[Politics] Brexit

nwgull · Jul 30, 2018

seagulls4ever said:
I also questioned your 'millions of new voters' (3m) statement as well. My basic calculation gives me around 1.4m, 64% (high end estimate) of which is 900k (although that would obviously increase by the time another referendum came around). If turnout was that high, then of course there's less scope to increase turnout in that population as well (an argument which a lot of people make, although I could see turnout being much higher anyway).

Almost three million people registered online to vote in between the GE being announced last April and deadline to be able to vote in it about 1 month later alone. If you include another few hundred thousand that will have turned 18 and registered to vote in the last 14 months, then 3m is quite a conservative estimate.

sir albion · Jul 30, 2018

nicko31 said:
If we do crash out, it won't just be the Tory party that will be the same again, it will be the country. I cannot see the United Kingdom surviving this, huge issue with the Irish border and it will tip the balance for the Scots to go it alone.

Brexit is a dodgy opinion poll that went wrong

So you just keep giving the EU what they want?
You think it's fine for an organisation in Brussels to dictate what should and shouldn't be done with borders ?

This is why I really dislike the EU as it's a glorified agency that collects the dosh and distributes some and over the decades has been given way to much power and control.
I don't have a problem with controlled immigration and much more but it's always their way or the highway and you can't negotiate anything with them.

GT49er · Jul 30, 2018

Icy Gull said:
I will go with whatever is decided, I voted remain but accepted the result. It’s the most painful “On Our Way” though and I still maintain that May has been hit with the shittiest stick of any British PM other than maybe Winston Churchill. It irritates the **** out of me that the politicians that were so keen on getting us out and had the most influence in getting people to vote Leave have had no influential and constructive part in actually taking us out

I quite agree with you about May has indeed been handed the shittiest stick since Winny (although Winny triumphed in the end, didn't he?) - but I find it perverse that you cannot accept that the blame for our difficulties lies fair and square with the majority of politicians at Westminster (the remain supporters) who have spent the last two years, by fair means and foul, to hamper and hinder Mrs. May and the Brexit process every step of the way.
Leave voting politicians are mostly on the outside looking in as far as the negotiations are concerned, so can hardly be blamed for the difficulties. Perhaps they could do a better job (and maybe they'd like to). They certainly could (and so probably could TM) if the Westminster remainers took the same reasonable stance as you and - albeit reluctantly - accepted the referendum result and stopped endlessly trying to hamstring our negotiations.

Swillis · Jul 30, 2018

hans kraay fan club said:
And once we're out, with no deal, are hit by trade tariffs by every major market, the economy tanks, those that keep their jobs see their working rights eroded by a government desperately trying to keep labour costs low, in order to do any trade at all, the NHS is on its knees, at the mercy of US speculators, and they can't even afford to enjoy a holiday (stood in the massive queues at European airports) because the value of the pound has crashed...?

Will they have a right to be angry then, when they discover they've been sold a lie?

What you fail to realise is the NHS is on its knees now. Living where we live a trip to A and E is a nightmare, the vast majority in there are immigrants who cannot get a GP appoinyment for a variety of reasons. Schools, all we hear is that immigrant children are thriving and ours are not, maybe there's a link there or I suppose we have all become bad parents. Jobs have gone downhill fast as they are now competing with millions of cheap labour. House prices artificially high and rents likewise, inflated by the need for immigrants to have accommodation and foreign money. Now I realise this maybe a very simplistic view but if you could convince me otherwise I would be open to hearing it.
Now I realise if you live in a nice area and have a good job then why would you want to change the status quo, maybe living in Sussex/Hampshire you do not see this but it's very real and happening.
Now people affected by this and those not as affected but wanting to change this were told we have the right to vote, which we did. But now the goalposts keep moving.
I personally feel that those that voted Brexit and may get sold out will become very angry and good luck when that happens.

Two Professors · Jul 30, 2018

Cadiz Seagull said:
I'm coming round to the view that we should have a two question second referendum.
First question, should we stay or leave?
If the answer is stay then that's it, second question is irrelevant.
If leave, then the second question should be walk away with no deal or accept whatever the best deal the gonvernment can get?
But this referendum should not be now, it should be when the Government deide it has got the best deal it's going to get.

All in all, a right buggers muddle!

Perhaps we could have a referendum on having a referendum,but perhaps before that we could have a referendum of what percentage vote would be okay for a win.Perhaps we should also have a referendum on voting for embryos,and leaving votes in wills.Or perhaps we should just Leave.

clapham_gull · Jul 30, 2018

I'm surprised that one of the main television hasn't organised a one off "how would you vote now" events, now that facts are better known.

(I know that's abhorrent to many who believe you are only allowed to vote once)

Sent from my BLA-L09 using Tapatalk

Cadiz Seagull · Jul 30, 2018

Maybe we should have a referendum saying do you want a second referendum, yes or no?

sir albion · Jul 30, 2018

hans kraay fan club said:
Do you have any reasons how it will pay off, or are we to just rely on good old British spirit and blind luck?

You will see that there's a big world out there and you don't have to be in the EU to progress as a nation.We are not a small fish and would flourish outside.
You're just taking the easy option like many and you don't have the ambition to see what's possible outside !
You will talk down Britain but many will because they're weak and don't see anything past the EU.

hans kraay fan club · Jul 30, 2018

Swillis said:
What you fail to realise is the NHS is on its knees now. Living where we live a trip to A and E is a nightmare, the vast majority in there are immigrants who cannot get a GP appoinyment for a variety of reasons. Schools, all we hear is that immigrant children are thriving and ours are not, maybe there's a link there or I suppose we have all become bad parents. Jobs have gone downhill fast as they are now competing with millions of cheap labour. House prices artificially high and rents likewise, inflated by the need for immigrants to have accommodation and foreign money. Now I realise this maybe a very simplistic view but if you could convince me otherwise I would be open to hearing it.
Now I realise if you live in a nice area and have a good job then why would you want to change the status quo, maybe living in Sussex/Hampshire you do not see this but it's very real and happening.
Now people affected by this and those not as affected but wanting to change this were told we have the right to vote, which we did. But now the goalposts keep moving.
I personally feel that those that voted Brexit and may get sold out will become very angry and good luck when that happens.

All these 'immigrants that are filling up your housing and local schools and A&E - all EU immigrants are they?

I ask, of course, because the economy needs immigration. Once we stop folk from the EU coming, they'll be replaced with increased commonwealth immigration. India has already made clear that any trade deal will involve concessions to make it easier for their nationals to travel here.

hans kraay fan club · Jul 30, 2018

sir albion said:
You will see that there's a big world out there and you don't have to be in the EU to progress as a nation.We are not a small fish and would flourish outside.
You're just taking the easy option like many and you don't have the ambition to see what's possible outside !
You will talk down Britain but many will because they're weak and don't see anything past the EU.

Ah. Unicorns.

Got it :thumbsup:

Tom Bombadil · Jul 30, 2018

sir albion said:
You will see that there's a big world out there and you don't have to be in the EU to progress as a nation.We are not a small fish and would flourish outside.
You're just taking the easy option like many and you don't have the ambition to see what's possible outside !
You will talk down Britain but many will because they're weak and don't see anything past the EU.

So based on absolutely nothing other than a jingoisic belief in British exceptionalism.

Barnham Seagull · Jul 30, 2018

Stay in the EU.

Been a total waste of time and money up to now and will cause us financial and political problems moving forwards.

We should embrace the EU and be a active participant rather than a reluctant sceptic to get the best out of it.

Baldseagull · Jul 30, 2018

Two Professors said:
Perhaps if I explain it slowly to you it might sink in.Let's begin:

In a country far,far away from here,the clever people called Aussies needed a machine to travel under the sea.As they do not design these machines themselves,leaving it to the venial peoples of the world,they requested quotations.These came from numerous venial countries,including Japan (or maybe China),Germany,France,Spain etc.,although the Spanish design sank but wouldn't come up again so was discounted.After much discussion,and mysterious movements of gold,the French design was chosen and orders placed.Even though this country was under the grip of a brutal soul-less empire,some free trade was permitted,so they signed a deal.One country in an empire that controlled everything,allowed to sign a deal with a country that was not in the empire,surely the age of miracles was upon us!

Right,enough of that.A country in the EU signs a trade deal with a country outside the EU,as we will be in April next year.What is so hard for you to understand

No, they have signed a deal to build subs for Australia. I apologise, I have credited you with far too much intelligence, perhaps you could ask an idiot to explain it for you in words a cretin could understand.

WATFORD zero · Jul 30, 2018

sir albion said:
Not sure why people keep bleating on about these scenarios as we're leaving and I wouldn't pay them a penny in a divorce bill and go in the WTO

Well, as you're backing the WTO option and I'm sure you understand what you're talking about and not just typing out meaningless phrases, you must know that 5 days ago we and the EU submitted what we want our new trading terms to look like to the rest of the WTO.

We asked for the same deal that we had as when we were part of the EU, one of the largest trading blocs in the world. ( I have to admit, I'm not overly optimistic).

Now what happens is the rest of the WTO membership have 90 days to raise their objections and, as WTO members, they all have a right to say whether their trade would be affected. US, Brazil and New Zealand have already said they don't agree due to the fact that the EU and the UK share a quota system that limits imports of sensitive goods like beef, lamb and sugar. The UK cannot simply replicate these quotas and has proposed to split them with the EU based on historical trade flows. The EU has said no.

So, as an advocate of WTO, what do you think we should reply to the US, Brazil and New Zealand for starters ? (Lucky there's no time pressures

)

I'm sure that since you are backing WTO, you'll also be aware that the majority of other members will also take the opportunity to renegotiate with the now far smaller UK. Luckily for us, we won't have to negotiate with all 164 members as most have grouped together into trading blocs to give themselves more negotiating power. (After all, who would be stupid enough to try and negotiate on their own).

Oh and we are already committed to paying the divorce bill prior to any trade agreement, nearly 3 months ago - see here

Do try and keep up :smile:

seagulls4ever · Jul 30, 2018

nwgull said:
Almost three million people registered online to vote in between the GE being announced last April and deadline to be able to vote in it about 1 month later alone. If you include another few hundred thousand that will have turned 18 and registered to vote in the last 14 months, then 3m is quite a conservative estimate.

You said newly registered voters, and your swing calculations indicated these were people who hadn't voted before. Those who registered to vote aren't necessarily new voters - for example you have to register again if you change address.

Baldseagull · Jul 30, 2018

WATFORD zero said:
I don't think I'm that funny, but compared to certain half-wits on here I'm a complete f***ing comic genius

Anyway, shouldn't you be at the pub (or did that clear out completely when you arrived ?)

He was hoping to see Bryan Robson and the Waffen SS guys at his local, but they must have left early.

golddene · Jul 30, 2018

goldstone said:
Votes on here so far confirm that NSC is full of left-leaning halfwits who want us to be ruled by Brussels.

And so the abuse from the right begins! Well done!

Swillis · Jul 30, 2018

hans kraay fan club said:
All these 'immigrants that are filling up your housing and local schools and A&E - all EU immigrants are they?

I ask, of course, because the economy needs immigration. Once we stop folk from the EU coming, they'll be replaced with increased commonwealth immigration. India has already made clear that any trade deal will involve concessions to make it easier for their nationals to travel here.

Over the last 15 years the vast majority of new arrivals here have been from the EU.

Deleted member 22389 · Jul 30, 2018

nicko31 said:
If we do crash out, it won't just be the Tory party that will never be the same again, it will be the country. I cannot see the United Kingdom surviving this, a huge issue with the Irish border and it will tip the balance for the Scots to go it alone.

Brexit is a dodgy opinion poll that went wrong. Some are still chasing Unicorns though

Labour have already seen that this country will never be the same again. The country went years ago.

seagulls4ever · Jul 30, 2018

Simster said:
Do you need a definition of popular now? According to the recent Sky poll, remain has strengthened massively.

And why do you put smilies on all your posts even when inappropriate? Trivialising important topics makes you come across as vacuous.

You conveniently ignored my previous post when I called you out for saying there was now a massive majority for remain, or at least a vote on the final deal. You then said in another post it was more popular. Now you are saying according to the recent Sky poll, remain has strengthened massively. It's only one poll and is best compared against other Sky Data polls as different pollsters use different methodologies (I tried to find some, but couldn't - but they probably do exist). It doesn't give the specific question of leave vs remain so it isn't a like-for-like comparison.

I think there's probably been a bit of a shift to remain but it's not clear and it's certainly not as clear as you're trying to portray.

Simster said:
Unless you're one of the THREE MILLION British citizens who live abroad, weren't allowed to vote, and yet *are* entitled to vote in our general elections. I wonder how those 3 million living in the EU might have voted?

I thought the election rules were same for the GE and the referendum? That is, you have to have been registered to vote in the UK within the last 15 years. Around 3m couldn't vote in the referendum because they had been out too long, and around 1.4m of expats could. According to the Guardian, only about 20% of eligible expats registered to vote for the 2017 GE.

Remainers and leavers - just as bad as each other.

Edit: I should also have pointed out, as I did in a subsequent post, that there are around 1.2m UK citizens living in the EU, not 3m. Of these, only those who hadn't registered to vote in the UK during the previous 15 years weren't eligible. You are getting mixed up between expats living in the EU and expats living across the world (around 5m).

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