[Politics] Brexit

Seasidesage · Jan 16, 2019

In all honesty how can anyone know at this point? There is no consensus for any outcome at all. Not no deal, not remain, or any point in between in the commons. The most likely outcome I'd say is a second referendum but even then I don't think you could say that with any conviction.

Its a full on shambles and whatever the outcome I hope it leads to the break up of both main parties, who have acted disgracfully with no thought to anything other than their own self interest.

WATFORD zero · Jan 16, 2019

Obviously, it's not going to happen and only an idiot would think otherwise, but you have to be able to see the funny side of a load on 'no dealers' trying to deal with 'no deal' ?

lawros left foot · Jan 16, 2019

btnbelle said:
We can make trade deals with the world.

New jobs will be created for example border force personnel.

Entrepreneur's will fill gaps in the market creating jobs.

We will have £39 billion extra to invest in our own people, support business and build infrastructure.

We can control who we invite into our country and people here will get better opportunities to train and work in higher paid jobs and careers.

Wages will increase, people will pay more tax because they earn more boosting the economy. You can see why business wants us to stay on this one.

We will make our own laws.

Depends on how you feel about this one, alcohol duty on shop bought wine will increase, making the nation healthier. We can set a different rate of duty to support our pubs. Not possible now with free movement of goods.

Not even Farage and Johnson believe this now.

luge · Jan 16, 2019

btnbelle said:
We can make trade deals with the world.

Over what timeframe? These deals take years to negotiate and implement. Alsmost all of the nations that we would wish to/are worth trading with, we already have fantastic deals with through the EU.

btnbelle said:
New jobs will be created for example border force personnel.

This is conjecture. Also, the borders would be at a standstill in the case of a no deal brexit.

btnbelle said:
Entrepreneur's will fill gaps in the market creating jobs.

Conjecture. History has proven that trickle down economics is a pile of horseshit.

btnbelle said:
We will have £39 billion extra to invest in our own people, support business and build infrastructure.

It is not extra, it is money we may not spend in regard to a withdrawal agreement. We have also commited £4bn for no deal preperations in any case.

btnbelle said:
We can control who we invite into our country and people here will get better opportunities to train and work in higher paid jobs and careers.

In reality, we would be inviting everyone in that we could to fill up the massive gaps that are already present with people who are not coming into the country as a result of brexit. We also have control, right now, under the terms of our EU membership to chose who comes in or not.

btnbelle said:
Wages will increase, people will pay more tax because they earn more boosting the economy. You can see why business wants us to stay on this one.

This would be nice. It is conjecture.

btnbelle said:
We will make our own laws.

We do anyway. This is the biggest fallacy of being part of the EU. If we really want to do something, we generally do it (see iraq, Austerity drive under tories)

btnbelle said:
Depends on how you feel about this one, alcohol duty on shop bought wine will increase, making the nation healthier. We can set a different rate of duty to support our pubs. Not possible now with free movement of goods.

This can happen now. We have a fuel duty which is a UK policy, not an EU policy. Good luck telling any government to stop the taps on a major source of tax income.

A1X · Jan 16, 2019

I'm a natural pessimist. Yes we will. It's about mitigating that.

luge · Jan 16, 2019

The campaign, if it occurred, would have to centre on the benefits of being part of the EU and the facts that we do actually have control over what we want to do.

Thunder Bolt · Jan 16, 2019

Giraffe said:
I don't accept that. The thing that remainers don't seem to understand is that a large majority of those that voted leave did so because of the principal of sovereignty and control of our laws and money. Nothing has changed on that front so why would their vote change. I think most leavers would accept a small decline in economic growth to achieve this. So they would be voting leave again because they feel as strongly as last time, not just because of some sort of resentment as you suggest.

The truth is that we've always had sovereignty, and control of our laws and money. The Leave propaganda insinuated that we hadn't and got a lot of people worked up about it, with their 'take back control' mantra.

luge · Jan 16, 2019

Thunder Bolt said:
The truth is that we've always had sovereignty, and control of our laws and money. The Leave propaganda insinuated that we hadn't and got a lot of people worked up about it, with their 'take back control' mantra.

Very much this - and this needs to start too be reflected in the current discourse.

Seasidesage · Jan 16, 2019

btnbelle said:
We can make trade deals with the world.

New jobs will be created for example border force personnel.

Entrepreneur's will fill gaps in the market creating jobs.

We will have £39 billion extra to invest in our own people, support business and build infrastructure.

We can control who we invite into our country and people here will get better opportunities to train and work in higher paid jobs and careers.

Wages will increase, people will pay more tax because they earn more boosting the economy. You can see why business wants us to stay on this one.

We will make our own laws.

Depends on how you feel about this one, alcohol duty on shop bought wine will increase, making the nation healthier. We can set a different rate of duty to support our pubs. Not possible now with free movement of goods.

Not sure I agree that is what would happen with all of that, but my real worry with it would be, would you trust either this Tory Government or a JC led Labour Govt to deliver any of the above properly? We have had decades of incompetent UK Governments and now we are hoping the next one will suddenly be wise enough to spend and take advantage of the opportunities if they actually exist?

luge · Jan 16, 2019

Seasidesage said:
Not sure I agree that is what would happen with all of that, but my real worry with it would be, would you trust either this Tory Government or a JC led Labour Govt to deliver any of the above properly? We have had decades of incompetent UK Governments and now we are hoping the next one will suddenly be wise enough to spend and take advantage of the opportunities if they actually exist?

Almost none of that would happen - it is not an achievable aim or outcome.

The Merry Prankster · Jan 16, 2019

Giraffe said:
...... We have nothing to fear from this at all.

I'm no Remainer but you have absolutely no idea if that is true and as a person with some juicy health conditions, you'll forgive me if I don't take your word for it.

Baldseagull · Jan 16, 2019

cunning fergus said:
Well, as i have explained before, leaving the EU would be a radical step taken against the presently insitu establishment. Accordingly, in the traditional context of what is left snd right wing, Brexit is left wing. Radicalism is left, conservatism is right and any notion that remaining is a left wing construct in those terms is wrong.

Taking a more contemprary and economic view, (which I think you franked yesterday) new labour were tories (and therefore right wing economically). They are unlike Corbyn who is socialist snd has therefore been historically opposed to the EU.

There is not much about the EU that is nominally left wing, it could be defined as liberal in some regards, but not left wing.

In these days where truth is a pre requisite in political discourse, we should recognise that so we know who is genuinely left wing and socialist, and who is a right wing Tory/liberal.

Fairs fair....

The administration may be left or right, but the institution is neither in itself.

Kalimantan Gull · Jan 16, 2019

Giraffe said:
I don't accept that. The thing that remainers don't seem to understand is that a large majority of those that voted leave did so because of the principal of sovereignty and control of our laws and money. Nothing has changed on that front so why would their vote change. I think most leavers would accept a small decline in economic growth to achieve this. So they would be voting leave again because they feel as strongly as last time, not just because of some sort of resentment as you suggest.

Well, we may see I guess.
.
.
... but God I hate that 'control of our laws' argument. We were leading the way in Europe, changing how a whole continent works for the better, barely anything came back the other way that we didn't like. Just decades of misinformation making it seem like the EU was telling us what to do, when in reality it was the other way round.

Anyway, just got that off my chest, I know you disagree

Falmer Flutter © · Jan 16, 2019

btnbelle said:
We can make trade deals with the world.

New jobs will be created for example border force personnel.

Entrepreneur's will fill gaps in the market creating jobs.

We will have £39 billion extra to invest in our own people, support business and build infrastructure.

We can control who we invite into our country and people here will get better opportunities to train and work in higher paid jobs and careers.

Wages will increase, people will pay more tax because they earn more boosting the economy. You can see why business wants us to stay on this one.

We will make our own laws.

Depends on how you feel about this one, alcohol duty on shop bought wine will increase, making the nation healthier. We can set a different rate of duty to support our pubs. Not possible now with free movement of goods.

That is amazing. A load of optimistic conjecture (maybe we can call it "Project Happy") and stuff we can and already do. It's a great game to play. Just ask someone who voted leave to name ONE benefit that we'll get if/when we leave the EU that we don't get now. I played it over Christmas (the time flies in my household). My elderly neighbour: We'll get our freedom of speech back so he'll be able to call Irish people Paddy again. My elderly mum: Butter will be cheap again, like it was before we joined. She doesn't even eat butter (presumably because it's too expensive).

The Tactician · Jan 16, 2019

btnbelle said:
We can make trade deals with the world. Can do while remaining part of the EU

New jobs will be created for example border force personnel.

Entrepreneur's will fill gaps in the market creating jobs. "a no-deal Brexit could deliver a 9.3% hit, the new estimates say." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

We will have £39 billion extra to invest in our own people, support business and build infrastructure. The same £39 billion we will still possess if we remain

We can control who we invite into our country We can. "we need tighter control of EU migration into the UK by applying current EU rules, which state that migrants must prove that they are either working, actively seeking work or self-sufficient. Otherwise, they can be removed after three months." https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/20/peoples-vote-eu-immigration-controls-brexit
and people here will get better opportunities to train and work in higher paid jobs and careers. I'm sure you're not saying English people have a more divine right to higher paid positions just because they're Englsh? Of course, oppotunities for people are reliant on our own government's education and infrastructure policies, and making the country attractive for businesses (Perhaps, by being part of the biggest trading group in the world)

Wages will increase, people will pay more tax because they earn more boosting the economy. You can see why business wants us to stay on this one. No. Wages will not increase, the vast majority of qualified economists predict the opposite. "But even before Brexit happens, the evidence on inflation, wages and output already shows that the UK is paying a price for voting to leave the EU." http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/...starting-to-negatively-affect-the-uk-economy/

We will make our own laws. We already do. "Parliament has “remained sovereign throughout our membership to the EU” despite people “not always feeling like that”, the Brexit White Paper says." https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...endum-campaign-brussels-article-a7559556.html

Depends on how you feel about this one, alcohol duty on shop bought wine will increase, making the nation healthier. We can set a different rate of duty to support our pubs. Not possible now with free movement of goods.

HOW DARE YOU, you can take our lives, **** it, take our freedom, but you may never, NEVER TAKE OUR BOOZE

All the sources there for you. A No-Deal Brexit is an inexcusable mess, it is profoundly unpatriotic. I want the best for our country.

vegster · Jan 16, 2019

Herr Tubthumper said:
Whilst I don’t want it, a No-deal Brexit will be utterly hilarious to watch from a safe distance.

We could well end up with a shitstorm the way things our looking....mind you, I have to work with a Polish bloke, might be plenty of overtime soon.

Harry Wilson's tackle · Jan 16, 2019

btnbelle said:
We were told of the disaster we would have the day after the referendum. That did not materialise, .

I'll stop you there. We haven't left yet.

Yep, no point discussing this.....

Baldseagull · Jan 16, 2019

Giraffe said:
"By the skillful and sustained use of propaganda, one can make a people see even heaven as hell or an extremely wretched life as paradise."

Adolf Hitler.

Is this what leavers mean when they say just believe and it will be alright? If I just believe a wretched life is paradise, I will be in paradise?

cunning fergus · Jan 16, 2019

Baldseagull said:
The administration may be left or right, but the institution is neither in itself.

That makes little sense, the instutions pursues objectives set by its leaders, to turn the EU into a more socialist oriented institution would take more than just filling it with socialists.

This piece by Paul Mason is similar to my take...

https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...ar-eu-neoliberalism-prevent-brussels-sabotage

Its more than Treaties like Lisbon though its the tsunami of Directives and Regulations that are essentially loaded in favour of big established global business, leaving little space for small emerging businesses (see i can do capitalism) and this bias is deliberate.

Fact is, the EU does not want socialism or radical left wing policies, it wants Blarites, liberals and Tories. I’m always staggered by the ignorance, naivety or otherwise from what i suspect are normally rationaly minded people in not accepting this position.

get that board down! · Jan 16, 2019

Interesting how close it is isn't it.

I find the 39 Billion bit particularly laughable - we gain 39 Billion (I think) but lose 10 times that or more in reducing economy so massive net loss, not gain and a very strong reason to stay not leave. Depends if you believe the predictions of course like the predicted 20% fall in our currency value - an outrageous lie that simply did not happen ... oh hold on!

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