[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

Papa Lazarou · Jan 28, 2015

Notters said:
That site seems to suggest that the temperature will remain below 0oC for a week, which clearly isn't the case... Or am I looking at it wrong?

That's the 850hpa temp - so at a fixed pressure level in the atmosphere. With low pressure, that's closer to the ground than otherwise. It's a way of taking diurnal variations out of measuring the true temperature of an airmass.

On the chart, there's a yellow bar - click on the Temp 2M to get the true surface temperature.

BigGully · Jan 28, 2015

Flex Your Head said:
You ignored my post last time , so I'll use the same wording:

For the average punter (read: not a weather nerd), it will be bitterly cold. They won't be bothered about what the actual temperature is, it will feel bloody cold over the next few days.

This is from the BBC for tomorrow Cold and breezy at times bringing a marked wind-chill.
The feel-like temperature for SE London tomorrow varies between a high of minus 2 and a low of minus 4.

That is bitterly cold and more appropriate than saying it will be 5 deg C if it doesn't feel anything like it. If you want to stride around in your T-shirt and jeans, go for it.

You my friend are re-writing meteorology, you can call it what you like but those interpreting and then offering a forecast need to try and be consistent and have some appropriate definitions, calling something bitterly cold because you find it so offers absolutely nothing.

For the sake of argument couldnt you just accept that 5C is bitterly cold for you, but not so for average historical records and the population at large.

There is also something called a Beaufort Scale for wind, with it comes some interpretation above the actual mean wind speed of how this might be determined, things like 'Gentle Breeze' for force 3 and force 7 is a 'Near Gale' and so on.

It really is no good you telling me that 'force 5 is bloody gale in my book' when it really isnt .........

Yoda · Jan 28, 2015

Papa Lazarou said:
(For some reason I can't post the chart at the moment).

Worthing:
View attachment 62379

Edit again as seems I'm having an issue to:

0.2 degrees North and it has figures of 95% & 100% in the next 36 hours

Yoda · Jan 28, 2015

[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION]

What do you make of the Atlantic low sliding down the High to the South West of the UK and into the Channel next week? Potential for snow on the Northern edge? The last few GFS models have had it there now.

Withdean11 · Jan 28, 2015

Yoda said:
Worthing:
View attachment 62379

Edit again as seems I'm having an issue to:

0.2 degrees North and it has figures of 95% & 100% in the next 36 hours

Sorry, whats 95% / 100%?

Chance of snow!?

Yoda · Jan 28, 2015

Withdean11 said:
Sorry, whats 95% / 100%?

Chance of snow!?

Yes, sorry, chance of snow for those percentages.

Withdean11 · Jan 28, 2015

Yoda said:
Yes, sorry, chance of snow for those percentages.

Blimey, so we should be looking at snow tomorrow then!

Gary Leeds · Jan 28, 2015

coming down quiet heavy in leeds now, wonder what Blackpool is like for the next couple of days?

HawkTheSeagull · Jan 28, 2015

The ever reliable Metcheck is predicting a 90% chance of snow tomorrow - with a 75% chance on Friday for Eastbourne.

So I assume its near certain we will see snow of sorts across Sussex ? And at most, just a dusting like last week ?

Ludensian Gull · Jan 28, 2015

Coming down steadily in Lincs

carteater · Jan 28, 2015

what's the chance of seeing a few flurries in bn6 tonight

casbom · Jan 28, 2015

Anything is possible in this set up, so expect nothing and you might just be surprised! That goes for the next several days as well.

There's no definite signal for sustained snowfall "at this time" - however these tend to crop up very quickly!

Papa Lazarou · Jan 28, 2015

Yoda said:
[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION]

What do you make of the Atlantic low sliding down the High to the South West of the UK and into the Channel next week? Potential for snow on the Northern edge? The last few GFS models have had it there now.

I
That's definitely a development that has loads of potential. The right path and we could get a decent snowfall. Too far West and it misses us, to far East and we get milder air pulled in, and rain.

Papa Lazarou · Jan 28, 2015

casbom said:
Anything is possible in this set up, so expect nothing and you might just be surprised! That goes for the next several days as well.

There's no definite signal for sustained snowfall "at this time" - however these tend to crop up very quickly!

Yep. What he said. Don't expect much though, unless we get little areas of enhanced instability.

vegster · Jan 28, 2015

I'm waiting for Uncle Speilberg's opinion before I go out buying candles,Sugar and Flour.

Flex Your Head · Jan 28, 2015

BigGully said:
You my friend are re-writing meteorology, you can call it what you like but those interpreting and then offering a forecast need to try and be consistent and have some appropriate definitions, calling something bitterly cold because you find it so offers absolutely nothing.

For the sake of argument couldnt you just accept that 5C is bitterly cold for you, but not so for average historical records and the population at large.

There is also something called a Beaufort Scale for wind, with it comes some interpretation above the actual mean wind speed of how this might be determined, things like 'Gentle Breeze' for force 3 and force 7 is a 'Near Gale' and so on.

It really is no good you telling me that 'force 5 is bloody gale in my book' when it really isnt .........

The temperature will peak at 5 degrees c. It will feel bitterly cold.

I assume that the BBC weather folk have decided that in an effort to make themselves understood by the majority of the population, saying that it will be bitterly cold, when that is how it will feel, is more realistic (and likely to lead to fewer complaints) than saying it will be chilly.

Similarly, they will describe conditions as blustery or wild and windy rather than referring to the Beaufort scale.
It's scientifically inaccurate (and doubtless infuriating to weather nerds and amateur meteorologists), but easily understandable for the population at large.

Giraffe · Jan 28, 2015

Just give us some SNOW!!!!

carteater · Jan 28, 2015

Giraffe said:
Just give us some SNOW!!!!

this.

larus · Jan 28, 2015

I'm in Derbyshire for work, and there's been some snow showers since about 4:00 today.

ive been reading the forums on netweather, and the models are constantly adjusting between each run and look like extending this cold spell into February. Hark back to the posts of some people writing THE WHOLE WINTER OFF a few weeks back, it makes me realise that no-one can predict the weather, and accurate forecasting beyond a few days is damned nigh impossible in our part of the world, with the various impacts to our weather. But some people never learn eh!!!

albion1972 · Jan 28, 2015

I think Uncle S hates snow as it brings back painfull memories of his lover Desert Orchid

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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

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