Flex Your Head
Well-known member
I love the way [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] demystifies the often confusing and complicated systems of charts, readings, and hardcore meteorology for us
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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
I love the way [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] demystifies the often confusing and complicated systems of charts, readings, and hardcore meteorology for us
No snow shown in the charts for the next 2 weeks down here. This week looks mild, often wet and breezy to windy at times.
D
Deleted member 22389
Guest
Honestly think apart from possibly a few frosty mornings we are not set up this year for snow. Will be the same as last year, wet and windy.
Snow at Christmas, nice idea, but I don't think there is any chance unless we have any forecasters who can tell me otherwise.
Snow at Christmas, nice idea, but I don't think there is any chance unless we have any forecasters who can tell me otherwise.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Far far too early to say that - both GFS and ECMWF have been toying with increased pressure to the north of the UK and the polar vortex is still very fragmented, so there are good signs that things can and may switch to a more easterly or northerly flow down the line. Down here it's probably still too early to get anything properly cold and snowy, as the sun's still got some strength. Give it until December and then let's see how things are shaping up. We don't want to waste a perfect setup in November.
casbom
Well-known member
- Jul 24, 2007
- 2,581
I suppose it could be possible it's similar to last year but already we're seeing completely different synoptics compared to last year. In fact this year compares favourably with 2009.
We have 3 teleconnections that are very interesting this year:
- SAI (Snow Advance Index) This is measured through October by check the snow gain below 60N over Eurasia. This year I think it was third only to 2009 and 1976. The more snow gain, the more chance of a huge Siberian Block which will help limit the Polar Vortex's strength.
- OPI (October Pressure Index) This is a relatively new index and still in it's infancy. Measures different pressures points around the Northern Hemisphere to check whether they're positive/negative per day ending with cumulative pressure anamoly at the end of October (my very simple and probably wrong summary!)
The hindcasts (checking this measure against previous years comes up with a correlation of 0.8 shows it might be onto something!) so with that mind, the final figure was -2.41, previous analogues shows that the AO will be negative for each winter month (supports high level blocking)
- Both of the above will affect the Stratosphere (the layer above the Troposphere - this is what our weather is in)
(read the opening post here to get an idea - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-1)
Current indications are that the Polar Vortex is really struggling to get going which means that there is an enhanced chance of us getting cold weather this winter, possibly from mid December onwards.
Plus other factors (weak el-nino, easterly QBO etc) all point to at least an average winter, possibly slightly colder than normal.
So I will be VERY surprised if we don't see snowfall this winter. Nothing like last year.
We have 3 teleconnections that are very interesting this year:
- SAI (Snow Advance Index) This is measured through October by check the snow gain below 60N over Eurasia. This year I think it was third only to 2009 and 1976. The more snow gain, the more chance of a huge Siberian Block which will help limit the Polar Vortex's strength.
- OPI (October Pressure Index) This is a relatively new index and still in it's infancy. Measures different pressures points around the Northern Hemisphere to check whether they're positive/negative per day ending with cumulative pressure anamoly at the end of October (my very simple and probably wrong summary!)
The hindcasts (checking this measure against previous years comes up with a correlation of 0.8 shows it might be onto something!) so with that mind, the final figure was -2.41, previous analogues shows that the AO will be negative for each winter month (supports high level blocking)
- Both of the above will affect the Stratosphere (the layer above the Troposphere - this is what our weather is in)
(read the opening post here to get an idea - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-1)
Current indications are that the Polar Vortex is really struggling to get going which means that there is an enhanced chance of us getting cold weather this winter, possibly from mid December onwards.
Plus other factors (weak el-nino, easterly QBO etc) all point to at least an average winter, possibly slightly colder than normal.
So I will be VERY surprised if we don't see snowfall this winter. Nothing like last year.
chucky1973
New member
I had a meeting at Gatwick today with the Head of the Surface Transport team. She deals with all the snow clearing operations they have to have in place for the winter. We are in the process of building the potentially recruited temp staff to drive the ploughs and the grab lorries a welfare area. Her exact words on the weather and the predicted weather was..."never listen to anything you read in a paper....full of sh*t. Her up to date weather was that it will be mainly wet and windy till the en of the year, middle of Jan and then there is a possibility of a sustained period of colder weather which could bring snow". They had no plans prior to Xmas to recruit the temp staff.
True about the tabloids, but would any true scientist claim to accurately forecast our weather pattern beyond the next 2 weeks? The data she had up to the end of year is either nonsense, or some business has been paid to state the obvious that Southern England will be mild, windy and wet (i.e. the usual).
Flex Your Head
Well-known member
Met Office; said:
Tsk!
http://www.express.co.uk/news/natur...er-forecast-UK-heavy-snow-months-polar-vortex
There's a POLAR VORTEX coming, we're DOOMED
There's a POLAR VORTEX coming, we're DOOMED
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
Remember last year? The Express continually and cynically exploit fears people have about the weather. Last October they confidently predicted the coldest November ever and then in December (after the mildest autumn in memory) they predicted 100 days of snow. They are absolutely ridiculous in their claims but continue as it sells papers.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...cause-months-of-heavy-snow-in-uk-9855584.html
I think you mean "Brrrr" because it's going to be so FRICKIN cold.
Flex Your Head
Well-known member
I love (hate) the way they lay on the doom and despair and warnings of winter apocalypse for paragraph after paragraph, and then finish with a single paragraph about the Met Office saying they reckon it will be milder and wetter than usual.
Twunts.
Flex Your Head
Well-known member
Depressing reading from the Times;
AS BRITAIN reels from the onslaught of the first winterstorms and floods, the Met Office has warned we could face one of the wettest winters in more than 30 years.
Its research suggests that conditions are right for the north Atlantic to deliver a succession of powerful weather systems similar to those that brought last year’s disastrous storms and floods.
Its three-month outlook, covering the period from today to January, warns that sea temperatures, wind speeds and pressure gradients on the western side of the north Atlantic could produce one of the wettest winters since 1981.
AS BRITAIN reels from the onslaught of the first winterstorms and floods, the Met Office has warned we could face one of the wettest winters in more than 30 years.
Its research suggests that conditions are right for the north Atlantic to deliver a succession of powerful weather systems similar to those that brought last year’s disastrous storms and floods.
Its three-month outlook, covering the period from today to January, warns that sea temperatures, wind speeds and pressure gradients on the western side of the north Atlantic could produce one of the wettest winters since 1981.
Plake
Unregistered User
Powerful Atlantic weather =/= snowy weather
D
Deleted member 2719
Guest
Get rubbing boys......http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/19/us/winter-weather/
- Jul 7, 2003
- 47,221
That's bizarrely localised, what's going on over there. Five feet of snow on one side of Buffalo, ten centimetres on the other. I know it's to do with the lake but it still seems ridiculous.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
FFS
http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/537436/UK-weather-USA-cold-arctic-temperatures-hit-Britain
We're DOOMED. AGAIN.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/537436/UK-weather-USA-cold-arctic-temperatures-hit-Britain
We're DOOMED. AGAIN.