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Tough fixtures ahead



Marshy

Marshy

Well-known member
Jul 6, 2003
19,718
FRUIT OF THE BLOOM
All fixtures are tough, if you turn up on the day and play poorly you will get beaten.

If you turn up and play well chances are you will win.

I gave up looking at sets of fixtures a while ago., you just dont get easy fixtures in the championship
 






8ace

8ace

Banned
Jul 21, 2003
23,811
Brighton
Moshe Gariani said:
This has come up a few times and I don't understand it. Why would professional bookmakers take bets at the wrong price? If we are really 3/1 then why lay us at 9/2 and 5/1? Surely this same situation occurs in the majority of longterm betting markets. Why can't I retire early based on this bit of awareness?
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If they cut us to carpet they'd have to push out the price of the other teams like Boro. Then they'd be even more tempting for potential backers especially after their win tonight. So they'd take more bets on Boro and increase there already large liability.

Moshe Gariani said:
I understand a trackside one man band trying to "balance his book" for a single race or meeting but surely that isn't how the multinationals work...?
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If anything it's the opposite, the only balancing that's usually done is by way of the "betdaq shuffle". Most ring/rails layers try and make their money by getting one or more of the favourites beat.
 


Eeyore

Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
23,524
WATFORD zero said:
I looked at the Boro results and was ecstatic

then I looked at Charlton and became depressed

Such is the NSC way
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A splendid little bite of all life's emotions- in a few short seconds. When I look at NSC I feel as though my day has passed already.
 


Moshe Gariani

Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,070
8ace said:
If they cut us to carpet they'd have to push out the price of the other teams like Boro. Then they'd be even more tempting for potential backers especially after their win tonight. So they'd take more bets on Boro and increase there already large liability.
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So whenever you get a well backed early favourite doing well in one of these markets then there is massive value (e.g. 3/1 shots available at 5/1) backing one of the other contenders as the bookies give great bets away in order to balance their liability?

This seems unlikely to be true.
 




LlcoolJ

LlcoolJ

Mama said knock you out.
Oct 14, 2009
12,982
Sheffield
It's football. Value is very difficult to find. But [MENTION=588]8ace[/MENTION] is correct.
 


8ace

8ace

Banned
Jul 21, 2003
23,811
Brighton
Moshe Gariani said:
So whenever you get a well backed early favourite doing well in one of these markets then there is massive value (e.g. 3/1 shots available at 5/1) backing one of the other contenders as the bookies give great bets away in order to balance their liability?

This seems unlikely to be true.
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There is always VALUE to be had, the trouble is finding it. I'll give you a two examples:

1. England are always too short to win the World Cup, even so the bookmakers would lose millions if they did win it. So there is no point in chalking up a true price of 20/1 when you've got a queue of patriotic mugs happy to lump on at 10/1.
2. AP McCoy is probably the best jump jockey there has ever been - I think he won about 30% of all the races he rode. But if you had a pound on every ride you'd end be well out of pocket. Punters knew he was good, the bookies knew punters would back what he was riding - so they shortened the price up enough to negate that edge.

I recommend reading the Alan Potts book - it will explain it better than me.
 


8ace

8ace

Banned
Jul 21, 2003
23,811
Brighton
LlcoolJ said:
It's football. Value is very difficult to find. But [MENTION=588]8ace[/MENTION] is correct.
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It is hard to find, but if you do see it then is the time to bet like a man. I think we are still value this season so I have pressed up accordingly.
 




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