[Albion] All the permutations

StonehamPark · Apr 23, 2016

StonehamPark said:
Factor in goal difference.

For balance, 3 goals maximum for each team per game (max 6 goals total per game).

Does that = 59049 possibilities inc. W/L/D?

My mistake.

161,051 outcomes (including GD) based on a maximum 6 goals scored in any of the remaining games.

:shootself

Wozza · Apr 23, 2016

Timbo said:
Four points might not be enough, zero points might be enough.

Four points is definitely enough for promotion (assuming the win is against Boro).

AmexRuislip · Apr 23, 2016

This

Win, win all the way.

Raleigh Chopper · Apr 23, 2016

I am not sure but I think pi is involved somewhere.
Hope that helps.

perseus · Apr 23, 2016

StonehamPark said:
My mistake.

161,051 outcomes (including GD) based on a maximum 6 goals scored in any of the remaining games.

Albion 3-0 Derby
Boro 1-0 Albion

Burnley 2-4 QPR
Charlton 2-3 Burnley

means an extra game and a few other permutations within a six maximum goals may do as well?

beorhthelm · Apr 23, 2016

sparkie said:
5 matches

Albion v Derby
Birmingham v Middlesbrough
Burnley v QPR
Middlesbrough v Albion
Charlton v Burnley

Each with 3 possible outcomes.

3 to the power 5 = 243

its a simple, straight 5 x 3 for the number of outcomes. if we didnt play Middlesborough it'd be 6x3.

though on reflection it is potentially more complex with goal difference. but in points terms theres 15 outcomes.

Acker79 · Apr 23, 2016

I haven't put how the results affect the table (that would require taking account of goals scored) because that's too much for this time of night, but here are, I think, all the combinations of wins draws and losses.

Pickles · Apr 23, 2016

sparkie said:
There's 243 different combinations of Win Lose Draw for the top 3 teams.

I genuinely take my hat off to you for this great statistic. :clap2:

However, I reckon you could be chucking out around 235 of those.

KingKev · Apr 24, 2016

beorhthelm said:
its a simple, straight 5 x 3 for the number of outcomes. if we didnt play Middlesborough it'd be 6x3.

though on reflection it is potentially more complex with goal difference. but in points terms theres 15 outcomes.

Over 2 games any team can have 6 points outcomes (0,1,2,3,4,6) - but there are 2 ways of getting 1,3 or 4 points (I.e. 1 pt = either DL or LD). So there are 9 permutations before you get to GD / GS issues. That's just for one team, say BHA. Burnley has the same 9 independent outcomes, however because we play Boro the only independent outcomes for them that aren't factored into BHA's 9 are the 3 possible outcomes from their game with Brum.
So there are 21 (9+9+3) different and independent outcomes, 3 of which (I.e. the order in which Burnley would pick up 1,3 or 4 points) are completely irrelevant unless you want to focus on GD / GS. So there are 18 meaningful permutations of results - possibly, probably...going for another lie down....

Herr Tubthumper · Apr 24, 2016

Raleigh Chopper said:
I am not sure but I think pi is involved somewhere.
Hope that helps.

Balti pi?

chaileyjem · Apr 24, 2016

Is this it [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] ? PS: there are lot of scenarios in here which see us promoted :albion2:

Brighton L L - Play Offs
Brighton D W - Promoted
Brighton D L or L D - Promoted ONLY if Burnley L L
Brighton W L - Promoted only if Burnley either a) don't win again this season or b) promoted on goal difference if Burnley win once and can swing back the 3 goal difference and don't get thumped at Boro.
Brighton WW - Promoted
Brighton L W - a) If Boro lose v Brum then Brighton promoted. b) If Boro draw v Brum then Brighton promoted.c) If Boro win v Brum then only on GD and would requires a substantial goal swing so minimal Derby loss IF Burnley WW d) If Boro win and Burnley fail to win again this season then Brighton promoted.
Brighton D D - Promoted only if Burnley lose v QPR and either draw or lose v Charlton OR Boro lose v Brum

Schedule
Friday Apr 29th: 7.45pm Boro v Birmingham
Mon: May 2nd: 2pm Derby v Brighton
Mon: May 2nd: 4.30pm Burnley v QPR
Saturday May 7th: Charlton v Burnley
Saturday May 7th: Boro v Brighton

warmleyseagull · Apr 24, 2016

chaileyjem said:
Is this it ?

Brighton L L - Play Offs
Brighton D W - Promoted
Brighton D L or L D - Promoted ONLY if Burnley L L
Brighton W L - Promoted only if Burnley either a) don't win again this season or b) Burnley win once and Brighton thump Derby by > 4 or 5 .
Brighton WW - Promoted
Brighton L W - Either Promoted on GD if we overtake Boro so a 2 or 3-0 win or GD not an issue if Burnley fail to win again.
Brighton D D - Promoted only if Burnley lose v QPR and either draw or lose v Charlton OR Boro lose v Brum

Schedule
Friday Apr 29th: 7.45pm Boro v Birmingham
Mon: May 2nd: 2pm Derby v Brighton
Mon: May 2nd: 4.30pm Burnley v QPR
Saturday May 7th: Charlton v Burnley
Saturday May 7th: Boro v Brighton

Be promoted with LL if one of the others also LL by 3 (Boro) or 4 (Burnley) more and don't have silly scores that mean they exceed our GS. Rather unlikely...

GolfingGull · Apr 24, 2016

warmleyseagull said:
Be promoted with LL if one of the others also LL by 3 (Boro) or 4 (Burnley) more and don't have silly scores that mean they exceed our GS. Rather unlikely...

I know its early on a Sunday but us AND Boro cant go up LL as we bont cant lose the last game against each other ( nice thought though ) :smile:

warmleyseagull · Apr 24, 2016

GolfingGull said:
I know its early on a Sunday but us AND Boro cant go up LL as we bont cant lose the last game against each other ( nice thought though )

Yup, very early on Sunday. ignore the Boro bit and it is still true that LL will do if Burnley lose big time.

chaileyjem · Apr 24, 2016

thanks to [MENTION=19156]warmleyseagull[/MENTION]
A slight edit on the LL and also thanks to Edna on Twitter - oops i missed W D in that order.

Brighton L L - Promoted only if Burnley LL by more goals than Albion's LL + 3 more.
Brighton W D - Promoted a) if Burnley fail to win both games or less. b) or Boro fail to win v Brum c) or on GD assuming Burnley WW, Boro win v Brum and our win v Derby is a thumping 6 nil or more
Brighton D W - Promoted.
Brighton D L or L D - Promoted ONLY if Burnley L L
Brighton W L - Promoted only if Burnley either a) don't win again this season or b) promoted on goal difference if Burnley win once and can swing back the 3 goal difference and don't get thumped at Boro.
Brighton WW - Promoted
Brighton L W - a) If Boro lose v Brum then Brighton promoted. b) If Boro draw v Brum then Brighton promoted.c) If Boro win v Brum then only on GD and would requires a substantial goal swing so minimal Derby loss IF Burnley WW d) If Boro win and Burnley fail to win again this season then Brighton promoted.
Brighton D D - Promoted only if Burnley lose v QPR and either draw or lose v Charlton OR Boro lose v Brum

Schedule
Friday Apr 29th: 7.45pm Boro v Birmingham
Mon: May 2nd: 2pm Derby v Brighton
Mon: May 2nd: 4.30pm Burnley v QPR
Saturday May 7th: Charlton v Burnley
Saturday May 7th: Boro v Brighton

Notters · Apr 24, 2016

The Wizard said:
Hope QPR somehow beat Burnley* then if Boro and us both win play out a dull 0-0 draw to secure promotion for both of us. Would be the ideal scenario as I really want Burnley to get what's coming to them.

*not gonna happen

Er, bit worried no one has corrected this.

moggy · Apr 24, 2016

As long as we don't lose to Derby we can go up at boro

The Wizard · Apr 24, 2016

Notters said:
Er, bit worried no one has corrected this.

Corrected what? If both us and Boro win our next game and Burnley were to lose against QPR it would be:

Boro 90
Us 90
Burnley 87

Thus a draw on the final day of the season would mean both of us are promoted, no matter what. Not sure what you are getting at.

Lethargic · Apr 24, 2016

There is only one - Brighton get promoted, we are this close we must believe.

studio150 · Apr 24, 2016

sparkie said:
Not going to list all 243 of them but it is 3 to the power 5.

5 matches each with 3 different outcomes.

Should this not be higher given that the teams are level on points and therefore goal difference goals scored and a play off before the play offs may be required.

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[Albion] All the permutations

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