General Election 2015

Herr Tubthumper · Apr 25, 2015

Two weeks to go and it’s advantage Miliband

http://gu.com/p/47z6f

What do you reckon [MENTION=1416]Ernest[/MENTION]?

melias shoes · Apr 25, 2015

Herr Tubthumper said:
It will be a confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP.

You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours. Got a feeling it will be milliband doing the majority of the scratching. Not a great way to run the country is it. All the noise coming from sturgeon is that if this happens it will be her calling the shots.

melias shoes · Apr 25, 2015

drew said:
As someone else pointed out, that was hardly a mauling and, only tells part of the story. Hard to comment on whether individuals were at fault or if it was down to the policy of that particular trust. Would be interesting to know whether that caller took up the offer to discuss the matter further, most probably in private.

Now imagine if it was Cameron sitting there. Would you have said the same then?

ROSM · Apr 25, 2015

melias shoes said:
You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours. Got a feeling it will be milliband doing the majority of the scratching. Not a great way to run the country is it. All the noise coming from sturgeon is that if this happens it will be her calling the shots.

A formal coalition means agreeing the compromises. A confidence and supply arrangement means that you dont have to give up policies that are unpopular with your partners if you believe there are other parties who will support them.

So for example snp want to split the union but a majority of MPs probably don't. Snp don't want trident but likely backed by tories, a vote to keep it will pass.

But to get a budget and Queens speech passed there will likely be some compromises but I doubt that the gaps once discussed, will be insurmountable

Southy · Apr 25, 2015

Also means the SNP won't have any ministers in Govt unlike the last formal coalition.

Southy · Apr 25, 2015

This is why the Trident debate is irrelevant once Labour ruled out a formal coalition as they would vote any move to get rid of it down with the Tories.

melias shoes · Apr 25, 2015

ROSM said:
A formal coalition means agreeing the compromises. A confidence and supply arrangement means that you dont have to give up policies that are unpopular with your partners if you believe there are other parties who will support them.

So for example snp want to split the union but a majority of MPs probably don't. Snp don't want trident but likely backed by tories, a vote to keep it will pass.

But to get a budget and Queens speech passed there will likely be some compromises but I doubt that the gaps once discussed, will be insurmountable

Yes I understand how a confidence and supply agreement works. If policies aren't agreeable by both ,to me it would seem that the agreement would limp along with no real purpose. That's just how I feel.

ROSM · Apr 25, 2015

Yep [MENTION=222]Southy[/MENTION] trouble is, that many British people don't really understand their own parliamentary system. Coalitions were scary before the last election. Even the civil service sent officials to many countries to understand how it worked and how to play their role in negotiations

Herr Tubthumper · Apr 25, 2015

melias shoes said:
You scratch my back and I'll scratch yours. Got a feeling it will be milliband doing the majority of the scratching. Not a great way to run the country is it. All the noise coming from sturgeon is that if this happens it will be her calling the shots.

As I have said a few times now, Germany operates successfully, in fact very successfully, with a coalition and has done so for decades. I see none of the concerns or worries which people in the UK are expressing.

Herr Tubthumper · Apr 25, 2015

melias shoes said:
Yes I understand how a confidence and supply agreement works. If policies aren't agreeable by both ,to me it would seem that the agreement would limp along with no real purpose. That's just how I feel.

But what makes you think this will happen? And why do you think this will happen in the UK but does not happen Germany? Germany doesn't limp along....far from it. And remember there is a "grand coalition" here which in theory should make things very difficult. I'm prepared to accept that Labour and SNP can work together for the greater good.

Herr Tubthumper · Apr 25, 2015

ROSM said:
Yep [MENTION=222]Southy[/MENTION] trouble is, that many British people don't really understand their own parliamentary system. Coalitions were scary before the last election. Even the civil service sent officials to many countries to understand how it worked and how to play their role in negotiations

Very much this.

melias shoes · Apr 25, 2015

Herr Tubthumper said:
As I have said a few times now, Germany operates successfully, in fact very successfully, with a coalition and has done so for decades. I see none of the concerns or worries which people in the UK are expressing.

The latest coalition in my opinion has been good for the country. I'm not afraid of genuine coalitions HT.

Westdene Seagull · Apr 25, 2015

Herr Tubthumper said:
But what makes you think this will happen? And why do you think this will happen in the UK but does not happen Germany? Germany doesn't limp along....far from it. And remember there is a "grand coalition" here which in theory should make things very difficult. I'm prepared to accept that Labour and SNP can work together for the greater good.

Out of interest Herr T, do any of the parties in Germany rule out some parties they would work with in a coalition ? I just find it rather pathetic that here the SNP have ruled out working with the Tories for example. Thank god Nick Clegg didn't do that previously.

Herr Tubthumper · Apr 25, 2015

Westdene Seagull said:
Out of interest Herr T, do any of the parties in Germany rule out some parties they would work with in a coalition ? I just find it rather pathetic that here the SNP have ruled out working with the Tories for example. Thank god Nick Clegg didn't do that previously.

Good question. I remember the leader of the SDP said prior to the election that he would resign rather than work with Merkel. A fair play to the fella as he did indeed resign. His, former, party then entered into talks with Merkel to form the current government. I think his resignation was more due to his failure to get the majority of the votes though.

Aside from this I am not sure how much public courting and ruling-out goes on before the election though. I'll get back to you on this.

seagullsovergrimsby · Apr 25, 2015

Chicken Run said:
I have heard three senior members of the Labour Party now, state very clearly they have no intention of forming a coalition with the SNP. My question is who will they form a government with or are the Labour supporters on here hoping for a small majority?

If Labour win enough seats to be the largest party at Westminster they don't need the SNP with a supply and confidence arrangement providing the LibDems win a reasonable number of seats too. I think the LibDems have said they won't team up with the Tories if UKIP are in the equation.

Hatterlovesbrighton · Apr 25, 2015

seagullsovergrimsby said:
If Labour win enough seats to be the largest party at Westminster they don't need the SNP with a supply and confidence arrangement providing the LibDems win a reasonable number of seats too. I think the LibDems have said they won't team up with the Tories if UKIP are in the equation.

And the Tories have ruled out a deal with UKIP.

The Lib Dems have ruled out being involved in any sort of government with the SNP

So that means the likely scenarios are

labour and SNP confidence and supply

Labour and lib dem confidence and supply or maybe coalition

Tories, Lib dem and DUP confidence and supply.

seagullsovergrimsby · Apr 25, 2015

Hatterlovesbrighton said:
And the Tories have ruled out a deal with UKIP.

The Lib Dems have ruled out being involved in any sort of government with the SNP

So that means the likely scenarios are

labour and SNP confidence and supply

Labour and lib dem confidence and supply or maybe coalition

Tories, Lib dem and DUP confidence and supply.

The problem with the LibDems is that AFTER the election result they will be able to change their minds if they see any way of sharing power in a minority government regardless if it is blue or red.

Hatterlovesbrighton · Apr 25, 2015

seagullsovergrimsby said:
The problem with the LibDems is that AFTER the election result they will be able to change their minds if they see any way of sharing power in a minority government regardless if it is blue or red.

Maybe If Clegg is unseated. He has said yday that any party that comes 2nd but forms a government would lack legitimacy.

seagullsovergrimsby · Apr 25, 2015

Hatterlovesbrighton said:
Maybe If Clegg is unseated. He has said yday that any party that comes 2nd but forms a government would lack legitimacy.

I was thinking along those lines too , with Nasty Nick hastily sending off his CV to pull in a few lucrative directorships he ain't gonna be too bothered what happens.

beorhthelm · Apr 25, 2015

ROSM said:
A formal coalition means agreeing the compromises. A confidence and supply arrangement means that you dont have to give up policies that are unpopular with your partners if you believe there are other parties who will support them.

So for example snp want to split the union but a majority of MPs probably don't. Snp don't want trident but likely backed by tories, a vote to keep it will pass.

But to get a budget and Queens speech passed there will likely be some compromises but I doubt that the gaps once discussed, will be insurmountable

compromises like say no Trident, no this or that, must contain a policy favouring our corner of the UK... etc. we've yet to see what confidence and supply will look like in practice, but on paper it means the government has to produce a very watered down programme, which will be subject to excessive debate and risk being voted down if the "partner" doesnt support it - simply abstaining would be enough to defeat most legislation with the current numbers.

im increasing of the mind this is a good thing because they cant do much, which means we can get with it ourselfs for the better.

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