Midfield Minton
New member
- Dec 18, 2013
- 266
Car said it was 9.5 all day in NW10 but never felt that warm,only dropped to 8.5 back in brighton,so would agree it's not very cold
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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
Midfield Minton
New member
- Dec 18, 2013
- 266
Xc giving 1.2cm of snow for 9am Thursday with a temp of 5
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
To give [MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION] his due, at face value that seems odd.
I've been discussing this on Weather Outlook with people far more qualified than me, and there are lots of factors involved. 5C will be the absolute maximum during a period. During showers there are many mechanisms that will reduce local temperatures. Let's see what occurs.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Here's the dichotomy. Surface temps seem high, BUT the 850hpa temps are ok for snow (not ideal, but ok) at about -6C.
The 6Z ensemble has 90% snow chances twice in the period from Wed night to Thurs lunchtime.
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8974/graphe_ens3_sbl8.gif
The 6Z ensemble has 90% snow chances twice in the period from Wed night to Thurs lunchtime.
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8974/graphe_ens3_sbl8.gif
carteater
Well-known member
30% chance of lying snow down here on thursday according to net weather, which is a good sign as they are second to US in debunking so called "cold spells" 
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Ok, here's the challenge.
What does this suggest?
(That's the very latest GFS ensemble, so latest data)
What does this suggest?
(That's the very latest GFS ensemble, so latest data)
- Aug 8, 2005
- 26,551
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The only bit I can understand is Keiron's Kindle. Why does that make me laugh?
- Aug 8, 2005
- 26,551
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30% chance of lying snow down here on thursday according to net weather, which is a good sign as they are second to US in debunking so called "cold spells"
And also a 32% chance next Tuesday. Odd.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
At the very least spell my name correctly please.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
There are signs of the cold / cool / decidedly average conditions to continue into next week, by which time we may in colder / cooler / lower end of average temperatures.
Yoda
English & European
Papa, what can the absolute max for the 2m temp be, for snow to be able to fall if the 850hpa temps & HGT 500-1000 are at the right levels?
Midfield Minton
New member
- Dec 18, 2013
- 266
That the odds for snow are getting better for a longer length of time??
A more sustained snow event
?Well if it does happen
Midfield Minton
New member
- Dec 18, 2013
- 266
Bit like Pats post or Dave's dinner
Yoda
English & European
Please try to remember that when you are watching the forecast on the Beeb, that they are talking, in general, about the WHOLE of the British Isles. Not just our little corner.
It will be cold or very cold in the north. Down here, the actual temperature may hit a max of 6 degrees for a few minutes, but because of the wind, the Real Feel (also known to some as wind chill) will be about 1 or 2.
Yoda
English & European
To me, that says the 850hpa temps & HGT 500-1000 doesn't get to the right levels for snow until most of the system has passed through
and we'll be hinging our bets on showers making it this far south.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
To me, that says the 850hpa temps & HGT 500-1000 doesn't get to the right levels for snow until most of the system has passed through
It's definitely showers or a mesoscale feature in the unstable flow, yes. Remember it's a well defined cold front, so narrow, with warm air in front and cold air behind.
Ian Fergusson has suggested a small almost frontal feature that will produce enhanced shower activity down here Wednesday night.
What is does show is the air behind the front is forecast to be cold and unstable.
Yoda
English & European
I have also just noticed looking at the ensembles on Netweather, that they are pretty much in agreement for about a week. How often do you see that?
Midfield Minton
New member
- Dec 18, 2013
- 266
In English,for us less weatherly folk
Hillian1
( . ) ( . )
It will get colder, there may be snow, possibly.
Midfield Minton
New member
- Dec 18, 2013
- 266
That's more like it,lol