Mayfair Seagull
Member
Totally agree, but is it a huge gamble or just huge incompetence and arrogance? I'm starting to think the latter.
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What has the Board seen in Hyypia that we can't see
- Thread starter wadhurstseagull
- Start date
Totally agree, but is it a huge gamble or just huge incompetence and arrogance? I'm starting to think the latter.
BensGrandad
New member
I believe to keep his job he has to get 7 points from the next 3 games home to Millwall and Reading and away at Wolves. A loss against Millwall makes that impossible so could well be goodbye. What we dont know is what TB has promised for January in terms of strengthening of the squad.
Tony's clearly calculating the pot odds on this one.
Say relegation will cost us £10m, and sacking Sami will cost £4m - 40% of that.
If the probability of being relegated is greater than 40%, the 'right' move is to sack him as the "average" cost of keeping him exceeds the cost of firing him.
Alternatively, if our chance of survival (under Sami) is higher than 60%, keeping him is the 'right' option.
I suspect most of NSC would say the probability of us getting relegated with Sami in charge is a lot more than 40% - I reckon Tony disagrees...
Say relegation will cost us £10m, and sacking Sami will cost £4m - 40% of that.
If the probability of being relegated is greater than 40%, the 'right' move is to sack him as the "average" cost of keeping him exceeds the cost of firing him.
Alternatively, if our chance of survival (under Sami) is higher than 60%, keeping him is the 'right' option.
I suspect most of NSC would say the probability of us getting relegated with Sami in charge is a lot more than 40% - I reckon Tony disagrees...
S'hampton Seagull
Well-known member
Good post. I guess some of this depends on the business we are looking to do in January, if we sign some proven players you would need to factor that in as well.
nwgull
Well-known member
I would be astounded if SH is on a contract that would amount to 4m over the 2.5 years remaining on his contract. I'd guess at less than half of that figure.
You could well be right - I have no idea on the figure.
The same logic applies though - if the cost is £2m then the probabilities become 20% relegation / 80% survival, etc etc.
I think he would be due about £2 million if he were to be sacked, so may go by 'mutual agreement' for less than a million to keep another blot off his increasingly unimpressive managerial CV?
Surely leaving after 20 games - with us in the relegation zone - would itself be a blot on his CV? Certainly not clean enough to give up a million pounds for?
nwgull
Well-known member
This is why I don't think that it's the cost that is preventing them from pulling the trigger. It's probably more to do with there not being anybody else available right now that they believe could do any better. Why sack SH and then throw good money after bad on someone else?
If only Spanish Dave had said yes!
Yeah, perhaps not. I gather it just looks better than 'sacked', though prospective employers probably see through the old 'mutual agreement' line.
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as said previoulsy on this thread, I just cannot accept that the cost of sacking, mutual consent or whatever will cost us anywhere near 4 million quid. I play quite a bit of poker, but this is a huge risk. Relegation would cost us BHAFC millions well beyond my gambling capabilities...
Below TB's poker details. Doesnt say how much he staked to get that lot... Hope we dont get rivered on the last day of the season!
England All Time Money List
9th
All Time Money List Current Rank
229th
All Time Money List Best Rank
118th
Global Poker Index Ranking
12,075th
Popularity Ranking
223rd
Best Live Cash $964,296
Total Live Earnings $3,337,271
Not Andy Naylor
Well-known member
I'd suggest it's what the pre-Bamber board saw in Pat Saward, who struggled to pick up the pieces of Freddie Goodwin's near miss the season before, ended up with a team full of loan signings then delivered promotion in thrilling style the following season. (We'll gloss over what happened after that ...)
KZNSeagull
Well-known member
Your hints are clearly too subtle. If you are correct, most of this and many other speculative threads are totally redundant. But hey, that's the fun of NSC!
Tee Hee. At least we're now being turned down by a good manager. It was February 2009 that we were rejected by........................................JIM GANNON, on the grounds that we were too shit.
KZNSeagull
Well-known member
Indeed - his career has really taken off.
To even have informal talks with him is rather impressive. Assuming it was more than "Do you want to manage Brighton?" "Ha Ha Ha. No", of course.
sir albion
New member
You're like many forgetting our wage bill will half at least saving us £10 million minium
Anyway he should not be here anymore and his record is diabolical...Why keep him on has to be money or the board just want a puppet to take all the blame when we're relegated.
You're like many forgetting our wage bill will half at least saving us £10 million minium
Anyway he should not be here anymore and his record is diabolical...Why keep him on has to be money or the board just want a puppet to take all the blame when we're relegated.
Maybe, lets hope the players contracts contained relegation clauses!
sir albion
New member
Don't think we offer to many long contracts to be fair
