top, this is what we need to aspire to. They can deploy a number of formations, yet get goals, assists and chances from their midfielders. Is this where we need to get to?
But now look at Southampton. 15 goals from midfield. Every one of their players on the list is more accurate at shooting than ours. Any free kick near the goal is probably going in. Sixteen good chances, 15 assists. It’s very consistent. Maybe this is because they genuinely play four-four-****ing-two but across the board, when it comes to attacking, their midfield beats ours.
Attack
Here we go. I can hear you all saying “we need a striker” and “what has Maupay done”. Well, we’ve just seen that the team one place above us has better midfield attack stats, and that our player of the season is actually incredibly profligate. So does NSC’s Maupay hate hold water?
Maupay leads the scoring. He’s played more than Welbeck but only one game more than Trossard. All of our strikers do comparatively well for big chances created, only behind Werner and Adams, but this may be an issue in itself. Have they spent the season creating a chance for another when a shot would have been preferable? The stats don’t tell you. This would only be a gut hunch.
Werner is an interesting case study. Instinct tells you he’s had a similar season to Maupay, yet he also keeps getting picked in big games. It’s when you look at his assists, chances and accurate shots per game that you understand why. Werner may have scored fewer but he creates all the time. And remember how much better Chelsea did than us at goals from midfield? Not only that but Tuchel has options. Giroud and Abraham have both been mentioned on NSC and you can see why, even if I think they are out of our price league. Their shot accuracy is similar to Werner in terms of on target but they score more, relative to their chances. They also offer something different, both being flavours of target men. When you look at our three most starting attackers what jumps out is how similar they are.
Sheffield United would have been completely stuffed without McGoldrick. Actually they were completely stuffed anyway, except by us. Brewster has had a nightmare season. Would he have been better with us, where he would have had more chances and more attacking minutes? Who knows. Statistically, though, we dodged a bullet if we were actually interested, which I’m not sure we were.
And, finally, Southampton. Defensively, they have been far worse than us this season, conceding way more goals. That they are in and around us can be seen from the performance, not only of 12 goal Ings, who stands out here, but also Adams who was much maligned in his first season. Is this a blueprint? We play a very different formation, yet have deployed two up top on a number of occasions. Perhaps an accurate finisher with Maupay alongside might work after all with Welbz and Zeqiri as backup (I’d loan Connolly in the summer)?
Or if Welbeck can stay fit perhaps he’s the man? His goals per shot on target ratio is very similar to Girouds. However – it has to be said – in terms of pure numbers there is nothing there particularly that sticks Maupay out as a scapegoat. In terms of goals he’s better than Werner, in terms of shot accuracy he’s better than Brewster or Walcott and very similar to his peers.
So, conclusions? Well, draw your own. And feel free to compare to other clubs and players. This is just a snapshot. It certainly isn’t the in depth analysis TB and the team will be using, it’s just a start. But that start tells me that if we want to improve next season, not only do we need that elusive deadly striker but we need to greatly improve both the accuracy and decision making in midfield and sign a proper left wingback.
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