[Misc] Has anyone tried the Martingale betting method

Bold Seagull · Jan 4, 2019

Bozza said:
The bread and butter is what you have probably done with those two...

1. Place a back bet with a bookie.
2. Place a corresponding lay bet with an exchange, taking a small loss.
3. Receive a free bet that you turn into guaranteed cash by doing another back/lay at likely longer odds.

Sometimes you do the initial back/lay in the hope of triggering a free bet, as opposed to one being guaranteed.

What you'll find is that you have a pot of money that basically gets swirled around between different bookies and exchange(s) and the size of that pot will gradually grow.

So when a match is 100% or above, you basically cannot lose? As your back and lay bets are such that you would be in profit, I'm getting that right?

Smarkets against betfair there are currently a couple of matches at 133% and 121%. Seems too easy!

Bozza · Jan 4, 2019

Bold Seagull said:
So when a match is 100% or above, you basically cannot lose? As your back and lay bets are such that you would be in profit, I'm getting that right?

Smarkets against betfair there are currently a couple of matches at 133% and 121%. Seems too easy!

Arbs are few and far between, don't tend to last long and are quite marginal.

By all means post the bets you've seen and I'll check them out.

Bold Seagull · Jan 4, 2019

Bozza said:
Arbs are few and far between, don't tend to last long and are quite marginal.

By all means post the bets you've seen and I'll check them out.

It's gone already so I've been caught out laying against a HT/FT with the back bet disappearing from the other exchange before I placed it. Not sure whether to cash out the lay and just accept the small hit.

pauli cee · Jan 4, 2019

I do like the sounds of all this, but unfortunately think I have opened an account with virtually all online bookies over the years already.
Am guessing this could be a bit of a stumbling block

GoingUp · Jan 5, 2019

Simster said:
I've seen 7 blacks come up before and that does feel like it may as well be 15-20, but the odds of it happening are within the realms of realistic probability - 128/1 I think. I suspect you probably haven't seen 15-20 reds in a row even if you think you have!

I got a few quotes so I'll just quote you being the last one haha I have had a whole screen of red/blacks before, how many can you get on one screen? I dont want to go look because I'll probably end up getting sucked into roulette session haha

I really dont think roulette is always random, I used to play the ones in the bookies and rind patterns, I knew people 100x better than me that used to make a fortune on them in the bookies.

Brownstuff · Jan 6, 2019

darkwolf666 said:
I know there are a few gamblers on here and a few matched bettors, so I wondered if any of you had used the Martingale principle of betting, I.e. doubling your stake after a losing bet.

I have a fairly healthy betting bank so have been carrying out a trial, to attempt to make £30 a day to give a return of £900+ per month.

I have used £30 as my benchmark figure and so far I have not had to go above £480 to get a win, and usually go no further than £120 (two sequential losses). I always back at odds of 2.0 or as close as possible.

After 21 days, after taking of my stake money, my new bank stands at £987, £357 above my target.

Any thought from fellow bettors/gamblers?

Swerve this system as it will hurt you in the end
I have been on the end of unimaginable losing streaks more than a few times
This can then lead to doing the total opposite of your original judgement during these streaks (not a good place to be in)

Bozza · Jan 6, 2019

Bold Seagull said:
It's gone already so I've been caught out laying against a HT/FT with the back bet disappearing from the other exchange before I placed it. Not sure whether to cash out the lay and just accept the small hit.

Sounds like you're trying to run before you walk. Just stick to easy New Customer Offers to start with and learn the back/lay ropes.

Bozza · Jan 6, 2019

pauli cee said:
I do like the sounds of all this, but unfortunately think I have opened an account with virtually all online bookies over the years already.
Am guessing this could be a bit of a stumbling block

I'd be surprised if you've opened them all up - new ones are appearing all the time.

Regardless of that, no, it's not a stumbling block. New Customer Offers are the low-hanging fruit and are useful for helping you learn the ropes of backing/laying and building up a bit of a bank to work with. However, most of the profits come after that in ongoing offers.

Having long-standing accounts may work in your favour since you look like an established punter and not someone who has just joined up to do matched betting.

Bob'n'weave · Jan 6, 2019

I've signed up with Profit Squad. I know bugger all about this, just watched the vids and it makes sense, sort of. Going to take it slow and steady.

Quick question - is Betfair the go-to exchange for managing the lay bets?

KZNSeagull · Jan 6, 2019

Bob'n'weave said:
I've signed up with Profit Squad. I know bugger all about this, just watched the vids and it makes sense, sort of. Going to take it slow and steady.

Quick question - is Betfair the go-to exchange for managing the lay bets?

It is, as it has the most markets. Smarkets is a good alternative and is cheaper commission wise but I found it less easy to use at first. But it is good once you get used to it. Once you get used to what you are doing, matchbook does 0% commission for a while once you open an account but it does not have anything like as many markets as Betfair. Im on profit squad - pm me if you have any questions.

Bold Seagull · Jan 6, 2019

Bozza said:
Sounds like you're trying to run before you walk. Just stick to easy New Customer Offers to start with and learn the back/lay ropes.

Got away with it really as WH had the back bet odds I needed to cover the lay bet I'd already made. I always jump in feet first!

pauli cee · Jan 6, 2019

Bozza said:
I'd be surprised if you've opened them all up - new ones are appearing all the time.

Regardless of that, no, it's not a stumbling block. New Customer Offers are the low-hanging fruit and are useful for helping you learn the ropes of backing/laying and building up a bit of a bank to work with. However, most of the profits come after that in ongoing offers.

Having long-standing accounts may work in your favour since you look like an established punter and not someone who has just joined up to do matched betting.

Cheers Bozza, will let you know how I go!

Bob'n'weave · Jan 6, 2019

KZNSeagull said:
It is, as it has the most markets. Smarkets is a good alternative and is cheaper commission wise but I found it less easy to use at first. But it is good once you get used to it. Once you get used to what you are doing, matchbook does 0% commission for a while once you open an account but it does not have anything like as many markets as Betfair. Im on profit squad - pm me if you have any questions.

Much appreciated. Will do. :thumbsup:

Bold Seagull · Jan 6, 2019

KZNSeagull said:
It is, as it has the most markets. Smarkets is a good alternative and is cheaper commission wise but I found it less easy to use at first. But it is good once you get used to it. Once you get used to what you are doing, matchbook does 0% commission for a while once you open an account but it does not have anything like as many markets as Betfair. Im on profit squad - pm me if you have any questions.

How would the bookies know you're playing matched markets? Maybe [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] too? i.e. how would William Hill know you're laying with Befair if you're backing with them? Doesn't it just look a normal bet to them and losing and winning at random?

pauli cee · Jan 6, 2019

Bold Seagull said:
How would the bookies know you're playing matched markets? Maybe [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] too? i.e. how would William Hill know you're laying with Befair if you're backing with them? Doesn't it just look a normal bet to them and losing and winning at random?

Hi Bold.
Just signed up too, found 4 bookies I wasn't joined with already, and taken the deals, (may have messed 1 up),all bets on wolves v scousers, so a win coming in and free bets, not sure where it heads from here tho

(hope you got your house sorted :smile:

)

KZNSeagull · Jan 6, 2019

Bold Seagull said:
How would the bookies know you're playing matched markets? Maybe [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] too? i.e. how would William Hill know you're laying with Befair if you're backing with them? Doesn't it just look a normal bet to them and losing and winning at random?

They don't necessarily, but they look for betting patterns. One of the best ways to lose an account is to do a lot of each way betting on high EV races (ie the ones that profit squad highlight as extra value) - many people have lost accounts through that alone (I certainly have!). In fact I have lost so many (by lost, I mean banned from promotions) that I only use the banned ones for these races now. The other thing they will do is monitor to see if you only do bets with promotions (for example, if you only ever do bets when you get a free bet as a result, or only bet on races where a free bet is possible). So the best thing to do is vary your bets with the good value bookies (BET365, William Hill etc). I place a lot of accumulators with them and have yet to be banned from any bookie on which i do that. But have a look on the forum in profit squad and there is some good advice in there. But at the end of the day, some bookies will ban you from promotions just for breathing and there is no guaranteed way of avoiding it.

KZNSeagull · Jan 6, 2019

pauli cee said:
Hi Bold.
Just signed up too, found 4 bookies I wasn't joined with already, and taken the deals, (may have messed 1 up),all bets on wolves v scousers, so a win coming in and free bets, not sure where it heads from here tho

(hope you got your house sorted)

Go through all the training on PS and there are lots of other things that you can do other then sign up offers (I have not done any of those for long time). It's not only about exploiting free bets.

Billy Seagull · Jan 6, 2019

There is only one way to avoid losing accounts and that is not to win

Most of them have pathetic thresholds and if you get to four figures out of most of them you've done well. If all you do is play for free bets, constantly bet at best price available or arbing then they will close you down too. I had a brand new set of accounts in June and I've had more closed than are ones. Well, they don't close you but they limit you to win a tenner or a fiver, pathetic shysters. If you want a bet of three figures, that isn't £9.99, they wont last long at all and the shops will not want your custom much either.

One of the occupational hazards of being a gambler.

Betfair are unfortunately the only exchange worthwhile, the others are very two bob.

pauli cee · Jan 6, 2019

KZNSeagull said:
Go through all the training on PS and there are lots of other things that you can do other then sign up offers (I have not done any of those for long time). It's not only about exploiting free bets.

Cheers mate, will get my straight head on and trawl through PS when I get some time, will get into this I'm sure

Bozza · Jan 6, 2019

Bob'n'weave said:
I've signed up with Profit Squad. I know bugger all about this, just watched the vids and it makes sense, sort of. Going to take it slow and steady.

Quick question - is Betfair the go-to exchange for managing the lay bets?

I'd suggest starting with Smarkets for a few reasons:

- 2% commission, although you can opt for a lower commission with Betfair now I think.
- Betfair Sportsbook (ie the regular fixed odds bookie side) has some reasonable offers. However you would not get away with backing on the Betfair Sportsbook and then laying on the Betfair Exchange for very long.
- Betfair and Paddy Power are the same company. Again, you'll not last long if you back on Paddy and lay on the Betfair exchange.

Smarkets tend to have decent liquidity on most things, particularly football, although it can be a bit thin on lower-profile stuff.

Bold Seagull said:
How would the bookies know you're playing matched markets? Maybe [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] too? i.e. how would William Hill know you're laying with Befair if you're backing with them? Doesn't it just look a normal bet to them and losing and winning at random?

[MENTION=9822]KZNSeagull[/MENTION] has covered it off. They won't know you're laying but your betting patterns will give away that you're a Matched Bettor, ie...

- Opening an account with a sum that exactly matches that required to trigger the new customer offer.
- Betting on something low-ish odds which is a close match to exchange prices (most bookies will track the exchange price every time you strike a bet to see how much value you are taking)
- Using free bets on 4/1+ odds, as this is the way to get best value extraction from your free bets.
- Betting on offers that trigger or may trigger free bet offers most/all of the time.

Bookie systems are all automated, but your activity may trigger manual review. I reckon I'd have a very high success rate of correctly identifying a matched better by reviewing their betting activity.

Try to disguise your matched betting activity as much as you can!

Billy Seagull said:
There is only one way to avoid losing accounts and that is not to win Most of them have pathetic thresholds and if you get to four figures out of most of them you've done well. If all you do is play for free bets, constantly bet at best price available or arbing then they will close you down too. I had a brand new set of accounts in June and I've had more closed than are ones. Well, they don't close you but they limit you to win a tenner or a fiver, pathetic shysters. If you want a bet of three figures, that isn't £9.99, they wont last long at all and the shops will not want your custom much either.

One of the occupational hazards of being a gambler.

Betfair are unfortunately the only exchange worthwhile, the others are very two bob.

I'm not sure I agree in all cases. My WH an 365 accounts, used for matched betting, both were very highly in profit (which meant I'd lost at exchanges) and persisted for a long, long time.I think it's often more about value taken and bonus abuse.

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[Misc] Has anyone tried the Martingale betting method

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