Yes well done, nice bit of night fishing !
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General Election 2015
- Thread starter Herr Tubthumper
- Start date
Yes well done, nice bit of night fishing !
seagulls4ever
New member
- Oct 2, 2003
- 4,338
Other polls:
Populus: CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%.
YouGov/Sun: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%.
ComRes/Indy telephone poll: CON 29%(+1), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 12%(+3), UKIP 16%(-2), GRN 5%(-2).
Populus: CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%.
YouGov/Sun: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%.
ComRes/Indy telephone poll: CON 29%(+1), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 12%(+3), UKIP 16%(-2), GRN 5%(-2).
Buzzer
Languidly Clinical
- Oct 1, 2006
- 26,121
Lord Ashcroft latest polls for Brighton Pavilion:
Green 38%
Lab 28%
Con 21%
UKIP 8%
Lib Dem 5%
Other 1%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/1...t-labour-final-marginals-poll-2014/#more-7089
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Brighton-Pavilion-Data-tables-Dec-14.pdf
Green 38%
Lab 28%
Con 21%
UKIP 8%
Lib Dem 5%
Other 1%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/1...t-labour-final-marginals-poll-2014/#more-7089
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Brighton-Pavilion-Data-tables-Dec-14.pdf
Nightmare, more like.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Thanks for this Buzzer. We're a bright lot round these parts.
Vegas Seagull
New member
- Jul 10, 2009
- 7,782
Good post, see the Yellows are down to 5% and last election in Lewes polled 52%...they share a boundary don't they? If so must be some sort of record difference & poss why Baker is running scared?
London Irish
Well-known member
For the elitists and trust funders, sure
seagullsovergrimsby
#cpfctinpotclub
Local polling by both parties have them neck and neck
Buzzer
Languidly Clinical
- Oct 1, 2006
- 26,121
I'd wager that Lord Ashcroft's polling is slightly more sophisticated and a tad more independent.
seagullsovergrimsby
#cpfctinpotclub
Ashcroft's poll would have only been from about 1,000 responses , the local parties on the ground will be gauging the percentages throughout the entire constituency on a much larger basis. The only worthwhile statistics are those known after the event because predictions and forecasts can still go tits up.
- Thread starter
- #831
I'm struggling to see anything but a Green victory in Brighton.
Buzzer
Languidly Clinical
- Oct 1, 2006
- 26,121
I don't think that's entirely true. Ashcroft has far greater resources at his disposal, he's also got a professional team of statisticians who publish their questions, their results and the various weightings with the reasoning behind them. People from all parties take Ashcroft's polls very seriously and it wouldn't surprise me if the likes of Labour HQ put more store behind these results than canvassing by their local party members. Even something as simple as saying "Hi, I'm conducting a poll on behalf of your local Labour Party..." can skew opinions let alone leading and/or loaded questions, and then you've got to take into account how the data is collected and interpreted. I sincerely doubt they have the same expertise locally.
seagullsovergrimsby
#cpfctinpotclub
Latest Ipsos/Mori poll has the Tories back in front with a 3% lead.
melias shoes
Well-known member
- Oct 14, 2010
- 4,830
It's going to be swings and roundabouts right up to the election. That's the only poll that counts.
Tom Bombadil
Well-known member
Given the unpopularity of the green council is the strong polling entirely down to Caroline Lucas do you think?
Mellor 3 Ward 4
Well-known member
I've been saying for months that the election will be decided by how many who voted UKIP at the European elections drift back to the Tories.
Enough and they'll probably be the largest party. Otherwise it's Ed.
seagullsovergrimsby
#cpfctinpotclub
Golly UKIP were on 33%
I think that alarming drop is actually Nigel's own personality rating rather than the party support.
Buzzer
Languidly Clinical
- Oct 1, 2006
- 26,121
Got to be, hasn't it? What do you reckon?