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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]



Yoda

English & European
Weather pornage on the 06z GFS with not just the cold air over us but also a couple of low pressure systems moving across to the South of us from the continent. :ohmy:
 

Yoda

English & European
Most of the models on the ensembles are in rough agreement up to a week ahead now:
graphe3_1000_296_176___.gif
 

larus

Well-known member
So the 5-6c is for the following week?

Well, we can’t get snow settling/cold spell as the sun is tooooo strong at this time of the year.

I think we’ll look back on 2018 as ‘one of those winters’ in a few years time (OK, it’s not certain, but the general consensus appears to be this is very likely, and also, if it arrives, it will be a sustained period).
 


edna krabappel

Well-known member
NSC Licker Extraordinaire
Jul 7, 2003
47,215
Well, we can’t get snow settling/cold spell as the sun is tooooo strong at this time of the year.

I think we’ll look back on 2018 as ‘one of those winters’ in a few years time (OK, it’s not certain, but the general consensus appears to be this is very likely, and also, if it arrives, it will be a sustained period).


Look, I don't know what all these pictures and graphs mean, so can somebody just tell me please: at what point should I dig out the snow boots and start getting excited?
 

martin tyler

Well-known member
Jan 25, 2013
5,825
Look, I don't know what all these pictures and graphs mean, so can somebody just tell me please: at what point should I dig out the snow boots and start getting excited?

I’m new to reading graphs like these but I think and I hope an expert can assist but I think that next weekend onwards currently looks pretty tasty and the models are all beginning to suggest a really cold easterly flow and snow. Only downside is it’s still a week away and so much can still change but the models are all beginning to sing from the same sheet so it’s increasingly likely. Certainly colder than the 10 degrees that has been suggested and lots of potential for snow
 

edna krabappel

Well-known member
NSC Licker Extraordinaire
Jul 7, 2003
47,215
I’m new to reading graphs like these but I think and I hope an expert can assist but I think that next weekend onwards currently looks pretty tasty and the models are all beginning to suggest a really cold easterly flow and snow. Only downside is it’s still a week away and so much can still change but the models are all beginning to sing from the same sheet so it’s increasingly likely. Certainly colder than the 10 degrees that has been suggested and lots of potential for snow


Everybody down to the Amex to dig the snow off the pitch :clap2:

CW7coIUWsAQWuy1.jpg
 


edna krabappel

Well-known member
NSC Licker Extraordinaire
Jul 7, 2003
47,215
Imagine playing a game in these conditions now :lol:

1084d9d8e03c47e0c3e404c6b8505f37.jpg
 

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,822
Worthing
Look, I don't know what all these pictures and graphs mean, so can somebody just tell me please: at what point should I dig out the snow boots and start getting excited?

Ok, my interpretation based upon all the model data.

Tomorrow we'll see some rain pushing West to East as the last of the frontal feature that's in the West at the moment passes through. With a ridge of high pressure from the Azores clode by tomorrow will be the mildest day of the week, peaking at 11C in Sussex with a SW wind over us.

Tuesday will be a quiet day, with a max of about 9 or perhaps 10C and perhaps a light rain shower in a NW breeze.

Wednesday onwards sees us picking up a gentle flow from the East, and day time temps will drop off to about 7c by which will feel cold as the dew point will have dropped to around 0c as modified continental air starts to arrive in a keen NE breeze. A day of clear skies and bright sunshine.

Thursday sees colder air, with dew points -3C arrive and day time temps of 5C in an easterly breeze. We're still not in the really cold air, but with DPs at about -4 to -5C it will be a day that starts clear and sunny, but with some cloud later. An frost is possible overnight into Friday.

Friday sees temps perhaps half a degree lower, so 4C or 5C on the coast, with colder air over us in a direct easterly. Dew points are still low at -5C with still an outside chance of light showers of sleet or snow in Kent / East Sussex.

Overnight into Saturday will probably see the start of the colder air arriving here, with dew points dropping to -7c widely across the region. An overnight frost will herald a crisp, cold day, with an easterly breeze and max temps of 2 or 3C here, followed by a cold night.

Sunday is when the really cold air looks like arriving, with -9 to -10C dew points widely, and max temps of 2c in the places to the West, but nearer 0c towards Kent in a keen easterly. There is also a early signal that we might see some snow showers across the SE corner later on Sunday and overnight. Temps possibly as low as -4C inland overnight.

Monday onwards I will leave for now, as the details will change, but in general I'd suggest the most likely outcome is day time max temps of 1 to 2C, with some places at or below freezing. We will see an increasing chance of snow either from showers, or depending on synoptic details, longer periods of snow at times. Night time temps will be well below freezing where we see clear skies and close to freezing under any cloud / snow in a NE / E wind.

Forecasting snowfall is pointless at this range, as the best falls often come from small scale features that arise at short range, so let's just say there's potential.

I would see this cold spell last at least 3 or 4 days, but it could extend longer.
 

Peteinblack

Well-known member
NSC Licker Extraordinaire
Jun 3, 2004
3,568
Bath, Somerset.
Ok, my interpretation based upon all the model data.

Tomorrow we'll see some rain pushing West to East as the last of the frontal feature that's in the West at the moment passes through. With a ridge of high pressure from the Azores clode by tomorrow will be the mildest day of the week, peaking at 11C in Sussex with a SW wind over us.

Tuesday will be a quiet day, with a max of about 9 or perhaps 10C and perhaps a light rain shower in a NW breeze.

Wednesday onwards sees us picking up a gentle flow from the East, and day time temps will drop off to about 7c by which will feel cold as the dew point will have dropped to around 0c as modified continental air starts to arrive in a keen NE breeze. A day of clear skies and bright sunshine.

Thursday sees colder air, with dew points -3C arrive and day time temps of 5C in an easterly breeze. We're still not in the really cold air, but with DPs at about -4 to -5C it will be a day that starts clear and sunny, but with some cloud later. An frost is possible overnight into Friday.

Friday sees temps perhaps half a degree lower, so 4C or 5C on the coast, with colder air over us in a direct easterly. Dew points are still low at -5C with still an outside chance of light showers of sleet or snow in Kent / East Sussex.

Overnight into Saturday will probably see the start of the colder air arriving here, with dew points dropping to -7c widely across the region. An overnight frost will herald a crisp, cold day, with an easterly breeze and max temps of 2 or 3C here, followed by a cold night.

Sunday is when the really cold air looks like arriving, with -9 to -10C dew points widely, and max temps of 2c in the places to the West, but nearer 0c towards Kent in a keen easterly. There is also a early signal that we might see some snow showers across the SE corner later on Sunday and overnight. Temps possibly as low as -4C inland overnight.

Monday onwards I will leave for now, as the details will change, but in general I'd suggest the most likely outcome is day time max temps of 1 to 2C, with some places at or below freezing. We will see an increasing chance of snow either from showers, or depending on synoptic details, longer periods of snow at times. Night time temps will be well below freezing where we see clear skies and close to freezing under any cloud / snow in a NE / E wind.


Forecasting snowfall is pointless at this range, as the best falls often come from small scale features that arise at short range, so let's just say there's potential.

I would see this cold spell last at least 3 or 4 days, but it could extend longer.

:rave::rave::rave::rave::rave::rave::rave::rave::rave::rave::rave::rave::rave::rave:
 


vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
27,853
Bless them, they would get ice burns. Can't possibly play in such conditions

Can you imagine the likes of Ronaldo playing his normal game on that surface ? he's be bruised and cut to pieces after that.
 


Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Licker Extraordinaire
Aug 8, 2005
26,421
Ok, my interpretation based upon all the model data.

Tomorrow we'll see some rain pushing West to East as the last of the frontal feature that's in the West at the moment passes through. With a ridge of high pressure from the Azores clode by tomorrow will be the mildest day of the week, peaking at 11C in Sussex with a SW wind over us.

Tuesday will be a quiet day, with a max of about 9 or perhaps 10C and perhaps a light rain shower in a NW breeze.

Wednesday onwards sees us picking up a gentle flow from the East, and day time temps will drop off to about 7c by which will feel cold as the dew point will have dropped to around 0c as modified continental air starts to arrive in a keen NE breeze. A day of clear skies and bright sunshine.

Thursday sees colder air, with dew points -3C arrive and day time temps of 5C in an easterly breeze. We're still not in the really cold air, but with DPs at about -4 to -5C it will be a day that starts clear and sunny, but with some cloud later. An frost is possible overnight into Friday.

Friday sees temps perhaps half a degree lower, so 4C or 5C on the coast, with colder air over us in a direct easterly. Dew points are still low at -5C with still an outside chance of light showers of sleet or snow in Kent / East Sussex.

Overnight into Saturday will probably see the start of the colder air arriving here, with dew points dropping to -7c widely across the region. An overnight frost will herald a crisp, cold day, with an easterly breeze and max temps of 2 or 3C here, followed by a cold night.

Sunday is when the really cold air looks like arriving, with -9 to -10C dew points widely, and max temps of 2c in the places to the West, but nearer 0c towards Kent in a keen easterly. There is also a early signal that we might see some snow showers across the SE corner later on Sunday and overnight. Temps possibly as low as -4C inland overnight.

Monday onwards I will leave for now, as the details will change, but in general I'd suggest the most likely outcome is day time max temps of 1 to 2C, with some places at or below freezing. We will see an increasing chance of snow either from showers, or depending on synoptic details, longer periods of snow at times. Night time temps will be well below freezing where we see clear skies and close to freezing under any cloud / snow in a NE / E wind.

Forecasting snowfall is pointless at this range, as the best falls often come from small scale features that arise at short range, so let's just say there's potential.

I would see this cold spell last at least 3 or 4 days, but it could extend longer.

This is a great summary. Any chance of a daily update for the next few days so we can see how this is developing?
 

casbom

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,581
Ok, my interpretation based upon all the model data.

Tomorrow we'll see some rain pushing West to East as the last of the frontal feature that's in the West at the moment passes through. With a ridge of high pressure from the Azores clode by tomorrow will be the mildest day of the week, peaking at 11C in Sussex with a SW wind over us.

Tuesday will be a quiet day, with a max of about 9 or perhaps 10C and perhaps a light rain shower in a NW breeze.

Wednesday onwards sees us picking up a gentle flow from the East, and day time temps will drop off to about 7c by which will feel cold as the dew point will have dropped to around 0c as modified continental air starts to arrive in a keen NE breeze. A day of clear skies and bright sunshine.

Thursday sees colder air, with dew points -3C arrive and day time temps of 5C in an easterly breeze. We're still not in the really cold air, but with DPs at about -4 to -5C it will be a day that starts clear and sunny, but with some cloud later. An frost is possible overnight into Friday.

Friday sees temps perhaps half a degree lower, so 4C or 5C on the coast, with colder air over us in a direct easterly. Dew points are still low at -5C with still an outside chance of light showers of sleet or snow in Kent / East Sussex.

Overnight into Saturday will probably see the start of the colder air arriving here, with dew points dropping to -7c widely across the region. An overnight frost will herald a crisp, cold day, with an easterly breeze and max temps of 2 or 3C here, followed by a cold night.

Sunday is when the really cold air looks like arriving, with -9 to -10C dew points widely, and max temps of 2c in the places to the West, but nearer 0c towards Kent in a keen easterly. There is also a early signal that we might see some snow showers across the SE corner later on Sunday and overnight. Temps possibly as low as -4C inland overnight.

Monday onwards I will leave for now, as the details will change, but in general I'd suggest the most likely outcome is day time max temps of 1 to 2C, with some places at or below freezing. We will see an increasing chance of snow either from showers, or depending on synoptic details, longer periods of snow at times. Night time temps will be well below freezing where we see clear skies and close to freezing under any cloud / snow in a NE / E wind.

Forecasting snowfall is pointless at this range, as the best falls often come from small scale features that arise at short range, so let's just say there's potential.

I would see this cold spell last at least 3 or 4 days, but it could extend longer.

Haha! You enjoyed writing that didn’t you! ��
 

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,530
Back in Sussex
Ok, my interpretation based upon all the model data.

Tomorrow we'll see some rain pushing West to East as the last of the frontal feature that's in the West at the moment passes through. With a ridge of high pressure from the Azores clode by tomorrow will be the mildest day of the week, peaking at 11C in Sussex with a SW wind over us.

Tuesday will be a quiet day, with a max of about 9 or perhaps 10C and perhaps a light rain shower in a NW breeze.

Wednesday onwards sees us picking up a gentle flow from the East, and day time temps will drop off to about 7c by which will feel cold as the dew point will have dropped to around 0c as modified continental air starts to arrive in a keen NE breeze. A day of clear skies and bright sunshine.

Thursday sees colder air, with dew points -3C arrive and day time temps of 5C in an easterly breeze. We're still not in the really cold air, but with DPs at about -4 to -5C it will be a day that starts clear and sunny, but with some cloud later. An frost is possible overnight into Friday.

Friday sees temps perhaps half a degree lower, so 4C or 5C on the coast, with colder air over us in a direct easterly. Dew points are still low at -5C with still an outside chance of light showers of sleet or snow in Kent / East Sussex.

Overnight into Saturday will probably see the start of the colder air arriving here, with dew points dropping to -7c widely across the region. An overnight frost will herald a crisp, cold day, with an easterly breeze and max temps of 2 or 3C here, followed by a cold night.

Sunday is when the really cold air looks like arriving, with -9 to -10C dew points widely, and max temps of 2c in the places to the West, but nearer 0c towards Kent in a keen easterly. There is also a early signal that we might see some snow showers across the SE corner later on Sunday and overnight. Temps possibly as low as -4C inland overnight.

Monday onwards I will leave for now, as the details will change, but in general I'd suggest the most likely outcome is day time max temps of 1 to 2C, with some places at or below freezing. We will see an increasing chance of snow either from showers, or depending on synoptic details, longer periods of snow at times. Night time temps will be well below freezing where we see clear skies and close to freezing under any cloud / snow in a NE / E wind.

Forecasting snowfall is pointless at this range, as the best falls often come from small scale features that arise at short range, so let's just say there's potential.

I would see this cold spell last at least 3 or 4 days, but it could extend longer.

Reasonable enough high level summary. Any chance of some detail though?
 

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,822
Worthing


Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Licker Extraordinaire
Aug 8, 2005
26,421
Seems to be firming up on a decent snow event Monday to Wednesday next week. Fingers crossed.
 

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,822
Worthing
Seems to be firming up on a decent snow event Monday to Wednesday next week. Fingers crossed.

The only wrinkle at this range is the ECM Op run which keeps the high pressure too far south, so the worst / best of the cold air goes to our south. Need to check where on the ensemble set this run sits to understand its significance.
 

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