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[Politics] Brexit

If there was a second Brexit referendum how would you vote?


  • Total voters
    1,081


portslade seagull

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2003
17,588
portslade
The total gdp of the EU countries is about 15 trillion dollars. This means that the 39 billion is about 0.35% of total EU27. For one year. That is basically a rounding error in history. Do you really think the EU will be held to ransom over what is a pretty insignificant sum as a one off payment?

39 billion is obviously a hell of a lot of money to you and I, but to a economic super power like the EU it really isn’t. The sooner people realise that the better.

As a point of comparison it is like someone who earns 100k a year being held to ransom over 350 quid. Do you really think that would happen? Be serious with your answer.

It's not about the GDP though is it. This is the running costs of the EU and yes 39B is a lot of money in that sense. If it wasn't so important why are they looking to cut the running costs to alleviate losing it.
 


WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 10, 2003
25,675
Try telling Barnier and Juncker that. They don't think so, keeps Juncker in drink fo a few more yrs

It honestly is [MENTION=24865]Berty23[/MENTION] summed it up well

The total gdp of the EU countries is about 15 trillion dollars. This means that the 39 billion is about 0.35% of total EU27. For one year. That is basically a rounding error in history. Do you really think the EU will be held to ransom over what is a pretty insignificant sum as a one off payment?

39 billion is obviously a hell of a lot of money to you and I, but to a economic super power like the EU it really isn’t. The sooner people realise that the better.

As a point of comparison it is like someone who earns 100k a year being held to ransom over 350 quid. Do you really think that would happen? Be serious with your answer.

You wouldn't pay it if you didn't have to but it certainly isn't a deal breaker and probably won't have much effect on any trade negotiations :shrug:
 


Berty23

Well-known member
Jun 26, 2012
3,167
Does that figure include the Uk?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Not the source I had. The c2.6 trillion dollar uk not included.

In fact EU might be nudging closer 20 than 15 trillion. It is all quite rough. Hence 39 billion is a rounding error.

It doesn’t really change the point though does it?
 


portslade seagull

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2003
17,588
portslade
It honestly is [MENTION=24865]Berty23[/MENTION] summed it up well

The GDP could be 20 trillion but it doesn't matter one iota if none of the 27 are prepared to up their payments to Brussels. I think you'll find most have already said they won't.
A deal will be done to secure that pittance
 


portslade seagull

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2003
17,588
portslade
Not the source I had. The c2.6 trillion dollar uk not included.

In fact EU might be nudging closer 20 than 15 trillion. It is all quite rough. Hence 39 billion is a rounding error.

It doesn’t really change the point though does it?

What does GDP have to do with what payments are made to the EU. Nothing so how does it have any relevance
 




Baker lite

Banned
Mar 16, 2017
6,309
in my house
Not the source I had. The c2.6 trillion dollar uk not included.

In fact EU might be nudging closer 20 than 15 trillion. It is all quite rough. Hence 39 billion is a rounding error.

It doesn’t really change the point though does it?

Certainly doesn’t change the point,was just curious if it included the Uk figure.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 


WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 10, 2003
25,675
The GDP could be 20 trillion but it doesn't matter one iota if none of the 27 are prepared to up their payments to Brussels. I think you'll find most have already said they won't.
A deal will be done to secure that pittance

I think that may be another one that we'll have to disagree on
 


Berty23

Well-known member
Jun 26, 2012
3,167
It's not about the GDP though is it. This is the running costs of the EU and yes 39B is a lot of money in that sense. If it wasn't so important why are they looking to cut the running costs to alleviate losing it.

Of course they will do that. However, if worst came to worst then others can pay a tiny bit more. They still gain massively and if we leave with no deal then you can be sure no one will want to copy us once it unravels!

That money is The equivalent to about a third of our annual nhs budget. To think that thebEU can’t take this one of hit belongs in a dreamland.
 




Berty23

Well-known member
Jun 26, 2012
3,167
What does GDP have to do with what payments are made to the EU. Nothing so how does it have any relevance

It simply shows the power of the countries involved. As per my other post...if we leave with no deal then 90% of our exports previously linked to eu trade deals will be hit with WTO. Suddenly all the other countries will realise what is dawning on people here. The membership is a small price to pay to be part of such a powerful economic bloc.

The EU is so powerful that Japan won’t be able to have a trade deal with us without clearing with the EU.
 


portslade seagull

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2003
17,588
portslade
Of course they will do that. However, if worst came to worst then others can pay a tiny bit more. They still gain massively and if we leave with no deal then you can be sure no one will want to copy us once it unravels!

That money is The equivalent to about a third of our annual nhs budget. To think that thebEU can’t take this one of hit belongs in a dreamland.

I suppose we will see when a deal is done as it will be. All this rhetoric about a No deal is just a smoke screen.
 






Thunder Bolt

Ordinary Supporter
But you (or remainers) think that Brexit voters voted leaves because they are thick or racist. Remainers can’t seem to understand that many Brexit voters just don’t like their laws to be dictated by unelected technocrats, who have an ultimate goal of a country called Europe with no national identity.

You do realise the laws in this country are passed by unelected people in Parliament? You have no say in the leader of the Tories, not the cabinet ministers, the civil service or the House of Lords. All of which help pass laws here.
The EU democracy is more accountable than the Houses of Parliament.
 


Berty23

Well-known member
Jun 26, 2012
3,167
I suppose we will see when a deal is done as it will be. All this rhetoric about a No deal is just a smoke screen.

The only way a deal will be done is if we do what we are told. We will end up following rules we have no say over and the red lines will vanish. Is that what you voted for? We have so litttle leverage here. Are the EU stockpiling food and drugs? Are EU companies setting up a base in the UK in case of no deal? Of course not. Anyone who still thinks they need us more is deluded.
 


WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 10, 2003
25,675
I suppose we will see when a deal is done as it will be. All this rhetoric about a No deal is just a smoke screen.

I think that anyone with any sense is hoping no deal proves to be just that and we get a deal with the EU. However, they are very much in the driving seat and I think TM's deal will have to 'soften' a fair bit further before we get a deal. If it's then a Norway type deal, you have to ask yourself whether it was worth it ?

I really don't think 39Billion is going to have much effect either way.
 






Thunder Bolt

Ordinary Supporter
I suppose we will see when a deal is done as it will be. All this rhetoric about a No deal is just a smoke screen.

Do you honestly think Theresa May can get the Tories to agree a deal to put to the EU in the next eleven weeks?
Parliament is still on holiday & then you've got the party conferences to come.
 


WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 10, 2003
25,675
Do you honestly think Theresa May can get the Tories to agree a deal to put to the EU in the next eleven weeks?
Parliament is still on holiday & then you've got the party conferences to come.

As unlikely as that seems, it's either going to be that or some sort of vote (Leadership, GE or Referendum2) as I really do not think 'no deal' is achievable in any form and Britain committing economic suicide would not be good for the EU.

If we pay enough, there could be some sort of extension to membership, full payments, no rebates, no influence, while we sort out what is going to happen ?
 


GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
46,473
Gloucester
You do realise the laws in this country are passed by unelected people in Parliament?
No they're not. They're passed by elected MPs in the House of Commons. Granted they often nod through legislation promulgated by civil servants via their various minsters, and act in accordance with the dictats of the whips, but they still have the final say.
The Lords (unelected) can and do hinder and delay things a bit, but by law they cannot stop legislation. The Commons can over-rule them. Just as well, with all the self-satisfied old buffers wanting to remain in the EU gravy train and sod the people.
 




GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
46,473
Gloucester
As unlikely as that seems, it's either going to be that or some sort of vote (Leadership, GE or Referendum2) as I really do not think 'no deal' is achievable in any form and Britain committing economic suicide would not be good for the EU
You don't have to 'achieve' a No Deal; if there is no agreement then there will inevitably be no deal. Rather obvious to everyone who isn't desperately clinging to some sort of fantasy that somehow Brexit will go away.

If we pay enough, there could be some sort of extension to membership, full payments, no rebates, no influence, while we sort out what is going to happen?
God forbid.


Or have you got a few billions to pay if you think it's such a good idea to go on subsidising the EU? If so, you're welcome to cough up. I won't, not willingly anyway.
 


WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 10, 2003
25,675
You don't have to 'achieve' a No Deal; if there is no agreement then there will inevitably be no deal. Rather obvious to everyone who isn't desperately clinging to some sort of fantasy that somehow Brexit will go away.

I'm sure you are as sick of reading it as I am of posting in but

Ok, specifically for a 'no deal' by 29th March 2019 we have to

Negotiate our WTO submission with any member who raises issues in the next 90 days or default to the highest level of Tariff.
We have to build a border and customs posts in Northern Ireland
We need to build the lorry parks at Dover and the other ports
We need to design, test and build the IT systems to run the newly negotitiated WTO rules and Tariffs
We we will need to recruit and train all customs and administrative staff to run the WTO processes and systems

Now if you could have some sort of fantasy where these would 'go away' it would make Brexit a whole lot easier :bigwave:
 



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