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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]



Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
Is this all do with the path of El Nino being a bit further up again?

Where is the normal path of the El Nino?
[MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION] bases his position (if I'm not defaming him) on 'it's always mild in the winter down here', which 90% of the time is a correct guess.

The long range forecasts being generated all seem to suggest that El Nino will produce an unsettled December, with a strong Polar Vortex, which tends to lock cold air up in the Arctic, and generate a strong and flat jet stream. It's not until January when many forecasts are going for a cold spell of perhaps a couple of weeks, with High Pressure to the North of the UK, and cold Easterly winds.

My personal view is that we will see high pressure near or over the UK to the south within the next 10 days, so we'll see some benign weather, with frost possible, with more unsettled weather the further north, with other periods of more unsettled weather as the high relents and allows storms to zip across the UK.

There is a chance of snow further north Friday into the weekend as we get some cold Polar Maritime air behind a cold front.

There's little sign of anything notably cold down here on the horizon, although even with a fully flowing Atlantic train of storms, you can still get cold periods arising, but that is less likely.

The models will change though and we're still a month away from Xmas, so lots can and will change.

If anything 'juicy' appears I'm sure our resident weather watchers will mention it.

Until then [MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION] is on the money.
 




LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
46,486
SHOREHAM BY SEA
I'm in Cornwall in 2 weeks and then in Cumbria/Northumberland end of Feb....that will be a good indication for snow....but not maybe here
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,781
Lancing
10-13 C for the next 2 weeks at least and no frosts in that time. SW winds, that will make 9 weeks of constant SW's bar a couple of days last weekend when it veered to the NW. The signs are very poor for a snowy winter
 






Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,781
Lancing








Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing

Seems in line with what I said earlier... It's January or bust for snow down here.

I don't have any verification stats to support this, but these long range forecasts are usually way off - other than the obvious fact that if you forecast average temps and generally unsettled, with drier interludes, you'll be spot on at least 75% of the time.
 


Flex Your Head

Well-known member
For what it's worth (ie very little) a friend who has been a professional gardener for the past 25 years predicts a cold, snowy winter kicking off in the new year. This is based on "the behaviour of the plants and birds". It has apparently reminded her of the couple of snowy winters we had 5 or 6 years ago.

I'm desperate, so I'm clinging to the idea of a cold January.
 


Plake

Unregistered User
Nov 7, 2009
331
Brighton seafront
For what it's worth (ie very little) a friend who has been a professional gardener for the past 25 years predicts a cold, snowy winter kicking off in the new year. This is based on "the behaviour of the plants and birds". It has apparently reminded her of the couple of snowy winters we had 5 or 6 years ago.

I'm desperate, so I'm clinging to the idea of a cold January.

Your friend>>>>>>>Uncle Spielberg.
 








Vegas Seagull

New member
Jul 10, 2009
7,782
For what it's worth (ie very little) a friend who has been a professional gardener for the past 25 years predicts a cold, snowy winter kicking off in the new year. This is based on "the behaviour of the plants and birds". It has apparently reminded her of the couple of snowy winters we had 5 or 6 years ago.

I'm desperate, so I'm clinging to the idea of a cold January.

The last cold winter had the coldest day on 1/2nd December, I know as I landed a good bet on 'early'. Plants and birds are completely different this year eg with bees still knocking around yesterday
 














Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,781
Lancing
The difference between an optimist and pessimist.

The outcome is the same, just the optimist has a better time of it.[/QUOte I am often think being optimistic when all the facts show you are wrong is being deluded. The set up this winter is absolutely dreadful with just a strong sw for months on end this cold snap at the weekend will see 13 c here on Sunday
 


BigGully

Well-known member
Sep 8, 2006
7,139
The difference between an optimist and pessimist.

The outcome is the same, just the optimist has a better time of it.[/QUOte I am often think being optimistic when all the facts show you are wrong is being deluded. The set up this winter is absolutely dreadful with just a strong sw for months on end this cold snap at the weekend will see 13 c here on Sunday

I am usually on your side, it seems pointless offering a favourable outcome of cold when within the models none exist, also you can dig deeper into the science of meteorology and use it to confirm whatever outcome you might prefer, its an inexact science and beyond 5 days we are mostly weeing in the wind.

However on that point you cannot seriously predict months full of south westerlies based on any current model outputs, although you gain an advantage by this being our default weather anyway, there is nothing conclusive not to predict colder weather with snow.

We just cannot know ....................
 



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