Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊

[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]



Notters

Well-known member
Oct 20, 2003
24,865
Guiseley
Yes they have had a lot of snow in hilly areas of central europe this week but we don't live there do we ? It is all rather boring really. Not mild as such, 7 c day , 2 c night but nothing on the horizon to suggest there is any likelihood of cold or snowy weather. A non event of a winter

We're dooooomed.
 


pearl

Well-known member
May 3, 2016
12,711
Behind My Eyes
It is looking more hopeful, but don't get too excited just yet, as there is a signal for possible cold Northerly or even North Westerly winds with milder incursions at times in a cyclonic flow. This will be good for Northern Britain but more marginal down here.

The upside is marginal can give MASSIVE snowfalls, if your on the right side of the divide.

I don't mind snow, but hate ice. Some nice fluffy snow that turns to slush and melts would be fine, but no ice please
 




Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
2,920
Uckfield
The BBC trashed any idea of cold from the sudden warming event, yesterday. They said it has been a non event. The one in lat feb this year here was a big fuss over nothing as well. Most of Sussex had 1 inch of now

Still banging that drum I see? Your particular coastal area missed out sure, but inland Sussex got several inches that caused problems on the roads.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,834
Worthing
Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Jan 2019 to Friday 25 Jan 2019:

Cloudy skies and a spell of rain will slowly edge southeastwards on Wednesday, clearing most places by the end of the day. Behind this it will turn clearer and colder from the north by Thursday, with scattered blustery showers, becoming wintry across northern areas. Winds will be strong with a risk of gales in the north at times. Thereafter, it looks set to remain mainly cold, unsettled and sometimes windy, with any milder spells tending to be brief and associated with longer spells of rain. The rain could turn to snow almost anywhere, but particularly across northern and central areas. especially later in this period. Some drier, brighter, quieter spells are likely, perhaps with snow showers, especially in the east. During such spells, frost could become widespread and severe.

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Jan 2019 to Saturday 9 Feb 2019:

During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather being established across all of the UK. This would bring a greater risk of snow, ice and widespread frost, particularly across northern parts of the country. However, there remains uncertainty over the extent of the cold weather and how long it will last, and it is still possible that some milder and wetter interludes will intersperse this generally cold period, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.go.../public/weather/forecast
 






Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,834
Worthing
Hi [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] - only a day later I know, but do you think very cold weather is likely for SE England from roughly Tues 22/1 onwards?

I've been tracking the snow likelihood for Brighton from the GFS ensemble. It's definitely possible.

Brighton Snow 3.PNG
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,834
Worthing
that's based upon this ensemble plot... over the days.

As it shows there is still a wide range of possible temperatures, as the setup is still unclear. We get the initial divergence 18th to 21st (black circle) and this continues markedly from the 22nd with some very cold options showing (blue). The snow % never get's above 50% for any day, but that's hardly a surprise with lots of outcomes still possible.

Ensemble Copy 3.png
 




Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Aug 25, 2011
63,371
Withdean area
that's based upon this ensemble plot... over the days.

As it shows there is still a wide range of possible temperatures, as the setup is still unclear. We get the initial divergence 18th to 21st (black circle) and this continues markedly from the 22nd with some very cold options showing (blue). The snow % never get's above 50% for any day, but that's hardly a surprise with lots of outcomes still possible.

View attachment 103736

Many thanks. If bitter cold/snow looks likely, please keep us informed.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,834
Worthing
Many thanks. If bitter cold/snow looks likely, please keep us informed.

If that thick yellow line occurred, that would be deep snow and temps below freezing day and night. Sadly (IMO) that's not the most likely outcome. The flip side that that run is the GFS Parallel run, which is effectively the New Operational run in waiting. It runs at the same (highest) resolution as the Op, but with some 'improvements'. So, hope springs eternal.
 


Cheshire Cat

The most curious thing..




Drpepper

Active member
Nov 23, 2011
403
Sussex
From what ive heard, wednesday this week its starting to get alot colder and from monday the 21st rural parts of sussex are going to struggle to get above freezing even during the day
 


martin tyler

Well-known member
Jan 25, 2013
5,826
I think Monday night into tuesday morning next week currently looks promising but would think it’s to early to be anywhere near certain where that weather front will actually end up. Seems still a wide range of possible temperatures from the charts as well.
 






vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
27,866
From what ive heard, wednesday this week its starting to get alot colder and from monday the 21st rural parts of sussex are going to struggle to get above freezing even during the day
Plenty of dry logs at Ferring Nurseries the other day, don't panic!
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,834
Worthing
No clear winner yet. Still a large range of temperatures available after the 21st.

temp range.png

Plus the Snow Row figures are still encouraging - and trending slightly higher.

Brighton Snow 4.PNG

However, there will be a point this week where the models will get a handle on this uncertainty, and thing will swing decisively one way or the other.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,834
Worthing
The tricky but is this period (21st to 22nd) where the low goes and ow much blocking gets established to the West and North West of the UK

tempresult_cxc0.gif
 






Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,779
Lancing
All the latest models are now showing no real cold this week or the much heralded next week, showing 6-7 c daytime max and night minimums around 0 c at the coldest. Metcheck is 1.5 c above normal for January and going up, after a mild november and december, it is in fact quite remarkable in that we have had no cold weather all winter, not even a brief cold snap pretty much anywhere in the uk, remarked on by the bbc weatherman today. They are now backtracking on any cold next week and an easterly looks very remote
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,834
Worthing
Still a chance - but the likelihood has fluctuated over the past few days

Brighton Snow 7.PNG
 



Paying the bills

Latest Discussions

Paying the bills

Paying the bills

Paying the bills

Albion and Premier League latest from Sky Sports


Top
Link Here