The ultimate REFERENDUM thread

5ways · Apr 7, 2016

Westdene Seagull said:
As is automatically assuming they are right THIS time. As it stands currently none have given any evidence of their claims, just like they didn't when the Euro question came up. They were wrong then and there is nothing to evidence that they will not be wrong this time.

What do you mean no evidence? These are predictions modeled on likely economic impact. That is what top economists say (https://next.ft.com/content/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250), it is what the Cabinet Office say (http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ect-lives-of-millions-official-uk-report-says), it is what the Bank of England says (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2016/032.aspx).

There is evidence if you care to look. What we don't have evidence from from the Out campaign is how the UK will be a stronger economy outside of the EU. This raises further questions which have not been answered by outers: what will the UK's trading relationship to the EU be after Brexit? in what ways will Brexit impact the UK economy after losing access to the single market and having to trade with all other countries on a WTO basis? how long will this uncertainty last? how long will renegotiation take place? how can UK citizens be insulated from this economic trauma?

It's all based on best-case scenario, leap into the dark, Brexit-and-be-damned sort of stuff. No evidence, just bluster.

5ways · Apr 7, 2016

Maldini said:
Many countries were involved in discussions regarding the Euro.Every leader had a team of economists/business leaders etc advising them .The conclusion was that the Euro was a good idea.It's been a frecking disaster !!! So when I hear economists and business leaders telling us Brexit will mean bad news I take no notice.

Which is why we are shackled to the Euro today.

Soulman · Apr 7, 2016

Maldini said:
Why is that sad? I don't want my town over run with foreigners and like I'm said I'm part italian so how is it you 100% Brits have another idea?! I don;t get it.
Yes I know the fashion is to call people like me racist.It's always easy to hurl insults without putting together a proper argument.I'm not racist.
There are some nationalities I like and don't mind being here but others I don't and I know I can't be picky.

What's wrong with wanting England to remain English?i don't get it.For me the beauty of the world is so many different countries with their
own idenity.Their own languages,food,style of architecture,behaviour,fashions,customes,traditions.It's part of why we travel,
to see something different.However if the EU stays as it is then in 20/30 years time when there has been truly mass movement of people
then we Europe will be like one country.Everything the same.What a shame.

Good post.

Maldini · Apr 7, 2016

Some people just aren't getting it.Ok someone for the in campaign please answer these questions:

1/What is the point of staying in Europe if it's true that jobs are created if these jobs are then swallowed up by foreign workers.What are we gaining?
2/What is the point of taking in more workers when we have people who are unemployed?
3/Where will all the new foreign workers live if we have a shortage of housing?
4/How will the NHS cope if they can't cope with present numbers of sick people?
5/How can schools cope with the influx of children from abroad?
6/Is it fair that people have to wait weeks for a doctors appoinment because they
are taking on so many more foreign patients(recently had to wait 3 weeks for an appointment)
7/Is it safe for us to have open borders when the world is so unsafe?

jgmcdee · Apr 7, 2016

Maldini said:
Some people just aren't getting it.Ok someone for the in campaign please answer these questions:

I'm hardly in the "in campaign" but I'll have a go at answering these questions.

Maldini said:
1/What is the point of staying in Europe if it's true that jobs are created if these jobs are then swallowed up by foreign workers.What are we gaining?

I don't have any figures to hand on the number of jobs created by the EU Vs. jobs taken by EU workers, but I can talk in general about what is to be gained by a country taking on foreign workers. Foreign workers are in general younger, so help to pad out the lower end of the population pyramid. Even given this the population pyramid is forecast to flatten over time[1], resulting in serious issues as those who are older and more expensive (health/pension/etc) need to be subsidised by the younger and cheaper. For those who are going to be lucky enough to still be alive 30 years from now they should welcome every young worker who wants to enter our country.

Maldini said:
2/What is the point of taking in more workers when we have people who are unemployed?

As has been said many times in this thread and others, having an unemployed person doesn't mean that they are willing (in the case of low-paid/unpleasant jobs) or able (in the case of semi-skilled jobs) to take on a vacancy. The caring profession is the poster child for this, with many UK people not wanting to work for minimal wage in this sector. In addition to this a number of people who immigrate to the UK do so with a high level of skills and go on to have a good career, build companies themselves and in general prove a significant net benefit to the UK economy. Denying them the opportunity to come to the UK because we already have people is the same argument as saying that we have plenty of footballers and potential footballers in England so we shouldn't take any foreign footballers.

Maldini said:
3/Where will all the new foreign workers live if we have a shortage of housing?
4/How will the NHS cope if they can't cope with present numbers of sick people?
5/How can schools cope with the influx of children from abroad?

These are all basically the same question: how do we manage to keep our social services running with a higher population? The answer goes back to your second question, which is that we need to ensure that we have more net contributors to the economy.

Maldini said:
6/Is it fair that people have to wait weeks for a doctors appoinment because they are taking on so many more foreign patients(recently had to wait 3 weeks for an appointment)

Sit outside the doctors for 3 weeks and tell me the % of foreign patients to non-foreign patients (whatever that means) and we can talk about if this is an issue or not.

Maldini said:
7/Is it safe for us to have open borders when the world is so unsafe?

The world is safer than it has ever been, in terms of the chances of you dying on any particular day.

[1]https://populationpyramid.net/united-kingdom/2015/
(I was going to reference more but need to head out; I'm sure you can find the appropriate stats on the web)

melias shoes · Apr 7, 2016

Westdene Seagull said:
I would agree - I can see no reason why he was banned from this thread. I wonder who banned him and why ? Come on [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] - over rule your mods.

All too sinister for me. He probably had the answers they didn't want to hear. So silenced him.

Westdene Seagull · Apr 7, 2016

5ways said:
What do you mean no evidence? These are predictions modeled on likely economic impact. That is what top economists say (https://next.ft.com/content/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250), it is what the Cabinet Office say (http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ect-lives-of-millions-official-uk-report-says), it is what the Bank of England says (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2016/032.aspx).

There is evidence if you care to look. What we don't have evidence from from the Out campaign is how the UK will be a stronger economy outside of the EU. This raises further questions which have not been answered by outers: what will the UK's trading relationship to the EU be after Brexit? in what ways will Brexit impact the UK economy after losing access to the single market and having to trade with all other countries on a WTO basis? how long will this uncertainty last? how long will renegotiation take place? how can UK citizens be insulated from this economic trauma?

It's all based on best-case scenario, leap into the dark, Brexit-and-be-damned sort of stuff. No evidence, just bluster.

The links you provide are NOT evidence ..... you admit this yourself by using the word PREDICTIONS. The PREDICTIONS of these people, whom you clearly hold in such high regard, were that our economy would collapse if we didn't join the Euro. They were WRONG. So why should we believe their guesses now ? We shouldn't. Neither camp can provide proper hard evidence of what will happen with either result yet you keep claiming those supporting in are providing hard evidence, they are not, the predictions are nothing but guesses.

gregbrighton · Apr 7, 2016

GT49er said:
Laughable to think the EU will somehow protect the NHS from the tories. Any economic stability will only be used to cut taxes for their richest chums.

Exactly. The EU institutions are not there for the people. It's there for the rich elite to manipulate the politicians to serve their own financial interests and line their own pockets.

JC Footy Genius · Apr 7, 2016

pastafarian said:
Free cunning fergus

Westdene Seagull said:
I would agree - I can see no reason why he was banned from this thread. I wonder who banned him and why ? Come on [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] - over rule your mods.

Someone could of course just start a new thread .... The Official Ultimate Referendum Thread?

Maldini · Apr 7, 2016

jgmcdee said:
I'm hardly in the "in campaign" but I'll have a go at answering these questions.

I don't have any figures to hand on the number of jobs created by the EU Vs. jobs taken by EU workers, but I can talk in general about what is to be gained by a country taking on foreign workers. Foreign workers are in general younger, so help to pad out the lower end of the population pyramid. Even given this the population pyramid is forecast to flatten over time[1], resulting in serious issues as those who are older and more expensive (health/pension/etc) need to be subsidised by the younger and cheaper. For those who are going to be lucky enough to still be alive 30 years from now they should welcome every young worker who wants to enter our country.

As has been said many times in this thread and others, having an unemployed person doesn't mean that they are willing (in the case of low-paid/unpleasant jobs) or able (in the case of semi-skilled jobs) to take on a vacancy. The caring profession is the poster child for this, with many UK people not wanting to work for minimal wage in this sector. In addition to this a number of people who immigrate to the UK do so with a high level of skills and go on to have a good career, build companies themselves and in general prove a significant net benefit to the UK economy. Denying them the opportunity to come to the UK because we already have people is the same argument as saying that we have plenty of footballers and potential footballers in England so we shouldn't take any foreign footballers.

These are all basically the same question: how do we manage to keep our social services running with a higher population? The answer goes back to your second question, which is that we need to ensure that we have more net contributors to the economy.

Sit outside the doctors for 3 weeks and tell me the % of foreign patients to non-foreign patients (whatever that means) and we can talk about if this is an issue or not.

The world is safer than it has ever been, in terms of the chances of you dying on any particular day.

[1]https://populationpyramid.net/united-kingdom/2015/
(I was going to reference more but need to head out; I'm sure you can find the appropriate stats on the web)

Foreign workers are younger?For every young foreign worker we have an eqivalent british worker.20 years ago we did all of the low paid crap but now foreign workers have pushed down wages plus bosses aren't so bothered on providing good working conditions/benefits/incentives etc because they know it's easy to replace these people.As we take on more and more foreign workers it won't just be the low paid rubbish that british workers won't do.As foreign workers get absorbed into all kinds of jobs on a higher level they will drag more and more wages and conditions down and give british workers less and less options.I see the construction industry in particular being over taken by cheap foreign workers.

The 'caring profession' has no incentive to train british workers because they don't have to.What a shame.Joining the EU has made some professions lazy and so more and more foreign workers are being used where we could have trained our own.
Those who come to the UK and build companies,employing workers are in the minority.Most foreign workers are not highly skilled and do average jobs.Their limited english makes progress upwards difficult.

We can have more net contibutors by leaving the EU which will then force companies to pay higher wages and provide better conditions for british workers.

I'm not going to sit outside my doctors for three weeks because I have to go to work.
What about the NHS?What about schools?

The world is safer?The world,or our little world in the UK would be even safer if it was not so easy to come here.

Sorry but you haven't convinced me in the slightest.I know on the other hand I've turned you around

pastafarian · Apr 7, 2016

JC Footy Genius said:
Someone could of course just start a new thread .... The Official Ultimate Referendum Thread?

come on [MENTION=5729]sir albion[/MENTION] you know it makes sense

free cunning fergus :ban:

jgmcdee · Apr 8, 2016

Maldini said:
For every young foreign worker we have an eqivalent british worker.

No, we don't on either a pure numbers basis or on an equivalent skills basis.

The pure numbers basis is the whole point of the population pyramid link that I provided: the number of young (20-34) people in the UK as a percentage of total population is low and decreasing, and the only thing stopping it from collapsing is immigration. From a recent Migration Observatory report[1]:

About 74% of foreign-born workers who arrived in the UK between 2009 and 2014 are distributed in the two younger groups (17% in the 16-24 age group and 56% in the 25-35 age group).

Youth unemployment in the UK isn't great at 412,000 but it is decreasing[2]. And yes it is very important to find jobs for them for any number of reasons, but blaming the lack of jobs purely on immigration is missing a number of other important factors including the macroeconomic situation and the increasing retirement age.

Maldini said:
now foreign workers have pushed down wages

Maldini said:
As foreign workers get absorbed into all kinds of jobs on a higher level they will drag more and more wages and conditions down

Maldini said:
We can have more net contibutors by leaving the EU which will then force companies to pay higher wages

Figure 7 in [1] shows that wages have pretty much equalised between the uk-born and foreign-born population of the UK, and indeed have been since 2006, so the concept of immigrants dragging down pay is outmoded.

Maldini said:
The world is safer?The world,or our little world in the UK would be even safer if it was not so easy to come here.

If it were not so easy to come here then many people would die daily due to the lack of qualified doctors and nurses in our health profession alone. So no, the UK would not be safer if it was not so easy to come here.

And the perpetrators of the 7/7 bombers[3] and Lee Rigby's murderer[4] were born in the UK, so it wouldn't have stopped either of the two most memorable terrorist incidents in recent times.

[1]http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/sites/files/migobs/Briefing%20-%20Characteristics%20and%20Outcomes%20of%20Migrants%20in%20the%20UK%20Labour%20Market_0.pdf
[2]http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05871/SN05871.pdf
[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_July_2005_London_bombings#Bombers
[4]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Lee_Rigby#Michael_Adebolajo

Soulman · Apr 8, 2016

Arrogant Brussels politicians insisted the plot to bring Kiev further into their sphere of influence will go ahead, even though it was last night overwhelmingly rejected by the Dutch people.

Germany’s Angela Merkel told journalists the Dutch ‘no’ vote will be “managed as we have managed other difficult issues before”, whilst French president Francois Hollande said the EU will “implement and apply” the rejected treaty.

And EU President Jean-Claude Juncker today expressly REFUSED to rule out steamrollering the Dutch people's democratic rights and enforcing the deal on them anyway.

sparkie · Apr 8, 2016

Soulman said:
Arrogant Brussels politicians insisted the plot to bring Kiev further into their sphere of influence will go ahead, even though it was last night overwhelmingly rejected by the Dutch people.

Germany’s Angela Merkel told journalists the Dutch ‘no’ vote will be “managed as we have managed other difficult issues before”, whilst French president Francois Hollande said the EU will “implement and apply” the rejected treaty.

And EU President Jean-Claude Juncker today expressly REFUSED to rule out steamrollering the Dutch people's democratic rights and enforcing the deal on them anyway.

The Dutch vote was never legally binding in the Netherlands and just a suggestion for their government. Only slightly above the minimum voting threshold, and if the Dutch government use their democratric right under their own rules to not change policy then who are we to argue :shrug:

By the way, 'Overwhelming' is a bit strong. ~20% of the total possible voters is hardly 'overwhelming' :lolol:

Deleted member 22389 · Apr 8, 2016

sparkie said:
The Dutch vote was never legally binding in the Netherlands and just a suggestion for their government. Only slightly above the minimum voting threshold, and if the Dutch government use their democratric right under their own rules to not change policy then who are we to argue

Legally binding or not the Dutch government and EU should listen to the views of people here, they all contribute individually to the EU pot through the taxes they pay, who the **** do the EU think they area. It's undemocratic. This is another reason why I hate the EU and this is why I shall be voting Leave.

On top of this they will soon they will be forcing all countries to accept to accept migrant quotas whether the people in those countries like it or not, and they also want a common asylum policy. It's completely wrong. The EU could function without these middle men creaming off hundreds of millions of pounds a day.

sparkie · Apr 8, 2016

bashlsdir said:
Legally binding or not the Dutch government and EU should listen to the views of people here, they all contribute individually to the EU pot through the taxes they pay, who the **** do the EU think they area. It's undemocratic. This is another reason why I hate the EU and this is why I shall be voting Leave.

On top of this they will soon they will be forcing all countries to accept to accept migrant quotas whether the people in those countries like it or not, and they also want a common asylum policy. It's completely wrong.

But it is not undemocratic. The rules are in the Netherlands that this type of referendum called after a petition is not binding on the Government.

It is nothing to do with the EU thinking they are anything.

Just over 20% of the Dutch electorate voted this through.

Everyone knew in advance it wasn't binding. If it had been binding, do you not think more would have bothered to vote ?

Brighton Mod · Apr 8, 2016

sparkie said:
The Dutch vote was never legally binding in the Netherlands and just a suggestion for their government. Only slightly above the minimum voting threshold, and if the Dutch government use their democratric right under their own rules to not change policy then who are we to argue

By the way, 'Overwhelming' is a bit strong. ~20% of the total possible voters is hardly 'overwhelming'

And so the debate goes on, everyone quoting unquantifiable figures that are expounded by governments and their apparatus. There many strong case for and against and at some stage we will all go with a feeling in our minds built up over the last few years.

Some of you won't remember but in the early part of the naughties the goverment ran a campaign, 'are you ready'. This was for business to convert to the euro, the downside of not joining being that we would lose 3 million jobs in this country, we didn't join and we didn't lose 3 million jobs. Now coming out of the euro will cost us 3 million jobs, its all too convenient.

Of the Polish workers who work for me, a greater majority of them feel that we should leave, they see the issue clearly in terms of what the EU does and how it affects them.

Loss of sovereignty is a much quoted term but the loss of control on our own affairs is what the press should be talking about. Why do our politicians at Westminster concentrate so much on the NHS and education, this is because thats just about all they have left to legislate on as everything else is directed and controlled from Brussels.

Europe is becoming more Germancentric, whilst Germany has the largest car industry in Europe it has come at the expense of closing SEAT factories in Spain and bringing them back to Germany, Merkel says open the borders and migrants flock in, Merkel does a deal, hugely expensive, with Turkey and the borders are closed. The Greeks are hammered with draconian financial measures so they can receive a bail out on their debt, but the Greeks see only 10% of the money as the rest goes straight to German and French banks to pay off loans. The Greek bailout was a central Europe bank bailout! We watch with horror at small boats capsizing as migrants attempt to cross a small stretch of water while the EU does...... nothing, eventually navies are mobilised to patrol and repatriate and save the lives of those who don't make it, but the mission is sponsored by NATO. MI6 and GCHQ must be smarting as they watch the failure of German, french and Belgian intelligence services, but we are told we are safer in Europe then out of it, we're still in NATO and have our own defence treaty with France!

The European Project as it has been termed is failing, economically, socially, strategically, in trade, in governance, defence, democratically and morally. Some are scared to leave because of what they fear afterwards, I quote Mark twain ' do the thing you fear and the death of fear is certain'. Never in the history of the known world have such a large body of people been so let down and fooled by so few. Forget the figures and percentages go with what's inside you, we're stronger than most would think.

sparkie · Apr 8, 2016

Look, there are many valid reasons to be unhappy with the EU.

But this Dutch referendum isn't one of them.

Deleted member 22389 · Apr 8, 2016

sparkie said:
But it is not undemocratic. The rules are in the Netherlands that this type of referendum called after a petition is not binding on the Government.

It is nothing to do with the EU thinking they are anything.

Just over 20% of the Dutch electorate voted this through.

Everyone knew in advance it wasn't binding. If it had been binding, do you not think more would have bothered to vote ?

The point is peoples views need to be listened too, these people contribute to the EU pot through their taxes like we do, it is not up to the EU to start forcing things through without the full consent of every single person in the EU, the reason they don't want people views is because they all damn well know what the answer will be.

sparkie · Apr 8, 2016

bashlsdir said:
The point is peoples views need to be listened too, these people contribute to the EU pot through their taxes like we do, it is not up to the EU to start forcing things through without the full consent of every single person in the EU, the reason they don't want people views is because they all damn well know what the answer will be.

In the case of the Dutch referendum, the EU isn't 'forcing anything through'.

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