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[Politics] Brexit

If there was a second Brexit referendum how would you vote?


  • Total voters
    1,081


JC Footy Genius

Bringer of TRUTH
Jun 9, 2015
10,568
I love this sort of "evidence" from Leavers. The graph is historical - it shows the situation WHILST WE ARE IN THE EU - the key issue is what happens to our GDP once we've left. The picture will look pretty awful.

You realise that you've just posted a graph showing how well we were doing right up and till we voted to leave the EU? Brilliant.

A graph showing how poorly the Eurozone has done thanks to the self-inflicted crisis that is still unresolved? We are still growing at a rate Project Fear merchants would never have imagined but yes, well spotted we haven't left yet.
 


D

Deleted member 22389

Guest
You're right. Poor Pastafarian has been a bit quiet lately, as has Cunning Fergus. Maybe you're talking about that Maldini chap though. Wasn't that his name? Didn't he decide to graciously step down last year?

Nope you still have the wrong person. I just don't think people realise how rude they come across to leavers sometimes. It's why I hardly post on this thread anymore, It's just not worth the energy anymore. Soon you remainers will have nobody to argue with anymore.
 
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Trufflehound

Re-enfranchised
Aug 5, 2003
14,104
The democratic and free EU
make of it what you will but clearly there was stronger growth after the referendum in Q3 and Q4 2017, just for clarification, brilliant.

We are still midway through Q3 2017, and Q4 2017 hasn't happened yet.

...just for clarification, brilliant.
 


Buzzer

Languidly Clinical
Oct 1, 2006
26,121
You're right. Poor Pastafarian has been a bit quiet lately, as has Cunning Fergus. Maybe you're talking about that Maldini chap though. Wasn't that his name? Didn't he decide to graciously step down last year?

If you feel you are being bullied then speak up and make a complaint to the Mods. Have you made any complaints? Do you feel you are being unfairly picked on? If not, then frankly, you can take your whataboutery and shove it where the sun doesn't shine.

The chap I'm talking about did complain. I also made numerous complaints about how he was being bullied and trolled across NSC. He's now left as a result so well done to those concerned if that was the intention.
 


Mental Lental

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
2,271
Shiki-shi, Saitama

It would greatly help your case if you actually provided the correct link for the paper that the article was based on. It wasn't article 235 as you posted but actually article 381.....

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/381

I wasn't surprised you chose this one...It's usually either this one or the one that suggests that there's evidence that immigration has a detrimental effect on the lowest wage earners. If I were you I would have gone with the latter as there are at least other sources outside of migrantwatch uk (a proven right wing leaning group) that also support that one. But ok you chose this one so let's have a look while I hope to teach you something about processing Cognitive Dissonance.........

The research claims to have taken a model from Dustmann and Frattini (2014), which showed that there has been an overall net positive fiscal effect with regards to migrants since the year 2000. However, the Migrationwatch research mentions that there was a downward trend in positive fiscal contribution in the latter years of Dustmann and Frattini's study and thus they claim to have extended the methods used to ascertain the fiscal contribution of immigrants and extended it for the year 2014/15 and found the numbers have dropped further and extrapolated those figures that were being waved around by the pro-Brexit press at the time.

Ok now the first lesson in working through CD is don't just dismiss it out of hand because you don't like it. Most Brexiters display a spectacular inability to get past this first stage. So the next stage, once you accept that you are facing evidence that disagrees with your point of view, is to try and come to terms with it, by either changing your mind to some degree, or at least amalgamating the presented evidence with what you know from other sources. It's with this in mind that I'm going to make a few observations about the migrationwatch paper but let it be known right here that I'm gonna actually accept it's base conclusion that the downward trend in the fiscal contribution of immigrants continued and even worsened in 2014/2015. So well done there. Claps for you. :clap2:

Now for a few caveats...Let's look at some of the numbers provided in that article.....

immi2.png

The first quite staggering figure is the detrimental fiscal effect that UK natives have. A whopping deficit of nearly a nearly 88 billion pounds. So according to this model, which calculates revenue gained through taxation vs government expenditure on "the broad categories of old-age benefits, working-age benefits, health and education", if we shut off immigration right now we'll still be losing 88 billion a year. So why is the number for natives so high? Well it's obvious if you think about it. It's the pensions. So wow. Pensions and other services caused a deficit of 88 billion in 2014/2015? That's some figure. Obviously we must be getting money from other sources than taxation because that figure is obviously unsustainable year on year. So what about immigration's effects on sources of revenue outside of taxation? Not included in this study, which is a shame.

Now let's look at the fiscal effects of migrants. The next obvious point to be made is that non-EU migrants are far more of a fiscal strain than EU migrants. In fact, when you look at the numbers you can see that the only demographic in the whole country that is putting in more than it's getting out is recent migrants from the EU 15. So one conclusion that can be made from this "pro-Brexit" piece of research is that we're chucking out the only group of people that based on this model are putting in more than they're getting out. So well done there.

Other points can be made regarding the model used. According to the paper, it only measures the effect of 1st generation immigrants and their families. By it's own admission it even says "this paper counts as second-generation immigrants only those under the age of 16." (Section 1.1.1) So it's factoring the costs of these immigrant family's strain on the education and other sectors, and then conveniently forgetting about them just as they're about to reach the age at which they make a positive fiscal contribution. And therein lies the problem with the small amount of research that the pro-Brexit press bandy about that is supposed to prove that EU immigrants are a strain on the economy. They don't take into account the positive contributions of the 2nd and 3rd generation children of migrants. They look at what are the IMMEDIATE negative effects of immigration and disregard the long term positive ones. Remember that this paper only provides figures for the year 2014/2015. And remember that it's only one paper and that there are plenty of other sources outside the right leaning migrantwatch UK company than can show the positive effects of immigration. . Now note that I'm not claiming that the paper is wrong (as is the usual knee jerk reaction of most Brexiters). Remember I conceded you had a point with this source and gave you clap.

Now what you have to do when the next remainer posts up a particularly robust piece of evidence that has links to references from distinguished professors in economics is attempt to process it in the same way that I have demonstrated with this article. THEN you might be able to shed the mantle of the "stupid Brexiter", at least for yourself.

I'm not sure we'll have as much luck with the others though to be honest.
 
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BigGully

Well-known member
Sep 8, 2006
7,139
We are still midway through Q3 2017, and Q4 2017 hasn't happened yet.

...just for clarification, brilliant.

The figures posted were accurate but of course I meant Q3 and Q4 in 2016, which are the two consecutive quarters after the referendum and in response to Miceyjh that we were only doing 'alright' up until the referendum which was untrue.
 
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JC Footy Genius

Bringer of TRUTH
Jun 9, 2015
10,568
I respect your point about no mainstream party addressing the apparent concerns about immigration levels but surely it is the case that all us millions of voters have always had specific concerns about different things - I'm furious about live animal exports for example - but understand that no one political party is likely to deal with them all. We chose the party that best deals with the concerns on our personal lists, weighting those concerns according to how important they are to us as individuals. That choice, like life itself, is a compromise. If immigration levels are the most important matter in most voters' lives then an anti-immigration party will win - ridiculous voting system or not.

Putting a single subject in front of people takes no account of how relatively important that subject is to the individual - which is why some people voted for Leave in the referendum and for a party against Leave in an election. Immigration is important to them, but not overwhelmingly so.

I've rabbited on too much already so on the sovereignty issue I'd simply say that in an interdependent world no country is fully sovereign. Our sharing of sovereignty with other EU nations is clear and above board and generally conducted via a respected legal system - I'm not sure that the compromises we will have to make with any future trading partners will be as transparent. I know you disagree.

I would be interested to know if you think there are any circumstances where a referendum is appropriate. For instance the Scottish Referendum as similar arguments hold.

If there was a list or even a mention of the powers we would be surrendering/pooling after every treaty is signed in each manifesto I would agree it is clear and above board.

You're right. Poor Pastafarian has been a bit quiet lately, as has Cunning Fergus. Maybe you're talking about that Maldini chap though. Wasn't that his name? Didn't he decide to graciously step down last year?

Not Maldini and Cunning has been banned from the thread. I would have thought you would have been a bit more sympathetic as you continually remind us of all the unpleasantness aimed at you.
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
59,198
The Fatherland
You're right. Poor Pastafarian has been a bit quiet lately, as has Cunning Fergus. Maybe you're talking about that Maldini chap though. Wasn't that his name? Didn't he decide to graciously step down last year?

[MENTION=12825]cunning fergus[/MENTION] has been banned from this thread for abuse, particularly a post mid-night tirade.
 




Trufflehound

Re-enfranchised
Aug 5, 2003
14,104
The democratic and free EU
The figures posted were accurate but of course I meant Q3 and Q4 in 2016, which are the two consecutive quarters after the referendum and in response to Miceyjh that we were only doing 'alright' up until the referendum which was untrue.

Nicely edited your pointless insult out of that reply I see. :thumbsup:



Edited: for the record, I don't think quoting economic figures at this time provides any evidence whatsoever about the impact of Brexit, either positively or negatively. We're still in for another almost two years at least, and negotiations (shamefully) have barely begun. Let's start comparing figures once we're actually out shall we?
 
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Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
59,198
The Fatherland
You're right. Poor Pastafarian has been a bit quiet lately, as has Cunning Fergus. Maybe you're talking about that Maldini chap though. Wasn't that his name? Didn't he decide to graciously step down last year?

It can't be [MENTION=26105]Soulman[/MENTION] either as he was more than happy to dish out abuse.
 


Buzzer

Languidly Clinical
Oct 1, 2006
26,121
[MENTION=12825]cunning fergus[/MENTION] has been banned from this thread for abuse, particularly a post mid-night tirade.
Some might say it's proof of double standards that one side gets people banned but despite repeated accusations of bullying the other side are allowed to carry on their own sweet way until the person is hounded off NSC.
 






Buzzer

Languidly Clinical
Oct 1, 2006
26,121
It can't be [MENTION=26105]Soulman[/MENTION] either as he was more than happy to dish out abuse.
You know full well it was Soulman and he only ever got abusive at the end after he was constantly bullied and trolled.

Compare his posts early in this thread to the ones at the end where exasperation got the better of him after the trolling.
 


Garry Nelson's teacher

Well-known member
May 11, 2015
5,257
Bloody Worthing!
Not being pious but it seems to me that the thread has de-generated somewhat to a new low of abuse. I know that folk on either side are passionate and I recognise that thread's title does rather invite a certain level of 'edge'. I appreciate we are not the Oxford University Debating Society but the way in which 'debate' is conducted here means there is no room at all for any concessions. So - cards on table - I'm as firm a Remainer as most and from where I stand events post-Referendum have served only to re-inforce this view. However, I admit that 'Project Fear' (how I dislike this term!) was wrong about the short-term consequences of the vote and that this was counter-productive.
Are there any Brexiteers out there who would concede that they are concerned about any of the longer term impacts of leaving the EU particularly via a hard Brexit i.e. things are panning out in a way that you didn't expect and that concern you?
 




Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,110
Surrey
The figures posted were accurate but of course I meant Q3 and Q4 in 2016, which are the two consecutive quarters after the referendum and in response to Miceyjh that we were only doing 'alright' up until the referendum which was untrue.

I don't really see the point of looking at figures in the first 6 months post referendum. In my view, lost EU business will be more of a constant drip. We've spent 50 years building an economy that has been able to move freely across EU nations without attracting tariffs - for example, car components moving back and forth across the channel until the final product is completed and ready to be sold. Now of course, that will no longer be possible without attracting those tariffs.

Hopefully, car companies and other large manufacturers of complex goods won't immediately shut down entire plants because that wouldn't be cost effective, but when those plants come to their end of life, who on earth would build a new plant in the UK with a view to selling across Europe?

The GDP of France in 2016 was 2.465 trillion USD, UK in 2016 was 2.619 trillion USD. I'll be amazed if France isn't far wealthier than us in 10 years time. Obviously clowns like Ian Duncan-Smith and David Davies will wash their hands of any responsibility if that happens.
 


JC Footy Genius

Bringer of TRUTH
Jun 9, 2015
10,568
It would greatly help your case if you actually provided the correct link for the paper that the article was based on. It wasn't article 235 as you posted but actually article 381.....

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/381

I wasn't surprised you chose this one...It's usually either this one or the one that suggests that there's evidence that immigration has a detrimental effect on the lowest wage earners. If I were you I would have gone with the latter as there are at least other sources outside of migrantwatch uk (a proven right wing leaning group) that also support that one. But ok you chose this one so let's have a look while I hope to teach you something about processing Cognitive Dissonance.........

The research claims to have taken a model from Dustmann and Frattini (2014), which showed that there has been an overall net positive fiscal effect with regards to migrants since the year 2000. However, the Migrationwatch research mentions that there was a downward trend in positive fiscal contribution in the latter years of Dustmann and Frattini's study and thus they claim to have extended the methods used to ascertain the fiscal contribution of immigrants and extended it for the year 2014/15 and found the numbers have dropped further and extrapolated those figures that were being waved around by the pro-Brexit press at the time.

Ok now the first lesson in working through CD is don't just dismiss it out of hand because you don't like it. Most Brexiters display a spectacular inability to get past this first stage. So the next stage, once you accept that you are facing evidence that disagrees with your point of view, is to try and come to terms with it, by either changing your mind to some degree, or at least amalgamating the presented evidence with what you know from other sources. It's with this in mind that I'm going to make a few observations about the migrationwatch paper but let it be known right here that I'm gonna actually accept it's base conclusion that the downward trend in the fiscal contribution of immigrants continued and even worsened in 2014/2015. So well done there. Claps for you. :clap2:

Now for a few caveats...Let's look at some of the numbers provided in that article.....

View attachment 88487

The first quite staggering figure is the detrimental fiscal effect that UK natives have. A whopping deficit of nearly a nearly 88 billion pounds. So according to this model, which calculates revenue gained through taxation vs government expenditure on "the broad categories of old-age benefits, working-age benefits, health and education", if we shut off immigration right now we'll still be losing 88 billion a year. So why is the number for natives so high? Well it's obvious if you think about it. It's the pensions. So wow. Pensions and other services caused a deficit of 88 billion in 2014/2015? That's some figure. Obviously we must be getting money from other sources than taxation because that figure is obviously unsustainable year on year. So what about immigration's effects on sources of revenue outside of taxation? Not included in this study, which is a shame.

Now let's look at the fiscal effects of migrants. The next obvious point to be made is that non-EU migrants are far more of a fiscal strain than EU migrants. In fact, when you look at the numbers you can see that the only demographic in the whole country that is putting in more than it's getting out is recent migrants from the EU 15. So one conclusion that can be made from this "pro-Brexit" piece of research is that we're chucking out the only group of people that based on this model are putting in more than they're getting out. So well done there.

Other points can be made regarding the model used. According to the paper, it only measures the effect of 1st generation immigrants and their families. By it's own admission it even says "this paper counts as second-generation immigrants only those under the age of 16." (Section 1.1.1) So it's factoring the costs of these immigrant family's strain on the education and other sectors, and then conveniently forgetting about them just as they're about to reach the age at which they make a positive fiscal contribution. And therein lies the problem with the small amount of research that the pro-Brexit press bandy about that is supposed to prove that EU immigrants are a strain on the economy. They don't take into account the positive contributions of the 2nd and 3rd generation children of migrants. They look at what are the IMMEDIATE negative effects of immigration and disregard the long term positive ones. Remember that this paper only provides figures for the year 2014/2015. And remember that it's only one paper and that there are plenty of other sources outside the right leaning migrantwatch UK company than can show the positive effects of immigration. . Now note that I'm not claiming that the paper is wrong (as is the usual knee jerk reaction of most Brexiters). Remember I conceded you had a point with this source and gave you clap.

Now what you have to do when the next remainer posts up a particularly robust piece of evidence that has links to references from distinguished professors in economics is attempt to process it in the same way that I have demonstrated with this article. THEN you might be able to shed the mantle of the "stupid Brexiter", at least for yourself.

I'm not sure we'll have as much luck with the others though to be honest.

Thanks for the clap and resisting the urge to reference windows or excrement. If you could dial down the condescening tone you would be a welcome addition to the thread.

If only remainers did post particuarly robust pieces of evidence! Read back through the thread. It's normally opinion pieces or cherry picking a snap shot of negative data and presenting it as hugely significant. The point being no one on this thread goes into the level of analysis you seem to consider acceptable. By your measure of stupidity all are stupid on this thread including 99% of voters.

I did promise you a Remain example

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ould-spawn-legal-morass-and-economic-disaster - http://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/cost-of-no-deal/
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
59,198
The Fatherland
You know full well it was Soulman and he only ever got abusive at the end after he was constantly bullied and trolled.

Compare his posts early in this thread to the ones at the end where exasperation got the better of him after the trolling.

This surprises me, and how would I know "full well"? Post referendum he was always very quick to gloat and goad. And he was also abusive at times. If he didn't like the reactions and responses he received then he's probably better off out of this thread.

And for the record I despise bullying. But equally you have to expect a reaction if you act in a particular way. I do not know who these alleged bullies and trolls you're alluding to are but I am comfortable with my responses to him.
 
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Lincoln Imp

Well-known member
Feb 2, 2009
5,964
If you feel you are being bullied then speak up and make a complaint to the Mods. Have you made any complaints? Do you feel you are being unfairly picked on? If not, then frankly, you can take your whataboutery and shove it where the sun doesn't shine.

The chap I'm talking about did complain. I also made numerous complaints about how he was being bullied and trolled across NSC. He's now left as a result so well done to those concerned if that was the intention.

What on earth are you talking about? I don't feel I'm being bullied. I haven't made any complaints. I don't feel I am being unfairly picked on. And I have never set out to bully or troll, even in reaction to people trying to be offensive. As some people, perhaps including those I named, clearly have been.
 




daveinprague

New member
Oct 1, 2009
12,572
Prague, Czech Republic
If somebody has left NSC over 'abuse' then I think it must have been NSC wide, or the user is a bit oversensitive. Remove yourself from a thread, fair enough. From NSC.. a bit daft, and I doubt it is the case tbh.
 


Lincoln Imp

Well-known member
Feb 2, 2009
5,964
Nope you still have the wrong person. I just don't think people realise how rude they come across to leavers sometimes. It's why I hardly post on this thread anymore, It's just not worth the energy anymore. Soon you remainers will have nobody to argue with anymore.

Oh Lord. As a regular reader of this thread I think I know who might have been bullied. If I have the right person I felt a little sorry for him although he didn't half lead with his chin, dismissing anyone who disagreed with him and revealing his support for what most people think are slightly dodgy causes. The people I referred to are individuals who dish it out with the best of them, arguably more strongly than anyone else, and I mentioned them to lay the lie that Remainers are horrid and Leavers are lovely. Irony?

Yours sincerely, Moronic, bigoted, hypocritical, blood-stained liar (apparently)
 



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