General Election 2017

pb21 · May 31, 2017

Soulman said:
The only one i did not answer was
"How much more affordable will property be in five years time with a Tory government? "
How would i know the answer, what league will the Albion be in in five years time?

Again,
"Now you answer a question, ........how would you keep up housing and infrastructure with immigration larger than Brighton and Hove put TOGETHER ie 330,000 + A YEAR as was?

You really haven't answered the questions at all! I have been asking 'how much' I have seen no answers to 'how much'?

I know you said you don't know how these things work but you must have an idea? I Have given you some example answers below, maybe these will help you?

Immigration has affected property prices by prices changing by x% over the past 20 years. Everything else that can affect property prices has affected property prices by prices changing by y% over the past 20 years.

Reducing net immigration to 100,000 will make a difference of z% to property prices.

After five years of Tory government the average property price for first time buyers will have reduced from its current value of ~6 times house price/earnings ratio in the South East to xyz times house price/earnings ratio.

I will answer your question when you answer mine.

Bozza · May 31, 2017

Westdene Seagull said:
Now what is a 'big' garden ? Mine is 120ft by 25ft - big by modern standards but I brought in Hangleton because property is cheaper so I'm not cash rich so why should I pay high rates/council tax/land tax because my cheaper home happened to come with a big garden .... especially as it's a bungalow which often come with more land.

Lot's of if's but's and maybe's and I've not seen any detail on then policy .... which is strange given the usual suspects complaints about the Tory policies having no detail.

The rental value of the land is the core component of LTV. So, whilst you would almost certainly pay more than a neighbour with a smaller plot, it's likely that you'd pay less than a smaller central Brighton property as the rental value of the land in central Brighton will be considerably higher.

Anyone concerned can simply buy a plot of land in the middle of nowhere, which will have next to no rental value. You'll probably have to live in a tent though. Swings and roundabouts.

Bold Seagull · May 31, 2017

Soulman said:
"how can you vote Tory". Do you not read my posts?, even today i have stated i have NEVER voted Tory.........repeat I have NEVER voted Tory.......

You said you were voting Tory in this election in one of your previous posts? :shrug:

beorhthelm · May 31, 2017

hans kraay fan club said:
Most of what you've quoted from the Mail (amazingly) is tosh though. 55% of value? In some cases, many cases in fact, the land PLUS PERMISSION is close to 100% of the value. Somewhere like a bungalow in Hangleton, where you might fit two properties for example.

where upon you hit the big obstacle to LVT on residential land - planning permission wont be granted. so people would end up with substantial bills for LVT, unable to actually realise the value of the land. the left like the idea because they see it as a way to punish/tax the large landowner and those with expensive homes in desirable locations. the right like it because on paper its a fair tax and promotes efficient land usage. problem is in practice, the large landowner can raise rents, the expensive home owner can afford higher tax too, while the efficient use of land is limited by what we'll allow to be built and where.

Bold Seagull · May 31, 2017

Soulman said:
Out of the two i believe this country will be better run by the Tories, quite frankly Labour are a liability. This is my opinion

Well here you seemed to suggest at least that is where you are voting - apologies if I have read too much into this particular post then...

wellquickwoody · May 31, 2017

Wrong-Direction said:
Great performance by JC on the One show last night

Sent from my SM-A310F using Tapatalk

Performance is about correct. He is doing a very good job at not appearing rattled when under pressure, let's it slip at times like yesterday morning when asked to cost the universal childcare though. A bit like a curmudgeonly old uncle, warm and fuzzy, offering home made jam from his allotment efforts and trying to offer everything to everyone, an occasional grumble or snap, but mostly a likeable, doddery old fool who happened to get grade 'E's before leaving school. Whether that is good Prime Minister material is open to debate by some, not by me as a I like the people who run the country to be at least numerically literate, and certainly not a TRAITOR.

Soulman · May 31, 2017

pb21 said:
You really haven't answered the questions at all! I have been asking 'how much' I have seen no answers to 'how much'?

I know you said you don't know how these things work but you must have an idea? I Have given you some example answers below, maybe these will help you?

Immigration has affected property prices by prices changing by x% over the past 20 years. Everything else that can affect property prices has affected property prices by prices changing by y% over the past 20 years.

Reducing net immigration to 100,000 will make a difference of z% to property prices.

After five years of Tory government the average property price for first time buyers will have reduced from its current value of ~6 times house price/earnings ratio in the South East to xyz times house price/earnings ratio.

I will answer your question when you answer mine.

Seriously, no one knows the answers to your questions, so i might as well do what you have done, ie xyz. Whatever figures i plucked out of the sky, you could not say was right or wrong, just opinions eh.
My question had the figures, try an answer based on ACTUAL figures, not looking for an answer based on the future (unknown).

.."how would you keep up housing and infrastructure with immigration larger than Brighton and Hove put TOGETHER ie 330,000 + A YEAR as was?"......Well?

Guinness Boy · May 31, 2017

Westdene Seagull said:
Lot's of if's but's and maybe's and I've not seen any detail on then policy .... which is strange given the usual suspects complaints about the Tory policies having no detail.

That's because it's a proposal for a discussion - nothing more. The detail would be in a white paper.

That's not a good thing by the way. The ambiguity gives the Tory Press a stick to beat Labour with (even if it did take them two weeks to find the policy despite the Indy trumpeting it) and means that we can only vote on a proposal to discuss rather than solid detail.

That aside my biggest concern for a government that contained Abbot and McDonnell would be that the proceeds would just go to Local Authorities to open whatever they fancied - safe spaces for lesbian vegans, yet more cycle paths et al. If it was targeted instead at, say, local authority education then I'd happily pay it, and I've got a nice garden.

oneillco · May 31, 2017

TSB said:
No point voting Lib Dem in Hove, so...err. I quite like Peter Kyle but I can't vote to help Corbyn.
Independent, perhaps.

If the GE is ratified of course.

I share your misgivings about Corbyn, but if the "reasonable person" vote in Hove is split then there is a high risk that the Tory candidate will get in, despite her being from a loony Christian church and refusing to say if she voted Leave. Peter Kyle is a very good MP and no friend of Corbyn's and so he definitely gets my vote.

Bold Seagull · May 31, 2017

Lots of good reading on LVT...

http://www.landvaluetax.org/land-value-tax/additional-arguments-in-favour-of-lvt.html

https://www.ifs.org.uk/conferences/adam_plrg_mirrlees_landandproperty_2.pdf

Wrong-Direction · May 31, 2017

wellquickwoody said:
Performance is about correct. He is doing a very good job at not appearing rattled when under pressure, let's it slip at times like yesterday morning when asked to cost the universal childcare though. A bit like a curmudgeonly old uncle, warm and fuzzy, offering home made jam from his allotment efforts and trying to offer everything to everyone, an occasional grumble or snap, but mostly a likeable, doddery old fool who happened to get grade 'E's before leaving school. Whether that is good Prime Minister material is open to debate by some, not by me as a I like the people who run the country to be at least numerically literate, and certainly not a TRAITOR.

At least they have an effing manifesto !

Sent from my SM-A310F using Tapatalk

Guinness Boy · May 31, 2017

oneillco said:
I share your misgivings about Corbyn, but if the "reasonable person" vote in Hove is split then there is a high risk that the Tory candidate will get in, despite her being from a loony Christian church and refusing to say if she voted Leave. Peter Kyle is a very good MP and no friend of Corbyn's and so he definitely gets my vote.

Agree 100%. As soon as the Conservatives put her up I knew which way I'd be voting. Then I really thought about it and realised that if Kyle gets back in there will be a voice representing Hove / Portslade and its needs AND a dissenting anti-Corbyn voice in the PLP. If Momentum then moved to deselect him Labour would lose Hove, plain and simple.

Suck it up [MENTION=267]TSB[/MENTION] - I will be.

Stumpy Tim · May 31, 2017

oneillco said:
I share your misgivings about Corbyn, but if the "reasonable person" vote in Hove is split then there is a high risk that the Tory candidate will get in, despite her being from a loony Christian church and refusing to say if she voted Leave. Peter Kyle is a very good MP and no friend of Corbyn's and so he definitely gets my vote.

Exactly my position. I voted via post on Monday, and did so for Peter Kyle.

Astonishing that YouGov are now predicting a hung parliament... May has really screwed this campaign up. The Tories have run a terrible campaign. They've allowed Labour to dictate the terms of the campaign, and that's a dreadful error. My main misgiving is having Dianne Abbott anywhere near the Home Office - awful woman

pb21 · May 31, 2017

Soulman said:
Seriously, no one knows the answers to your questions, so i might as well do what you have done, ie xyz. Whatever figures i plucked out of the sky, you could not say was right or wrong, just opinions eh.
My question had the figures, try an answer based on ACTUAL figures, not looking for an answer based on the future (unknown).

.."how would you keep up housing and infrastructure with immigration larger than Brighton and Hove put TOGETHER ie 330,000 + A YEAR as was?"......Well?

I haven't asked you for the correct answers, I wasn't expecting them, particularity after you said you don't know how these things work. I was just asking you to answer the questions?

I will give you my idea of the answers, again I don't know how these things work, these are my opinions.

Immigration has affected property prices by prices changing by ~15% over the past 20 years. Everything else that can affect property prices has affected property prices by prices changing by ~85% over the past 20 years.

Reducing net immigration to 100,000 will make a difference of ~3% to property prices.

After five years of Tory government the average property price for first time buyers will have changed from its current value of ~6 times house price/earnings ratio in the South East to ~6.5 times house price/earnings ratio, i.e, things will be more un-affordable.

Can you attempt to put three numbers in there?

Westdene Seagull · May 31, 2017

Guinness Boy said:
Agree 100%. As soon as the Conservatives put her up I knew which way I'd be voting. Then I really thought about it and realised that if Kyle gets back in there will be a voice representing Hove / Portslade and its needs AND a dissenting anti-Corbyn voice in the PLP. If Momentum then moved to deselect him Labour would lose Hove, plain and simple.

Suck it up [MENTION=267]TSB[/MENTION] - I will be.

THIS ..... plus the social care policy mess that May has overseen also persuaded me I should vote Kyle.

sparkie · May 31, 2017

The Tory will get in for sure where I live, so I'll be scrawling an additional Emmanuel Macron box on my ballot paper and voting for him.

Sadly I find Corbyn hapless, and May very loathsome.

ROSM · May 31, 2017

Stumpy Tim said:
Exactly my position. I voted via post on Monday, and did so for Peter Kyle.

Astonishing that YouGov are now predicting a hung parliament... May has really screwed this campaign up. The Tories have run a terrible campaign. They've allowed Labour to dictate the terms of the campaign, and that's a dreadful error. My main misgiving is having Dianne Abbott anywhere near the Home Office - awful woman

My hope here is that if (and its a big if) labour got to form a government that corbyn realises the need to have a wider balance in cabinet. He appears to have learnt from his early leader days where he was frankly awful at handling talented people with different opinions.

This does mean that people like abbott who have been loyal to corbyn but have risen up the ranks based on others resigning, may get a lower role in government

Soulman · May 31, 2017

pb21 said:
I haven't asked you for the correct answers, I wasn't expecting them, particularity after you said you don't know how these things work. I was just asking you to answer the questions?

I will give you my idea of the answers, again I don't know how these things work, these are my opinions.

Immigration has affected property prices by prices changing by ~15% over the past 20 years. Everything else that can affect property prices has affected property prices by prices changing by ~85% over the past 20 years.

Reducing net immigration to 100,000 will make a difference of ~3% to property prices.

After five years of Tory government the average property price for first time buyers will have changed from its current value of ~6 times house price/earnings ratio in the South East to ~6.5 times house price/earnings ratio, i.e, things will be more un-affordable.

Can you attempt to put three numbers in there?

"I will give you my idea of the answers, again I don't know how these things work, these are my opinions".

I prefer facts, we have seen post Brexit how opinions have gone. I can argue against your opinion, but no point really.

""how would you keep up housing and infrastructure with immigration larger than Brighton and Hove put TOGETHER ie 330,000 + A YEAR as was?"......Well?"

Bozza · May 31, 2017

People are voting for Kyle?

Blimey. I recall [MENTION=1416]Ernest[/MENTION]'s posts on NSC about him were pretty vicious. As someone who doesn't follow the Brighton & Hove political scene that closely, I had taken the view that he was a dreadful MP, both in the local sense and more broadly.

I might need to dig out those posts. Not to embarrass [MENTION=1416]Ernest[/MENTION] again, obviously. Just to remind myself.

Westdene Seagull · May 31, 2017

sparkie said:
The Tory will get in for sure where I live, so I'll be scrawling an additional Emmanuel Macron box on my ballot paper and voting for him.

Sadly I find Corbyn hapless, and May very loathsome.

Given you're location is listed as Hove your sureness could well be somewhat misplaced. Had the Tories stood Graham Cox again then I might agree but the Tory that has been put up is awful and Kyle has a proven track record.

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