General Election 2017

mejonaNO12 aka riskit · May 23, 2017

deletebeepbeepbeep said:
Surely the election should be cancelled or deferred.

This isn't meant to come across as argumentative as but I'd be curious why you'd think that?

Personally, cancelling an example of our democracy, because of the actions of one **** would be a huge sign that we are willing to be disrupted by these horrific people.

If there's one thing all the parties will agree on it's their shared condemnation of these acts.

bWize · May 23, 2017

hans kraay fan club said:
It will save May's arse, I'd expect. Will rattle some people (very understandably), and scared people will generally vote for the perceived safer pair of hands.

I really don't see how last nights event is really related to party politics, but I suppose some might see it that way. If people are scared then I'm not sure why they would perceive voting for Theresa May as voting for the safer pair hands. The event last night happened under the same safer pair of hands.

JC Footy Genius · May 23, 2017

hans kraay fan club said:
It will save May's arse, I'd expect. Will rattle some people (very understandably), and scared people will generally vote for the perceived safer pair of hands.

I think her arse would still have managed to win but I agree the recent unsightly wobbliness will probably be less significant now. Especially considering the other pair of hands has some 'controversial ' past links with terrorists.

WonderingSoton · May 23, 2017

It's quite right to suspend the campaign for a day or two. Firstly out of respect of course, but also more practically to allow the government to do what they need in supporting the police and security authorities.

However moving the election back or whatever will just achieve exactly what these *******s want, in disrupting our western democratic free lives. Our democracy and freedom to choose our leaders must continue unaffected.

What I would like to see, is May/Corbyn/Faron etc, maybe Sturgeon also, come together physically on the same platform and make an apolitical statement together to show some unity. Then resume campaigning a little time after that.

deletebeepbeepbeep · May 23, 2017

How much campaigning is now realistically going to happen in two weeks? The andrew neil interviews have just been cancelled, not that those on their own are a big deal. It just seems that now we are going to be running in without much further debate during what is going to be a very difficult time for particularly the north of England.

seagulls4ever · May 25, 2017

Further narrowing of the lead according to a new TNS poll:

CON: 42% (-5)
LAB: 34% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)

There's a YouGov poll due out later tonight.

Election campaigning due to resume tomorrow.

seagulls4ever · May 25, 2017

Oh my word. YouGov poll:

CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

(via @YouGov / 24 - 25 May)

Ernest · May 25, 2017

seagulls4ever said:
Oh my word. YouGov poll:

CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

(via @YouGov / 24 - 25 May)

Why hasn't [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION] posted this ? He's probably fainted with shock

nicko31 · May 25, 2017

seagulls4ever said:
Further narrowing of the lead according to a new TNS poll:

CON: 42% (-5)
LAB: 34% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)

There's a YouGov poll due out later tonight.

Election campaigning due to resume tomorrow.

So JC is polling better than Milliband did in 2015.

Bozza · May 25, 2017

Ernest said:
Why hasn't [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION] posted this ? He's probably fainted with shock

I imagine you are in more shock, what with Corbyn being a man you stated as having no authority, being unable to lead and having cost lives. You'll still vote for him though. #AnyPigWithARedRosette

Weststander · May 25, 2017

seagulls4ever said:
Further narrowing of the lead according to a new TNS poll:

CON: 42% (-5)
LAB: 34% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)

There's a YouGov poll due out later tonight.

Election campaigning due to resume tomorrow.

On 30 April you gave details of a poll showing that the Tories were only on ... 42%.

The spin to keep giving a feeling of polls momentum for Momentum.

Best not to take the polls too seriously. These days it's always the case that they underestimate the middle and right vote share, and the Independent has just published a very salient article:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...general-election-peter-hitchens-a7755286.html

I await your next poll post, that the Tories have collapsed even further to ........ 42%.

The Wookiee · May 25, 2017

The deal breaker is: which party is going to be the first to speak out against the war that is currently raged against us ? Stop pussy footing about and one of you make a stand and do something about it !!

Weststander · May 25, 2017

The Wookiee said:
The deal breaker is: which party is going to be the first to speak out against the war that is currently raged against us ? Stop pussy footing about and one of you make a stand and do something about it !!

Other than UKIP of course.

nicko31 · May 25, 2017

Weststander said:
On 30 April you gave details of a poll showing that the Tories were only on ... 42%.

The spin is to keep giving a feeling of polls momentum for Momentum.

Best not to take the polls too seriously. These days it's always the case that they underestimate the middle and right vote share, and the Independent has just published a very salient article:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...general-election-peter-hitchens-a7755286.html

I await your next poll post, that the Tories have collapsed even further to ........ 42%.

Don't want him JC to win, the key in this election is to vote tactically to keep the Tories in check and keep their majority to a minimum. This election is like no other, tactical damage limitation voting as follows...

Brighton Kemptown - Vote Labour
Brighton Pavillon - Vote Green
Hove - Vote Labour
East Worthing and Shoreham - Vote Labour
Worthing - Vote Labour
Lewes - Vote Lib Dem
Littlehampton & Bognor - Vote Lib Dem
Eastbourne - Vote Lib Dem

seagulls4ever · May 25, 2017

Weststander said:
On 30 April you gave details of a poll showing that the Tories were only on ... 42%.

The spin to keep giving a feeling of polls momentum for Momentum.

Best not to take the polls too seriously. These days it's always the case that they underestimate the middle and right vote share, and the Independent has just published a very salient article:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...general-election-peter-hitchens-a7755286.html

I await your next poll post, that the Tories have collapsed even further to ........ 42%.

You are being very selective aren't you. I never made any post on 30th April. My only previous contribution regarding polls was on 5th May where I posted this:

Are we playing the game of selectively posting polls?

3rd May: Panelbase GB poll has topline figures of CON 47%(-2), LAB 30%(+3), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(-1).

Labour are of course still very far behind in the polls but the vast majority of recent polls have shown Labour gaining ground on the Conservatives, not the other way around.

The closest poll I have seen recently was on 30th April: an ORB poll in the Sunday Telegraph. Topline figures there are CON 42%, LAB 31%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%.

You conveniently ignored the poll that I posted showing CON at 47%. Even if we only consider the poll that I posted showing CON at 42%, are you suggesting consistent narrowing of the lead (across many different polls) since that time is insignificant?

There have also been many methodological changes in polls to account for how wrong the pollsters got it at the last GE, which boosts the Tory share in polls. Whether they get it right this time remains to be seen.

You also ignored the other poll I posted tonight:

CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

(via @YouGov / 24 - 25 May)

Here CON have 43% rather than 42%. BUT the lead over Labour is only 5%, by far the lowest yet. That's hung parliament territory. Not sure how that amounts to spin. The momentum is clearly and objectively with Labour at the moment.

Bozza · May 25, 2017

The Wookiee said:
The deal breaker is: which party is going to be the first to speak out against the war that is currently raged against us ? Stop pussy footing about and one of you make a stand and do something about it !!

Well, the Corbyn soundbite tonight is "The war on terror isn't working".

Sounds like he has a cunning plan that just might involve a pot of tea for 2, and some cucumber sandwiches.

nicko31 · May 25, 2017

Bozza said:
Well, the Corbyn soundbite tonight is "The war on terror isn't working".

Sounds like he has a cunning plan that might just involve a pot of tea for 2, and some cucumber sandwiches.

He's right, it hasn't been working since Bush started it in 2001. Telling it like it is

Weststander · May 25, 2017

Just to take a step back, from the minutiae of numbers, the 2015 polls in the four weeks were:

Labour 31 - 37%,
Tory 31 - 39%.

In the real poll of 30m voters, it was 31% Labour to Tory 38%.

seagulls4ever · May 25, 2017

Bozza said:
Well, the Corbyn soundbite tonight is "The war on terror isn't working".

Sounds like he has a cunning plan that just might involve a pot of tea for 2, and some cucumber sandwiches.

He's got a point hasn't he?

He will say that "many experts... have pointed to the connections between wars our government has supported or fought in other countries and terrorism here at home".
"That assessment in no way reduces the guilt of those who attack our children. Those terrorists will forever be reviled and held to account for their actions.

"But an informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response that will protect the security of our people that fights rather than fuels terrorism."
Mr Corbyn, who opposed UK military intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan, and voted against strikes in Libya and Syria, will say: "We must be brave enough to admit the 'war on terror' is simply not working.
"We need a smarter way to reduce the threat from countries that nurture terrorists and generate terrorism."
He will also pledge to "reverse the cuts to our emergency services and police" arguing that "we cannot be protected and cared for on the cheap".
'Austerity must stop'
Paying tribute to the "solidarity, humanity and compassion" of the people of Manchester, he will say those are the values that would guide a Labour government.
He will add: "No government can prevent every terrorist attack. If an individual is determined enough and callous enough, sometimes they will get through.
"But the responsibility of government is to minimise that chance - to ensure the police have the resources they need, that our foreign policy reduces rather than increases the threat to this country, and that at home we never surrender the freedoms we have won and that terrorists are so determined to take away."

A Labour government would fund more police and ensure the security services had sufficient resources "to keep track of those who wish to murder and maim", he will say.
"Austerity has to stop at the A&E ward and at the police station door," he will say.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40053427

Weststander · May 25, 2017

nicko31 said:
Don't want him JC to win, the key in this election is to vote tactically to keep the Tories in check and keep their majority to a minimum. This election is like no other, tactical damage limitation voting as follows...

Brighton Kemptown - Vote Labour
Brighton Pavillon - Vote Green
Hove - Vote Labour
East Worthing and Shoreham - Vote Labour
Worthing - Vote Labour
Lewes - Vote Lib Dem
Littlehampton & Bognor - Vote Lib Dem
Eastbourne - Vote Lib Dem

Brighton and Hove will return two Labour and one Green MP. The Kemp Town deal sealed that.

Lucas and Kyle have earned themselves a lot of publicity and I can imagine do a good job. Kirby isn't popular, other than with nimbies fighting all housing schemes in his patch.

The irony is that the hard left took over the B & H Labour Party, not disputed as even Labour Central Office have fought them, but the snap election didn't give them the chance to get rid of Kyle who they despise.

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