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To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker 36 - level - WE ARE STAYING UP



Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
14,836
Let's just win every game from now and push for the Europa league [emoji23]🖒

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
 






Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,151
Goldstone
With stoke Newcastle and Huddersfield all getting away points it actually wasn't a great day for us
Apart from the fact we won, I agree.
Looks like we will need another 7 points to stay up.
We have 5 games against the big 6. Zero points from those games so far. Two away games against top half teams (Everton and Burnley). Zero points from those away games so far.
What do you mean, zero from those away games so far? We haven't played them.
That leaves 3 games to get the seven points. No room for any bad performance or bad luck.
Not quite, there's room for some points elsewhere.
 


Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,528
Huddersfield +1
Albion -1
Palace -1
West Ham -2
Newcastle -3
Swansea -5
Southampton -6
Stoke -6
West Brom -8

Excellent analysis. I have been meaning to do the same for some time.

It highlights a good position for us and also shows how the bottom four are worse off than they seem.
 








Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,151
Goldstone
That’s depressed me
Why?
We are one point behind
The main reason it shouldn't be depressing is that we're 1 point behind a target of 40, and it shouldn't take 40 points. We also have a reasonable GD (although that could change easily over the last few games).

We should win at least 2 maybe 3 from Eve,Hud, Lei, Pal, Bur with a couple of draws from these or the other games and we’ll be laughing.
I wouldn't say at least 2, maybe 3 there. It will be tough to win any of the 3 aways, and while we'll be hopeful with the two home games, we probably won't win both. I'd bite your arm off for 2 wins there.

Losing 12 out of 12 against the top 6 would be depressing, we have to get something, and the best chance is next Sunday.
 


BrianWade4

Well-known member
Aug 17, 2010
3,152
A nice bit of South London
The main reason it shouldn't be depressing is that we're 1 point behind a target of 40, and it shouldn't take 40 points. We also have a reasonable GD (although that could change easily over the last few games).

I wouldn't say at least 2, maybe 3 there. It will be tough to win any of the 3 aways, and while we'll be hopeful with the two home games, we probably won't win both. I'd bite your arm off for 2 wins there.

Losing 12 out of 12 against the top 6 would be depressing, we have to get something, and the best chance is next Sunday.

I agree re. Arsenal
Especially as they play City again Thurs night so will be knackered

Hit them hard from the off....
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,151
Goldstone
I'd be extremely surprised if any team with 34 points go down. And 32 is more than likely to be enough.
Madness surely?
I would say the AVERAGE amount of points the teams in the bottom half will get from their last 10 matches is 9.
Well so far this season, the bottom half have averaged 1 point per game, so 10 from the last 10 is more likely.

However, with so many teams on about 26-28 points some will get 11-14 points and some will get 4 or 5.
Only 4 teams on 26-28, and while I can see West Brom getting 4 or less, I can't see 2 of the 4 clubs above them doing the same. No chance that 32 is enough.
 


dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
52,348
Burgess Hill
We’ve got more points in our last 5 games than Chelsea, Arsenal, Burnley and Leicester.......no reason why we can’t continue some decent form.
 


Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
14,836
We’ve got more points in our last 5 games than Chelsea, Arsenal, Burnley and Leicester.......no reason why we can’t continue some decent form.

Last four games, we're THIRD in the form table :rock::albion2:
 




Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
16,629
Fiveways
Madness surely?
Well so far this season, the bottom half have averaged 1 point per game, so 10 from the last 10 is more likely.

Only 4 teams on 26-28
, and while I can see West Brom getting 4 or less, I can't see 2 of the 4 clubs above them doing the same. No chance that 32 is enough.

1 on 20, 1 on 26, and 3 on 27. I'm not convinced that two of the final four will get 10 more points, leaving 36/37 as good enough for survival, especially with a good goal difference.
 


Tim Over Whelmed

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 24, 2007
10,183
Arundel
A point per game played will be more than enough this year, so we need seven points from ten games, job done in my opinion.
 


scamander

New member
Aug 9, 2011
596
I think you'll be fine, you took on a resurgent Swansea and soundly beat them. Huge match for you in terms of avoiding the drop and you came out really well from it.
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,151
Goldstone
1 on 20, 1 on 26, and 3 on 27. I'm not convinced that two of the final four will get 10 more points, leaving 36/37 as good enough for survival, especially with a good goal difference.
You've highlighted part of my post, but it was correct. I removed WB as we can assume they're down (I know they're not, strange things can happen, but for the sake of trying to make predictions I'm going to assume they are). The Camel said "32 is more than likely to be enough" which is crazy talk. Yes it could happen, but it's not more than likely.

As for your prediction, I don't know. I could see SCC, Palace and Swansea getting 10 more points. That's only a point a game, which is pretty much what they've got up to now. Too difficult to predict.
 


Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
A Southampton v Stoke draw on Saturday will surely reduce our points required target.

Come on both goalies !!!

:albion2:
 


dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
52,348
Burgess Hill
Unsophisticated I know, but a simple replication of form over the last 10 over the final 10 would leave the table looking something like this :

City 95
Liverpool 80
Spurs 79
Man U 77
Chelsea 68
Arsenal 57
B'Muff 48
Leicester 46
Watford 44
BHA 44
Everton 43
Hudds 43
West Ham 43
Burnley 42
Swansea 42
Hudds 39
Palace 37
Soton 36
Stoke 36
West Brom 26
 


dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
52,348
Burgess Hill
What happened to Newcastle?

Good point, thanks...that'll teach me to do it manually

City 95
Liverpool 80
Spurs 79
Man U 77
Chelsea 68
Arsenal 57
B'Muff 48
Leicester 46
Watford 44
BHA 44
Newcastle 36
Everton 43
West Ham 43
Burnley 42
Swansea 42
Hudds 39
Palace 37
Soton 36
Stoke 36
West Brom 26
 




FatSuperman

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2016
2,830
Good point, thanks...that'll teach me to do it manually

City 95
Liverpool 80
Spurs 79
Man U 77
Chelsea 68
Arsenal 57
B'Muff 48
Leicester 46
Watford 44
BHA 44
Newcastle 36
Everton 43
West Ham 43
Burnley 42
Swansea 42
Hudds 39
Palace 37
Soton 36
Stoke 36
West Brom 26

I think it's unfair that Newcastle are so high in the table, with such a low points total. Surely this is not allowed! :)
 




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