[Politics] Will Brexit Actually Happen

Pavilionaire said:

You're obsessed with facts. We've talking about the future, so this is speculation based on the predictability of behaviour, which is uncertain. It only becomes a fact when it has happened.

But if business locates to the UK partly because the UK is in the EU it stands to reason if we're not in the EU then some of the business will leave the UK for the EU so they remain in it.

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cunning fergus said:

This is what you are not understanding......the EU financial services companies are in the UK because the markets with the most liquidity are here, the law of finance is common law, there are thousands of legal and services businesses here.

You can just shift all that to Frankfurt.

It’s like saying if Germany left the EU all their engineering and manufacturing would move on to other countries. It wouldn’t because the infrastructure and expertise is too embedded.

I’m sure it would be used as a threat in the discourse, and no doubt the simple minded will damp their mattresses.

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happypig said:

Ah, the voice of wisdom.

Unfortunately it's Norman Wisdom as there wasn't a referendum in 1973.

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cunning fergus said:

oneillco said:

How about the EU’s constant drive to enlarge itself taking on shithole countries?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...arting-accession-talks-with-macedonia-albania

Albania FFS........

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So that's it is it? The only "dangerous direction that the EU is heading in" that anyone can come-up with is that negotiations are to start with two small countries about the possibility of entering the EU at some point in the future...

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oneillco said:

Well Cunning Fergus I can report that the European owned financial services provider I work for has dramatically reduced its London operation to re-size for a post-Brexit world. A third of jobs have been re-patriated out of London already. Friends at other organisations report similar shifts of departments/functions out of the UK. Not closing-up shop but certainly reducing London exposure. The key question is whether this slow exodus picks-up momentum over the next 25 years...

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oneillco said:

cunning fergus said:

So that's it is it? The only "dangerous direction that the EU is heading in" that anyone can come-up with is that negotiations are to start with two small countries about the possibility of entering the EU at some point in the future...

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Yep.....when I think of dangerous places in the world I would include the Balkans......evidently you don’t.

Interesting....

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Brian Parsons said:

Yes there was, it was was to decide wether or not we remained in the Common Market. We were all unaware of the behemoth that is the EU was on its way. If we had known I feel we would have left then. Coincidentally that was the first time the Forces had the right to vote.

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Brian Parsons said:

Yes there was, it was was to decide wether or not we remained in the Common Market. We were all unaware of the behemoth that is the EU was on its way. If we had known I feel we would have left then. Coincidentally that was the first time the Forces had the right to vote.

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cunning fergus said:

My experience is to the contrary, I know of no major FS business that has made any such step.....lots of contingency plans have been made as should be expected, most major businesses I am aware of have agreed to make notifications to Govt agencies before any meaningful decisions on movements take place. In Dublin there has been floor space reserved but no other steps like recruitment etc. The CBOI are requesting firms visit them before any practical steps are taken.

Any company that has “dramatically” reduced its UK team in preparation for the post Brexit world will have completely jumped off a cliff before knowing what the final deal is......if it includes equivalence given that the U.K. is already operating under MiFID 2, MLD4, CRD5 etc. equivalence is not a technical issue merely political then nothing happens.

Your company is either insignificant, run by knobheads or you are lying.....

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OzMike said:

Yes and sooner rather than later, not that it will affect me much.
I still think that England needs it's independence.

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cunning fergus said:

oneillco said:

Yep.....when I think of dangerous places in the world I would include the Balkans......evidently you don’t.

Interesting....

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And were it ever to transpire that said countries joined the EU would it not make the region safer? There has never been armed conflict between two EU states. Oh and please stop being so pompous.

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oneillco said:

Hahahaha..! Insignificant no - quite the opposite. Run by knobheads - possibly. Lying - no; I'm not talking about front office functions. In fact a friend is working for a Japanese bank which is in advanced stages of re-locating from London to Frankfurt. Maybe you don't know everything?

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Brian Parsons said:

You'd better hope it does happen, because if the remoaners get their way and we stay we can wave bye bye to the Pound and we'll be so heavily punished financially for having for having the temerity to try to leave we'll be the new Greece.

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cunning fergus said:

oneillco said:

How about the EU’s constant drive to enlarge itself taking on shithole countries?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...arting-accession-talks-with-macedonia-albania

Albania FFS........

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Wasn't the Common market instigated to improve the lives of the citizens of its member states?
One thing I've learned during my lifetime is....... if you live in a shit house and do nothing you'll always live in a shit house. The same goes for lesser countries, if they're shift holes and you do nothing they'll always be shit holes.

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beorhthelm said:

there are several Japanese banks so doubt one might be opening Frankfurt operations. however i read this month one of them Sumitomo, signed new lease in London, joining Deutsche Bank, Bank of America and others that have extended leases well into the next decade. smaller but significant Estonian bank LHV has announced its opening operations in UK. its a very fluid situation for the sector.

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Garry Nelson's teacher said:

Just as The Titanic was a very fluid situation?

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beorhthelm said:

there are several Japanese banks so doubt one might be opening Frankfurt operations. however i read this month one of them Sumitomo, signed new lease in London, joining Deutsche Bank, Bank of America and others that have extended leases well into the next decade. smaller but significant Estonian bank LHV has announced its opening operations in UK. its a very fluid situation for the sector.

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cunning fergus said:

That’s as maybe, but Corbyn as PM is likely to be far more destabilising for the City than Brexit.

The legions of pro EU Tory supporters on this board who are constantly waving a flag that the City will not cope with Brexit are demonstrating woeful ignorance. With Labour in and Corbyn as PM its Brexit + socialism.

It will be more Tax, nationalisation and much more regulation on markets and bonuses that will ultimately see off the fat cats. I can’t wait!

Hasta la Victoria Siempere.....

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pastafarian said:

First Brexit poll for many months, Mods can you let it run for a few days before merging with the other thread.

Some on the Brexit thread are convinced Brexit wont happen, have they got their finger on the pulse? Or just inserting it inappropriately?

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