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This time last season



Rugrat

Rugrat

Well-known member
Mar 13, 2011
10,215
Seaford
CheeseRolls said:
Looking through the run ins of the top four, you really have to fancy Huddersfield over Reading. Fixtures wise Huddersfield have a long run of winnable games where as Reading really will have to do it the hard way. It seems unlikely and they may even miss out on the play offs. If there is only one threat to auto promotion, we need to focus on Newcastle to make sure they are the ones that get caught and not us.
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Hudders and our remaining fixtures are remarkabely similar bith in terms of the teams we have to play and the average position of all teams left to play (ours 'easier' at 13.7 vs their 12.9)

Said this before but looking deeper there are those games where you can't see beyond 3 points and those where you could see a case for zero, but what stands out for me are 4 'middling' aways that we each have to play, Barnsley, Forest, Wolves, QPR (us) and Brentford (them). I think these could well be key and if we can get a similar or better points tally from those we'll be fine

Can't figure Newcastle, they were no better than efficiant against Wolves or Derby but I get a sense that when Gayle returns they could steamroller their way through. But they have by far the trickiest fixtures of all and so I'm not writing them off for the play offs
 




M

Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
16,653
Fiveways
CheeseRolls said:
It is good to see the table laid out as it demonstrates a couple of things;

From here on in we turned a three point deficit on Hull into a 6 point surplus. That nine point shift is the warning, however despite an excellent run that doesn't start for a couple more games yet, we couldn't shift Burnley or Middlesbrough.

Taking the nine points as a working threshold, at this point we can right off Leeds as a threat, 10 points a game in hand plus superior GD, rules them out for now. Our visit to Elland Road should confirm this one way or another.

Looking through the run ins of the top four, you really have to fancy Huddersfield over Reading. Fixtures wise Huddersfield have a long run of winnable games where as Reading really will have to do it the hard way. It seems unlikely and they may even miss out on the play offs. If there is only one threat to auto promotion, we need to focus on Newcastle to make sure they are the ones that get caught and not us.

Outside the play-offs Norwich appear the emerging threat and the team to avoid. Our April fixture there looks trickier than the trip to Villa right now.
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Thanks for your contributions to this thread. One person, at least, is reading it, and I'm pretty much with your assessment.
 


GoldWithFalmer

GoldWithFalmer

Seaweed! Seaweed!
Apr 24, 2011
12,687
SouthCoast
Huddersfield's Fa Cup exploits could be a factor in the unlikely,yet at the same time, possible event that they knock City out.
 




GoldWithFalmer

GoldWithFalmer

Seaweed! Seaweed!
Apr 24, 2011
12,687
SouthCoast




CheeseRolls

CheeseRolls

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 27, 2009
5,952
Shoreham Beach
Rugrat said:
Hudders and our remaining fixtures are remarkabely similar bith in terms of the teams we have to play and the average position of all teams left to play (ours 'easier' at 13.7 vs their 12.9)

Said this before but looking deeper there are those games where you can't see beyond 3 points and those where you could see a case for zero, but what stands out for me are 4 'middling' aways that we each have to play, Barnsley, Forest, Wolves, QPR (us) and Brentford (them). I think these could well be key and if we can get a similar or better points tally from those we'll be fine

Can't figure Newcastle, they were no better than efficiant against Wolves or Derby but I get a sense that when Gayle returns they could steamroller their way through. But they have by far the trickiest fixtures of all and so I'm not writing them off for the play offs
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Interesting - One of the points I keep coming back to on this thread, is trying to eliminate bias. it just shows how difficult it can be, having looked through the fixtures, I just felt that our games were tougher than Huddersfield's. Your numbers tell a different story.

This one taken from https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/7/England-Championship suggests our home form should be good enough to see us through.

champ home form-12-2.PNG
 










GoldWithFalmer

GoldWithFalmer

Seaweed! Seaweed!
Apr 24, 2011
12,687
SouthCoast
saafend_seagull said:
Best result would be a draw so they pick up an extra game.
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deffo-they might suffer (although not ultimately) like Hull did last season,with fading towards the end,every little helps in our quest,though at the end of the day it remains very much in our own hands and we currently have as good,if not best,chance we ever have of obtaining our goal of top flight footie for next season..
 


Peter Grummit

Peter Grummit

Well-known member
Oct 13, 2004
6,769
Lewes
Jonathan Hogg, their influential holding midfielder, picked up a groin injury and was subbed after 20 minutes yesterday. He will be tough to replace.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
 




Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,870
Worthing
Peter Grummit said:
Jonathan Hogg, their influential holding midfielder, picked up a groin injury and was subbed after 20 minutes yesterday. He will be tough to replace.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
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They seemed to do ok without him... we need Mooy to pick up an injury
 


S

saafend_seagull

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
13,891
BN1
Peter Grummit said:
Jonathan Hogg, their influential holding midfielder, picked up a groin injury and was subbed after 20 minutes yesterday. He will be tough to replace.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
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Nowhere near as influential as brown, kachunga, or mooy. Those 3 are quality players and match anything we have.
 


Hugo Rune

Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
21,621
Brighton
Having looked at 'Udders fixtures, I only counted 4(four) 3 point bankers (including this Tuesday) where as we have 7 (seven). They have a lot of tricky fixtures ahead. They beat QPR with a lot of luck - I'm not sure how long they can keep up their impressive points scoring.
 




K

KingKev

Well-known member
Jun 16, 2011
867
Hove (actually)
At half-way I said 12 wins and don't lose more than 6, that should see us home on 94 points. Brentford was a draw where I had us ' needing' to win and Preston I had us down for a point; on the other hand I had us losing at Fulham and drawing with Massive, so despite the feeling that we've wobbled so far in 2017 I still have us as being 2 points ahead of the target at this stage.
Ipswich is a must-win in my model and I have Barnsley and Reading down as draws; so any more than 5 points from the next 3 would be a bonus and an extra margin of safety vs my target, regardless of what others do.
On a direct comparison of fixtures played this term so far vs last we are 3 points to the good, which is encouraging. A win on Tuesday (and I am expecting it to be tough work and no shoo-in) would widen the gap to 6....so theoretically still on course for mid-90's...so why am I so nervous?
 




Nixonator

Nixonator

Well-known member
Feb 8, 2016
6,733
Shoreham Beach
KingKev said:
At half-way I said 12 wins and don't lose more than 6, that should see us home on 94 points. Brentford was a draw where I had us ' needing' to win and Preston I had us down for a point; on the other hand I had us losing at Fulham and drawing with Massive, so despite the feeling that we've wobbled so far in 2017 I still have us as being 2 points ahead of the target at this stage.
Ipswich is a must-win in my model and I have Barnsley and Reading down as draws; so any more than 5 points from the next 3 would be a bonus and an extra margin of safety vs my target, regardless of what others do.
On a direct comparison of fixtures played this term so far vs last we are 3 points to the good, which is encouraging. A win on Tuesday (and I am expecting it to be tough work and no shoo-in) would widen the gap to 6....so theoretically still on course for mid-90's...so why am I so nervous?
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You're nervous because they'll always be a form team fairly close behind us, and will be that way until the end. If a few of the results you've predicted go wayward, like two less wins because we couldn't hold on and/or couldn't break through then we could potentially be usurped if someone behind us (looking like Hudds at the moment) go on a Burnley/Brighton like run from last season.

Hudds are in the strongest position at the moment and they have the form. They have also beaten us comfortably, though i'm not sure that's anything to worry about. I don't know about anyone else but as soon as I got to the ground and checked our lineup I expected nothing, having been optimistic about a point to start with.
 


S

Sussex Nomad

Well-known member
Aug 26, 2010
18,185
EP
Interesting to see we are only a few points from this time last season, game more played yes, but we steamrollered the next few, and to see Reading, Leeds and Huddersfield together at the wrong end of the table.

13-02-2016

table-13-02-2016.png

13-02-2017

Correct table below.

Edit: Just realised the statto.com 13-02-2017 table is wrong!
 

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S

Sussex Nomad

Well-known member
Aug 26, 2010
18,185
EP
I tried to delete the incorrect table, it just comes back. Weird software.
 


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