[Politics] Brexit

Baldseagull · Jan 15, 2017

JC Footy Genius said:
You know when you said your ongoing negativity might seem a bit OTT /annoying ....

Seriously though, a bilateral deal between two close Allies, both eager to make a deal, should be easier and quicker than accommodating 27 other interests. Many diametrically opposed to ours.

Fair comment.

Definitely will not have to worry about our Olive farmers being undercut, but there will still be a lot of areas of difficulty. There are a large number of state and federal subsidies to industry in the US that could give them an unfair advantage over our domestic industries.

JC Footy Genius · Jan 15, 2017

Baldseagull said:
Fair comment.

Definitely will not have to worry about our Olive farmers being undercut, but there will still be a lot of areas of difficulty. There are a large number of state and federal subsidies to industry in the US that could give them an unfair advantage over our domestic industries.

Yes it will be complex and difficult as these agreements/negotiations always are but still likely to come to a mutually beneficial agreement in the near future which must be considered a plus.

JC Footy Genius · Jan 15, 2017

The UK is "doing great" following its vote to leave the EU, US President-elect Donald Trump has said.

In his first UK interview, with former justice secretary Michael Gove for the Times, Mr Trump said he thought the UK was "so smart in getting out".

Mr Trump promised a quick trade deal between the US and the UK after he takes office in five days time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38631832

Spooky ... anyone who wants to know the winning lottery numbers for next week pm me. :wink:

Baldseagull · Jan 15, 2017

JC Footy Genius said:
The UK is "doing great" following its vote to leave the EU, US President-elect Donald Trump has said.

In his first UK interview, with former justice secretary Michael Gove for the Times, Mr Trump said he thought the UK was "so smart in getting out".

Mr Trump promised a quick trade deal between the US and the UK after he takes office in five days time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38631832

Spooky ... anyone who wants to know the winning lottery numbers for next week pm me.

I don't think we can trust what comes out of Trumps mouth, and in a lot of cases I hope that he does not do what he has said.
I also don't think we can really get to the nitty gritty with the US until we have sorted out terms with the EU, and if any, what portion of quotas the UK keeps, for that produce where we use them for sales outside the EU.
I am a bit doubtful that he will even remain President for the full term without impeachment, every time he is asked about how he will separate his business affairs so that he is not able to benefit from decisions of his Presidency, he somehow shifts the topic and says something outrageous enough to get the headline.

JC Footy Genius · Jan 15, 2017

Baldseagull said:
I don't think we can trust what comes out of Trumps mouth, and in a lot of cases I hope that he does not do what he has said.
I also don't think we can really get to the nitty gritty with the US until we have sorted out terms with the EU, and if any, what portion of quotas the UK keeps, for that produce where we use them for sales outside the EU.
I am a bit doubtful that he will even remain President for the full term without impeachment, every time he is asked about how he will separate his business affairs so that he is not able to benefit from decisions of his Presidency, he somehow shifts the topic and says something outrageous enough to get the headline.

You make some good points especially around our future trade relationship with the EU affecting other trade negotiations. As for what comes out of his mouth, the full Times interview ...

Donald Trump interview: Brexit will be a great thing

During the race for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump had an insult for every rival. Marco Rubio was “little Marco” and Jeb Bush was “low energy Jeb”. These jibes were more than just debating techniques to unsettle his opponents. They were carefully designed to draw a contrast between The Donald and The Others. Because when you meet him you realise there is nothing, absolutely nothing, small-scale or low-wattage about America’s president-elect.

Donald J Trump appears like a man who has been plugged into some power source where the dial has been turned up to levels well beyond what the safety regulations would recommend. His skin glows a sodium orange, his hair is blonder than any human you will have encountered and his clothes are in primary colours so bold they make everyone else in the room seem dowdy.

Ever since a Virginia farmer called George Washington launched his bid for glory, the British have had a tendency to underestimate American presidents. Especially Republicans. When Abraham Lincoln was in the White House, our government sympathised with the Confederacy. When Ronald Reagan was commander-in-chief, the British foreign policy establishment derided him as a trigger-happy cowboy who was in danger of pitching us into a third world war.

But no Republican, indeed no president, has come to office facing anything like the level of scorn and condescension from British politicians and commentators as Mr Trump. When we talked last Friday, however, he had nothing but kind words and generous sentiments for a nation he believes will be his strongest ally.

I was invited to see the president-elect, along with my colleague Kai Diekmann, from the German newspaper Bild, because Mr Trump wanted to chat about Britain, Brexit, Europe and the world. The Trump team knew that Kai was close to German chancellors, from Kohl to Merkel, and was aware of my role as a campaigner for Brexit. We chatted, on and off the record, for an hour in his corner office in Trump Tower, surrounded by mementoes of his past successes, commercial and political.

British politicians tend to hide photographs, cartoons and front pages that chronicle their careers in the loo to appear self-deprecating. With Mr Trump, everything is on display in his glitzy, golden man cave, from admiring profiles in magazines to Christmas cards from world leaders.

And, ultra-competitive as he is, the president-elect was particularly keen to remind me that, almost alone among international figures, he had had the natural good judgment to foresee our departure from the EU.

“I sort of, as you know, predicted it. I was in Turnberry [his Scottish golf course] and was doing a ribbon cutting because I bought Turnberry, which is doing unbelievably, and I’ll tell you, the fact that your pound sterling has gone down? Great. Because business is unbelievable in a lot of parts in the UK, as you know. I think Brexit is going to end up being a great thing.”

And would he, as our government hoped, move quickly to seal a new trade deal with the UK? “Absolutely, very quickly. I’m a big fan of the UK, we’re gonna work very hard to get it done quickly and done properly. Good for both sides. I will be meeting with [Theresa May] — in fact if you want you can see the letter, wherever the letter is, she just sent it. She’s requesting a meeting and we’ll have a meeting right after I get into the White House and . . . we’re gonna get something done very quickly.”

The president-elect is much less sanguine about the future of the EU itself. A combination of economic woes and the migrant crisis will, he believes, lead to other countries leaving. “People, countries, want their own identity and the UK wanted its own identity. But, I do believe this, if they hadn’t been forced to take in all of the refugees, so many, with all the problems that it . . . entails, I think that you wouldn’t have a Brexit. This was the final straw that broke the camel’s back. . . I believe others will leave. I do think keeping it together is not gonna be as easy as a lot of people think. And I think this, if refugees keep pouring into different parts of Europe . . . I think it’s gonna be very hard to keep it together because people are angry about it.”

While he expresses admiration for Angela Merkel, Mr Trump believes that she made “one catastrophic mistake” by welcoming an unlimited number of Syrian refugees. More than one million migrants from north Africa and the Middle East arrived between 2015 and 2016. He adds that he believes the West should have built safe zones in Syria — paid for by the Gulf — to limit the surge. “I think she made one very catastrophic mistake and that was taking all of these illegals, you know taking all of the people from wherever they come from. And nobody even knows where they come from.”

There is no rancour or glee in his prediction of the break-up of the EU, quite the opposite. His demeanour is warm and genial, the flame-throwing rhetoric of his rallies and press conferences replaced with showers of compliments. He describes Jean-Claude Juncker as a very fine gentleman, and says that he has great respect for Mrs Merkel.

His pessimism about the EU is rooted in his view of it as anti-jobs and anti-growth. And it springs, as so much of his world view does, from his experience as a businessman rather than any ideological preconception.

“I own a big property in Ireland, magnificent property called Doonbeg. What happened is I went for an approval to do this massive, beautiful expansion — that was when I was a developer, now I couldn’t care less about it . . . but I learnt a lot because . . . they were using environmental tricks to stop a project from being built. I found it to be a very unpleasant experience. To get the approvals from the EU would have taken years. I don’t think that’s good for a country like Ireland. So you know what I did? I said forget it, I’m not gonna build it.”

Mr Trump’s view is that Europe is dominated by Germany, and Britain was wise to extract itself: “You look at the European Union and it’s Germany. Basically a vehicle for Germany. That’s why I thought the UK was so smart in getting out.”

Mr Trump’s hostility to the EU has been matched by his scepticism towards another pillar of the postwar order, Nato. But the president-elect was at pains to emphasise that he is committed to the defence of Europe and the West. His concerns are, principally, that Nato had not reformed to meet the main threat that we face — Islamist terrorism — and its members had relied too heavily on America. “I said a long time ago that Nato had problems. Number one it was obsolete, because it was designed many, many years ago. Number two the countries aren’t paying what they’re supposed to pay. I took such heat, when I said Nato was obsolete. It’s obsolete because it wasn’t taking care of terror. I took a lot of heat for two days. And then they started saying Trump is right.

“And the other thing is the countries aren’t paying their fair share so we’re supposed to protect countries. But a lot of these countries aren’t paying what they’re supposed to be paying, which I think is very unfair to the United States. With that being said, Nato is very important to me. There’s five countries that are paying what they’re supposed to. Five. It’s not much.”

Strengthening US defences was at the forefront of Mr Trump’s mind during our conversation and he went into significant detail off the record about weapons programmes, procurement and Pentagon reform.

He’s no Kissinger and you’d no more expect him to discuss Clausewitz and Kennan than set fire to his own hair. But intelligence takes many forms. And Mr Trump’s number-rich analysis of defence spending reflects a businessman’s ability to cut through jargon to get to the essentials of a case.

The same Trump who uses gladiatorial press conferences and CAPITALISED tweets to hurl huge crude blocks of rhetoric at opponents is also the master of the P&L accounts and the determined negotiator who sees government as a failing corporation ripe for re-engineering.

Mario Cuomo, former governor of New York, once said that American politicians campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Mr Trump campaigned in 140-character Twitter storms and intends to govern by spreadsheet. So when I ask about, for example, Iran he makes it clear that his approach is that of a man who doesn’t want to see his country suckered again.

“Well I don’t want to say what I’m gonna do with the Iran deal. I just don’t want to play the cards. I mean, look, I’m not a politician, I don’t go out and say, “I’m gonna do this” — I’m gonna do, I gotta do what I gotta do . . . But I’m not happy with the Iran deal, I think it’s one of the worst deals ever made, I think it’s one of the dumbest deals I’ve ever seen . . . Where you give . . . $150 billion back to a country, where you give 1.7 billion in cash. Did you ever see $100 million in hundred-dollar bills? It’s a lot. 1.7 billion in cash. Plane loads. Many planes. Boom. 1.7 billion. I don’t understand. I think that money is in Swiss bank accounts.”

It is not just foreign leaders at whom he vents spleen. The invasion of Iraq, he argues, was “one of the worst decisions, possibly the worst decision, ever made in the history of our country. It’s like throwing rocks into a beehive.”

Mr Trump’s transactional approach to politics means he wants to avoid taking up fixed positions towards other leaders too soon. He intends to give them the benefit of the doubt initially. And he hopes such an approach can lead to de-escalating international tensions. Specifically, he floated the idea of reviewing sanctions on Russia if President Putin is prepared to move away from confrontation. “They have sanctions on Russia — let’s see if we can make some good deals with Russia. For one thing, I think nuclear weapons should be way down and reduced very substantially, that’s part of it. But Russia’s hurting very badly right now because of sanctions, but I think something can happen that a lot of people are gonna benefit.”

Despite a strong desire to improve relations with Russia, Mr Trump was unequivocal in his condemnation of its role in Syria. He was also implicitly critical of President Obama for failing to restrain President Assad and Mr Putin. “It’s a very bad thing, we had a chance to do something when we had the line in the sand and . . . nothing happened. That was the only time. And now, it’s sort of very late. It’s too late . . . But Aleppo was nasty. I mean when you see them shooting old ladies walking out of town — they can’t even walk and they’re shooting ’em — it almost looks like they’re shooting ’em for sport — ah no, that’s . . . a terrible situation.”

Talking of Russia inevitably brings us to the allegations that the Kremlin has compromising material garnered during a Trump visit to Moscow for the Miss Universe contest. The president-elect is, unsurprisingly, dismissive of the allegations but he did express disquiet at the involvement of a former MI6 officer.

“That guy is somebody that you should look at, because whatever he made up about me it was false. He was supposedly hired by the Republicans and Democrats working together. Even that I don’t believe because they don’t work together, they work separately and they don’t hire the same guy. What, they got together?

“When I just heard it I ripped up the mat . . . If I did that in a hotel it’d be the biggest thing. They’d have me on the front page of the New York Post, right? And the other thing, I can’t even, I don’t even want to shake hands with people now I hear about this stuff.”

Despite all of Mr Trump’s expressions of admiration for Mr Putin and Mrs Merkel, he revealed that he was prepared to cut ties with both: “Well, I start off trusting both — but let’s see how long that lasts. It may not last long at all.”

Mr Trump’s conversation flows like a river in spate, overwhelming interruptions and objections, reflecting the force of nature that is the man. But it would be a mistake to think that he is all instinct and impulse. He wants to bring to governing the same calculating business style that he has brought to communicating. While he has been criticised for tweeting attacks on everyone from Meryl Streep to the civil rights hero John Lewis, he has no intention of abandoning Twitter because he believes it gives him a direct connection to the American people.

“@realDonaldTrump I think, I’ll keep it . . . so I’ve got 46 million people right now — that’s a lot, that’s really a lot — but 46 million — including Facebook, Twitter and ya know, Instagram, so when you think that you’re 46 million there, I’d rather just let that build up and just keep it @realDonaldTrump, it’s working — and the tweeting, I thought I’d do less of it, but I’m covered so dishonestly by the press — so dishonestly — that I can put out Twitter — and it’s not 140, it’s now 280 — I can go bing bing bing . . . and they put it on and as soon as I tweet it out — this morning on television, Fox — ‘Donald Trump, we have breaking news’.”

Breaking news is one thing we certainly won’t be short of with President Trump in the White House.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...xit-britain-trade-deal-europe-queen-5m0bc2tns

studio150 · Jan 15, 2017

JC Footy Genius said:
The UK is "doing great" following its vote to leave the EU, US President-elect Donald Trump has said.

In his first UK interview, with former justice secretary Michael Gove for the Times, Mr Trump said he thought the UK was "so smart in getting out".

Mr Trump promised a quick trade deal between the US and the UK after he takes office in five days time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38631832

Spooky ... anyone who wants to know the winning lottery numbers for next week pm me.

Very strange. I watched the coverage on Sky News which included video of the interview and when Gove mentions the UK being now at the front if the queue the issue was side stepped by Trump.

Also in respect of who to talk in Europe Germany was mentioned rather than the UK.

Two sides of the same coin?

Only time will tell but I don't think any USA/UK deal will be quickly achieved

Soulman · Jan 16, 2017

Herr Tubthumper said:
Post 25135, you see the text which says "One has to ask"

Can't see a question, can't answer now due to late dinner eh. Some might see this as buying yourself time to think up an answer or maybe even trying to avoid the question all together. I'll take these sincerely and at face value and wait.

You enjoy accusing posters of avoiding answering your questions/demands.

Soulman · Jan 16, 2017

Baldseagull said:
It's easy to do a shitty deal quickly, it will take time to get the right deal. Time we may not have, so we may end up with the quick shitty deal.

How do you know on all three of your prophecies.

pastafarian · Jan 16, 2017

Lincoln Imp said:
Just because the thread title has changed it doesn't mean you HAVE to name-call. I accept that it would be difficult for you and Pretty Pink Fairy to stop after all this time so carry on if it makes you happy.

i am content with applying the name weasel to those that deserve the title.
well done for swerving the question though.
Was it that hard?
Ill ask again with a little more clarity.
Are you a weasel that wants the vote overturned so we remain in The EU as some would wish or should we leave The EU as per the referendum vote?

pastafarian · Jan 16, 2017

Herr Tubthumper said:
Post 25135, you see the text which says "One has to ask"

Can't see a question, can't answer now due to late dinner eh. Some might see this as buying yourself time to think up an answer or maybe even trying to avoid the question all together. I'll take these sincerely and at face value and wait.

ah that one, i missed it amongst the waffle to be honest......my bad

Herr Tubthumper said:
One has to ask why you are so keen to run rough-shod over the UK's tried and trusted democratic process and have a decision taken by an unelected person. This is after all what you have repeatedly accused the EU off and fought so hard to remove yourself from.

im not riding rough-shod
A simple vote by our parliament to accept or reject the outcome of the negotiations after both sides have reached an agreed future relationship (including after EU parliamentary process) is too simplistic, it gives further ammunition for prolonged delay and uncertainty which we all agree can only be bad.
The negotiations will no doubt take months if not years and all this time we will still be unable to set up our own trade deals, we need to crack on and leave.
So i would say let parliament have a vote on the negotiated package BUT with the full knowledge a rejection will not result in going back to the drawing board and endless negotiations but will end up with us as per Article 50 saying "ta very much but us lot cant agree on the terms so we will just be leaving anyway with no future relationship deals in place.......cheerio" and the relevant treaties will simply lapse and no longer be in place.

Lets not forget Herr T, before you get on too much of a democratic high horse that it was you yourself only a few months ago after the referendum that was advocating zero parliamentary scrutiny , and that we should simply hand in our notice and frack off.
You have clearly changed your position......a solid U Turn so to speak.......must be the Tory in you seeping out.

pastafarian · Jan 16, 2017

Soulman said:
You enjoy accusing posters of avoiding answering your questions/demands.

not as much as studio bloke likes to falsly accuse you of not answering questions.
its comical to watch him although at the same time its very cringe and also a little bit creepy how obsessed he is with your postings.

bit like clamp really, although i suspect that one will improve as he went to a french market this weekend and had his brain replaced with a fruity Brie.

mikeyjh · Jan 16, 2017

JC Footy Genius said:
The UK is "doing great" following its vote to leave the EU, US President-elect Donald Trump has said.

In his first UK interview, with former justice secretary Michael Gove for the Times, Mr Trump said he thought the UK was "so smart in getting out".

Mr Trump promised a quick trade deal between the US and the UK after he takes office in five days time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38631832

Spooky ... anyone who wants to know the winning lottery numbers for next week pm me.

I hope they do a deal very quickly of course, (assuming it's a good one and not just done to appease us) but I can't be alone and feeling the more that the likes of Boris Johnson and Donald Trump tell me something's going to happen the less I believe it. I need an an economist to create a graph where x = BJ, y = Trump and z = my confidence level falling off the cliff the more I hear from them.

pastafarian · Jan 16, 2017

hans kraay fan club said:
What the **** are you talking about, you utter cretin?

I called out 'the Daily Mail front page'. In what twisted, straw-clutching, ridiculous dark corner of your brain, can that possibly NOT include the ****ing HEADLINE.

What a prick.

I presume on the back of this you can confirm it wasnt you that changed the thread title to Brexit name calling

Soulman · Jan 16, 2017

hans kraay fan club said:
What the **** are you talking about, you utter cretin?

I called out 'the Daily Mail front page'. In what twisted, straw-clutching, ridiculous dark corner of your brain, can that possibly NOT include the ****ing HEADLINE.

What a prick.

Oh dear.

ManOfSussex · Jan 16, 2017

Lincoln Imp said:
Well let's hope the people of Botswana are gagging to buy our stuff. Meanwhile, I read somewhere that the Australian government has said that a trade deal with the EU is a much greater priority than one with the UK. You can kind of understand why.

Two Professors said:
I dare say the people of Botswana already do buy British equipment to mine their diamonds,although why you chose them out of the Commonwealth I cannot imagine.Perhaps you read somewhere that they consider a trade deal with the EU a greater priority,or perhaps they might be one of the many countries the EU has under embargo .How's the EU trade deal with the USA looking?Probably be signed the day Brandenburg airport opens-never.

Most of the mining 'equipment' is imported from South Africa, USA, Canada, Japan, Australia & China, to the best of my knowledge. Debswana even have their own electricity grid on some operations, I think at Orapa, importing that from Mozambique. Aside from Premier League football shirts (manufactured in Asia) and the odd jar of Branston Pickle and bottle of Lea & Perrins Worcestershire Sauce in some supermarkets and expensive bottles of Scotch in bottle stores, there's not a lot imported from The UK there in my opinion. I lived there for over 2 years.

Tiny population though, thus a tiny market. I would guess any future trade deal we may do there would have to be with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) rather than with the government of Botswana, but I could be wrong. Their president is Chertsey born to an English mother, so perhaps he'll be willing though.

Hamilton · Jan 16, 2017

GoldWithFalmer said:
Maybe in the latter stages of the thread,many of the original Remain in the early threads have accepted the result or in part,or stopped contributing altogether...leaving us with the dregs or was that the cream,i'd say the cream to be fair.

Where is [MENTION=25549]5ways[/MENTION] [MENTION=225]Hamilton[/MENTION] or [MENTION=17963]Hampster Gull[/MENTION] ALL Remain big guns-appologies if i have not mentioned others

I'm here, but not on this thread anymore.

I feel there's little point in contributing to the thread at the moment - the same old arguments are being regurgitated.

The deed is done and, as I think I have mentioned previously, we just need to get on with it. I still believe it was the wrong decision and that the ramifications of that decision will be long and drawn out. In addition, we haven't even started the process of leaving the EU yet, so events at present bear little relation to what will, or will not happen, as we leave the EU.

The important thing now is to try a build a strong economy and better society in the situation we now find ourselves.

Delighted to be referred to as a 'Big-Gun'.

alfredmizen · Jan 16, 2017

Hamilton said:
I'm here, but not on this thread anymore.

I feel there's little point in contributing to the thread at the moment - the same old arguments are being regurgitated.

The deed is done and, as I think I have mentioned previously, we just need to get on with it. I still believe it was the wrong decision and that the ramifications of that decision will be long and drawn out. In addition, we haven't even started the process of leaving the EU yet, so events at present bear little relation to what will, or will not happen, as we leave the EU.

The important thing now is to try a build a strong economy and better society in the situation we now find ourselves.

Delighted to be referred to as a 'Big-Gun'.

Good , mature post.

JC Footy Genius · Jan 16, 2017

studio150 said:
Very strange. I watched the coverage on Sky News which included video of the interview and when Gove mentions the UK being now at the front if the queue the issue was side stepped by Trump.

Also in respect of who to talk in Europe Germany was mentioned rather than the UK.

Two sides of the same coin?

Only time will tell but I don't think any USA/UK deal will be quickly achieved

Didn't seem to sidestep it in the Times article.

And would he, as our government hoped, move quickly to seal a new trade deal with the UK? “Absolutely, very quickly. I’m a big fan of the UK, we’re gonna work very hard to get it done quickly and done properly. Good for both sides. I will be meeting with [Theresa May] — in fact if you want you can see the letter, wherever the letter is, she just sent it. She’s requesting a meeting and we’ll have a meeting right after I get into the White House and . . . we’re gonna get something done very quickly.”

As for Germany.

Mr Trump’s view is that Europe is dominated by Germany, and Britain was wise to extract itself: “You look at the European Union and it’s Germany. Basically a vehicle for Germany. That’s why I thought the UK was so smart in getting out.”

JC Footy Genius · Jan 16, 2017

mikeyjh said:
I hope they do a deal very quickly of course, (assuming it's a good one and not just done to appease us) but I can't be alone and feeling the more that the likes of Boris Johnson and Donald Trump tell me something's going to happen the less I believe it. I need an an economist to create a graph where x = BJ, y = Trump and z = my confidence level falling off the cliff the more I hear from them.

Understandable scepticism but it looks like 'Obama care' is being dumped asap, they will be making a start on that wall, companies are being shamed/bullied into keeping/returning jobs to the US, thaw in relations with Russia looks likely etc. Trump certainly isn't your regular politician but it would make a refreshing change if he actually delivered on what is promised (good and bad).

Baldseagull · Jan 16, 2017

Soulman said:
How do you know on all three of your prophecies.

You quoted me, "It's easy to do a shitty deal quickly, it will take time to get the right deal. Time we may not have, so we may end up with the quick shitty deal."

I don't think I have prophecised anything in the post you quoted. Use of the word may indicates a possibility, and common sense will tell you it is easier to do a deal that favours the other party strongly.
I feel we may be keen to do a deal quickly as after leaving the EU, we will face increased tariffs in the US. If we are lucky, America may agree to move to the same levels as we currently use as an EU member for the short term, meaning that we would not be worse off in regards to trade with the US, but it will depend on what out of the EU actually looks like.

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