[Albion] Relegation Odds

get that board down! · May 30, 2018

I think it is realistic to see us as being a better team over the whole season next year than we were this year. I personally think that Knocky and Izzy got a lot better towards the end of the season. It is not unreasonable to think that Locadia may be a force next season. We now have Andone and we will also bring in a couple more who may well prove influential. CH and the team also know what it takes to win and that everyone (well not Liverpool or City) are beatable now.

Why would we expect to end up much lower than this season? Counter intuitive. I will be placing a bet.

spence · May 30, 2018

casbom said:
It's not doom and gloom, it's trying to be reasonable with expectations without Blue and White tinted glasses on. Of course I hope I'm wrong and we end up top 10!

Be interesting what your prediction was last season.

spence · May 30, 2018

casbom said:
It's not doom and gloom, it's trying to be reasonable with expectations without Blue and White tinted glasses on. Of course I hope I'm wrong and we end up top 10!

Our team has a years advantage over the 3 promoted teams regardless what they spend. That will be vital

Biscuit Barrel · May 30, 2018

spence said:
Our team has a years advantage over the 3 promoted teams regardless what they spend. That will be vital

It proved not to be vital for Swansea, Stoke and WBA!!!

Triggaaar · May 30, 2018

Simster said:
Aye. My mate is a Wolves fan and he was telling me how they're looking to expand Molineux to 45,000 or something once they're established.

I had to point out that Wolves come out with this bollocks EVERY SINGLE TIME they get to the top league.

But don't they have tons more money this time?

Pavilionaire · May 30, 2018

casbom said:
It's not doom and gloom, it's trying to be reasonable with expectations without Blue and White tinted glasses on. Of course I hope I'm wrong and we end up top 10!

Well Stephens and Propper can't score any less goals, Knocky can only get better, Izquierdo / Ryan / Gross have settled in and we have Andone.

The only minus is that it would be physically impossible for Murray to replicate another season like last season and his goal production will almost certainly decrease, but I'd still expect 2018/19's strikeforce of Andone + Murray + Locadia to outscore 2017/18's Murray + Hemed + Baldock.

Weststander · May 30, 2018

casbom said:
It's not doom and gloom, it's trying to be reasonable with expectations without Blue and White tinted glasses on. Of course I hope I'm wrong and we end up top 10!

Your post was not doom and gloom, but a reasoned explanation as to each clubs prospects. For example, Wolves and Fulham both have atttributes to survive. Plus they can improve too this summer with £100m plus of additional income.

CH would be the first to admit that we are very much part of the (circa 10 clubs) relegation mix 2018/19.

The moment a club of Brighton's size gets cocky, there's a danger of doing a Stoke or Southampton and having a stinker of a season relative to resources and the fans sense of entitlement.

Every draw and win next season will have to be hard fought. For example, Wolves and Fulham will be no pushovers home and away for the Albion. It's the nature of the PL beast.

Simster · May 30, 2018

casbom said:
It's not doom and gloom, it's trying to be reasonable with expectations without Blue and White tinted glasses on. Of course I hope I'm wrong and we end up top 10!

For me, it comes down to the simple fact that West Brom and Stoke were both basket cases and Swansea and Southampton were both absolutely woeful and hadn't fixed the glaring holes in their squads. I just don't think we'll be lucky enough to see four absolutely pony sides like that this time round - I am expecting Wolves to break the bank to ensure they stay up for a start, and both Fulham and Cardiff to recruit sensibly to give themselves a fighting chance.

Stat Brother · May 30, 2018

Simster said:
For me, it comes down to the simple fact that West Brom and Stoke were both basket cases and Swansea and Southampton were both absolutely woeful and hadn't fixed the glaring holes in their squads. I just don't think we'll be lucky enough to see four absolutely pony sides like that this time round - I am expecting Wolves to break the bank to ensure they stay up for a start, and both Fulham and Cardiff to recruit sensibly to give themselves a fighting chance.

In a league containing West Ham, palace, Bournemouth, Watford, Mark Hughes led Southampton, Newcastle, Huddersfield and 3 new teams, I wouldn't underestimate the power of stupidity.

Simster · May 30, 2018

Stat Brother said:
In a league containing West Ham, palace, Bournemouth, Watford, Mark Hughes led Southampton, Newcastle, Huddersfield and 3 new teams, I wouldn't underestimate the power of stupidity.

Stupidity alone will not save us. Everton were a bit stupid, maybe Leicester too - both finished well clear of us.

stewart_weir · May 30, 2018

I'm happy with relegation odds. Its nice to be underestimated whats the problem with you people??

Stat Brother · May 30, 2018

Simster said:
Stupidity alone will not save us. Everton were a bit stupid, maybe Leicester too - both finished well clear of us.

Very true, although it's just hard to believe The Dildos, Mike Ashley, Whomever at Watford, Parish and Not So ..., making it to lunch without setting fire to themselves, let alone run a Premier League team for 9 months without incident.

That's even before the other side of the coin as Bournemouth & Huddersfield show blind loyalty to their one trick ponies.

Fingers crossed the Albion's apparent capacity to learn and remain level headed will see the team through.

Tweeting Seagull · May 30, 2018

I have to say I find some of the odds a bit, well odd.

As an occasional better I find Wolves at 6/1 and Sompey at 9/1 to be relegated very tempting. Whack a tenner on and cash out when it’s all gone tits up at Christmas? Very tempting.

Easy 10 · May 30, 2018

I see Palace have tabled a new deal for their one man team this week, that'll be well north of his current £110k a week. He got badly burned last time he tried a move, so he'll probably sign. Big fish small pond and all that. But if he DOES get tempted away, then their goose will be well and truly cooked.

Watford and Cardiff will be the other casualties IMO.

Pavilionaire · May 30, 2018

Weststander said:
Your post was not doom and gloom, but a reasoned explanation as to each clubs prospects. For example, Wolves and Fulham both have atttributes to survive. Plus they can improve too this summer with £100m plus of additional income.

CH would be the first to admit that we are very much part of the (circa 10 clubs) relegation mix 2018/19.

The moment a club of Brighton's size gets cocky, there's a danger of doing a Stoke or Southampton and having a stinker of a season relative to resources and the fans sense of entitlement.

Every draw and win next season will have to be hard fought. For example, Wolves and Fulham will be no pushovers home and away for the Albion. It's the nature of the PL beast.

It's not about getting cocky. Stoke bought expensive rubbish on high wages that trashed team morale, while Southampton sold too many good players and it caught up with them.

Provided you continue to recruit well and are diligent in the transfer market you should always survive, the 'X' Factor being if the manager somehow loses the players.

Hughton was blessed with great club men in Sidwell, Hemed, Hunemeier, Rosenior and Baldock who didn't whinge but were invariably benched. As we upgrade we start acquiring players used to starting in Europe's top leagues and so the likelihood of players becoming upset increases. If we have more talent them he has to let those players show it.

Tweeting Seagull · May 30, 2018

Easy 10 said:
I see Palace have tabled a new deal for their one man team this week, that'll be well north of his current £110k a week. He got badly burned last time he tried a move, so he'll probably sign. But if he DOES get tempted away, then their goose will be well and truly cooked.

Watford and Cardiff would be the other casualties IMO.

What if he gets injured again? Eggs and baskets spring to mind. They might not be lucky enough to pull themselves out of such a mess left by his abscence next season.

Easy 10 · May 30, 2018

Tweeting Seagull said:
What if he gets injured again? Eggs and baskets spring to mind. They might not be lucky enough to pull themselves out of such a mess left by his abscence next season.

Indeed. There is not another team in the division so utterly and completely reliant on 1 player, and Palace fans know it (just witness the sickly-sweet dribbling, drooling and fawning they do over him every time he tweets something about god being brilliant, or something). Every game he missed last season = zero points. Not only that, but zero goals as well. 6 years in the PL, and they have 1 player.

Tweeting Seagull · May 30, 2018

Easy 10 said:
Indeed. There is not another team in the division so utterly and completely reliant on 1 player, and Palace fans know it (just witness the sickly-sweet dribbling, drooling and fawning they do over him every time he tweets something about god being brilliant, or something). Every game he missed last season = zero points. Not only that, but zero goals as well. 6 years in the PL, and they have 1 player.

Agreed, when you consider the work our recruitmebt team has done in a year compared to the tosh they’ve acquired elsewhere in the team over six it puts them to shame really. Without loan players like Loftus-Cheek too they might not even get away with relying on him anymore anyway.

Creaky · May 30, 2018

Easy 10 said:
Indeed. There is not another team in the division so utterly and completely reliant on 1 player, and Palace fans know it (just witness the sickly-sweet dribbling, drooling and fawning they do over him every time he tweets something about god being brilliant, or something). Every game he missed last season = zero points. Not only that, but zero goals as well. 6 years in the PL, and they have 1 player.

Not sure I like this argument because on that basis Zaha has won 20% more games and scored 30% more goals than our whole team

Kalimantan Gull · May 30, 2018

Simster said:
For me, it comes down to the simple fact that West Brom and Stoke were both basket cases and Swansea and Southampton were both absolutely woeful and hadn't fixed the glaring holes in their squads. I just don't think we'll be lucky enough to see four absolutely pony sides like that this time round - I am expecting Wolves to break the bank to ensure they stay up for a start, and both Fulham and Cardiff to recruit sensibly to give themselves a fighting chance.

There are ALWAYS basket cases. Well run clubs very very rarely get relegated.

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