[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

dazzer6666 · Dec 6, 2016

supaseagull said:
I've not seen anything at all to suggest that. Gets a little warmer this next week but nothing above average for the time of the year and then back to the colder conditions from around 17th

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Really ? BBC and ITV weather on the news this morning both suggesting 14/15 degrees possible in the next few days.......WAY above average

smeg · Dec 6, 2016

Bozza said:
With respect to the good Uncle, it doesn't strike me that he actually forecasts anything, other than saying "this is what it's usually like, so it will be again". And that approach is likely to have a high success rate of course.

There's absolutely no fun in that though, is there? This thread would be very short if that's all everyone said each and every Winter.

On the other hand our esteemed colleague [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] and others take time to look at weather models and interpret them for us. I couldn't interpret a weather model any more than I can speak Cantonese, so it's interesting and fun.

HaHa, yeah true, I'm not disputing he takes way some of the fun but he balances hope and expectation with the inevitable, which is a SW & wet and windy. Don't get me wrong, I'm always hoping for a blast from the arctic and check this thread religiously.

Giraffe · Dec 6, 2016

Bozza said:
With respect to the good Uncle, it doesn't strike me that he actually forecasts anything, other than saying "this is what it's usually like, so it will be again". And that approach is likely to have a high success rate of course.

There's absolutely no fun in that though, is there? This thread would be very short if that's all everyone said each and every Winter.

On the other hand our esteemed colleague [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] and others take time to look at weather models and interpret them for us. I couldn't interpret a weather model any more than I can speak Cantonese, so it's interesting and fun.

That said he does add a certain something to this thread. Even a mild acknowledgement of some cold weather from him gets me excited given his normal "it will never happen" stance. I look at him as the Craig Revel Horwood of the judging panel. If he pulls out a 10 it really means something. Papa is clearly Len, knowledge mixed with positivity.

Any suggestions for Darcy or Bruno (the dancer not the footballing legend)?

Uncle Spielberg · Dec 6, 2016

Giraffe said:
That said he does add a certain something to this thread. Even a mild acknowledgement of some cold weather from him gets me excited given his normal "it will never happen" stance. I look at him as the Craig Revel Horwood of the judging panel. If he pulls out a 10 it really means something. Papa is clearly Len, knowledge mixed with positivity.

Any suggestions for Darcy or Bruno (the dancer not the footballing legend)?

FAB U LOUS Darling !

Uncle Spielberg · Dec 6, 2016

What I do know is that a strong SW flow ALWAYS beats the weakling Easterlies who hardly ever turn up for the fight in the first place. It is like Mike Tyson V Alan Carr. When we get the SW's going like we are this week, they will NEVER be budged like last year when we had constant S and SW winds from late october until mid march. The signs now are not good for snow, not good at all

Yoda · Dec 6, 2016

The GFS 06z still has the High coming back after the next week but its tantalizing us by being too close and southerly to bring in the proper chill on the winds.

Yoda · Dec 6, 2016

Uncle Spielberg said:
What I do know is that a strong SW flow ALWAYS beats the weakling Easterlies who hardly ever turn up for the fight in the first place. It is like Mike Tyson V Alan Carr. When we get the SW's going like we are this week, they will NEVER be budged like last year when we had constant S and SW winds from late october until mid march. The signs now are not good for snow, not good at all

I would normally tend to agree, but the Jet Stream is nowhere near as strong and has much more of a meandering look to it over the Atlantic and Europe. It only appears to be strong over the Atlantic coast of America.

If it were to strengthen and straighten I would then start to favour your view.

larus · Dec 6, 2016

Uncle Spielberg said:
What I do know is that a strong SW flow ALWAYS beats the weakling Easterlies who hardly ever turn up for the fight in the first place. It is like Mike Tyson V Alan Carr. When we get the SW's going like we are this week, they will NEVER be budged like last year when we had constant S and SW winds from late october until mid march. The signs now are not good for snow, not good at all

With respect, I read some stuff on the NetWeather forums and there are some really knowledgeable posters on there, who explain a lot of stuff (a lot I don't get still), and they also get PROFESSIONAL: guys from the Met Office making posts. Even the Met Office don't know what is going to happen as the current set-up is all over the place.

A week or so ago, the models were leaning heavily towards major blocking patterns to kick in mid-month, then over a couple of days this change. Even the Met Office guys felt a possible very cold event was in the offing. When I last read stuff last night, the view was that there is nothing still certain beyond days 6-8, yet you in your infinite wisdom can predict that winter is over.

Maybe an explanation of what you have considered would clarify.
QBO
ENSO
AO
AMO
Polar Vortex
Jet Stream
Siberian Snow Cover
Arctic Ice Extent

Or is is a peek from out of the window and a finger in the air? Yep, it's a SW wind and warmed up a few degrees so that means that winter is over on the 6th December.

Uncle Spielberg · Dec 6, 2016

larus said:
With respect, I read some stuff on the NetWeather forums and there are some really knowledgeable posters on there, who explain a lot of stuff (a lot I don't get still), and they also get PROFESSIONAL: guys from the Met Office making posts. Even the Met Office don't know what is going to happen as the current set-up is all over the place.

A week or so ago, the models were leaning heavily towards major blocking patterns to kick in mid-month, then over a couple of days this change. Even the Met Office guys felt a possible very cold event was in the offing. When I last read stuff last night, the view was that there is nothing still certain beyond days 6-8, yet you in your infinite wisdom can predict that winter is over.

Maybe an explanation of what you have considered would clarify.
QBO
ENSO
AO
AMO
Polar Vortex
Jet Stream
Siberian Snow Cover
Arctic Ice Extent

Or is is a peek from out of the window and a finger in the air? Yep, it's a SW wind and warmed up a few degrees so that means that winter is over on the 6th December.

The game is up. The dye is cast

larus · Dec 6, 2016

Uncle Spielberg said:
The game is up. The dye is cast

I think most can draw their own conclusions regarding the scientific analysis in your reply.

Check the odds for a White Christmas

Green Cross Code Man · Dec 6, 2016

jevs said:
But Uncle Spielberg said it's going to be wet.

You know U.S and the Daily Express are the only forecasts worth listening to!!!

To be fair, here's the express in late September warning of heavy snow in early to mid November onwards.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weath...ther-forecast-cold-winter-2016-Britain-freeze

Uncle Spielberg · Dec 6, 2016

17C 63F tomorrow

Papa Lazarou · Dec 6, 2016

Uncle Spielberg said:
17C 63F tomorrow

Where's that for? looks like 14C for Worthing.

Uncle Spielberg · Dec 6, 2016

Papa Lazarou said:
Where's that for? looks like 14C for Worthing.

Somewhere in the UK, should be close to 60F down here for the next week, maybe longer

Papa Lazarou · Dec 6, 2016

Uncle Spielberg said:
Somewhere in the UK, should be close to 60F down here for the next week, maybe longer

Papa Lazarou · Dec 6, 2016

It's still on the way out, but the 12Z GFS ensemble is showing some interesting developments for cold lovers. More when it's been fully published.

Green Cross Code Man · Dec 6, 2016

Papa Lazarou said:
It's still on the way out, but the 12Z GFS ensemble is showing some interesting developments for cold lovers. More when it's been fully published.

But then the 18z will probably go and ruin it! [emoji22]

Yoda · Dec 6, 2016

Papa Lazarou said:
It's still on the way out, but the 12Z GFS ensemble is showing some interesting developments for cold lovers. More when it's been fully published.

Still has the High too central to the UK though on the operational run. Waiting for Netweather to update their ensembles page now.

Papa Lazarou · Dec 6, 2016

Yoda said:
Still has the High too central to the UK though on the operational run. Waiting for Netweather to update their ensembles page now.

I find Meteociel is quicker. Anyway - the early promise yields nothing of real interest, apart from Perturbation 3 (dark green)

Uncle Spielberg · Dec 7, 2016

The only interesting thing about our winter's now is whether we can beat previous record high temperatures. Last December many records were smashed with night min's of 15C 59F and day Maximum's of 17C 63F, today more records may be broken in Northern Ireland 16C 61F and Scotland 17C 63F. The forecasts are showing very mild and SW for the next week at least

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