[Albion] To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker - 2018-19 Game 36 update - 5 below

Giraffe · Oct 22, 2018

Last season there was a lot of discussion about the 40 point measure being too high, and I accept that in most seasons it is now too high, but the guide still works. However this season it seems to me the bottom three are very likely to be further adrift than last season. Can't see Cardiff or Huddersfield getting to much more than 30 points this season, and Newcastle may struggle too.

Goldstone1976 · Oct 22, 2018

Giraffe said:
Last season there was a lot of discussion about the 40 point measure being too high, and I accept that in most seasons it is now too high, but the guide still works. However this season it seems to me the bottom three are very likely to be further adrift than last season. Can't see Cardiff or Huddersfield getting to much more than 30 points this season, and Newcastle may struggle too.

Yep - originally, I was in the “let’s make it 36 points” camp, but the way you’ve constructed how the model works is very easy to understand and provides consistency season on season. I’ve just reset my expectations to it being effectively a “relatively comfortable staying up” tracker, which has the added benefit of providing a bit of a cushion too.

It ain’t bust - no need to fix it.

Oh - and the Palace tracker - *snigger*

Giraffe · Oct 22, 2018

Goldstone1976 said:
Yep - originally, I was in the “let’s make it 36 points” camp, but the way you’ve constructed how the model works is very easy to understand and provides consistency season on season. I’ve just reset my expectations to it being effectively a “relatively comfortable staying up” tracker, which has the added benefit of providing a bit of a cushion too.

It ain’t bust - no need to fix it.

Oh - and the Palace tracker - *snigger*

I think that's right. It's also easy to say 40 because if you're six points behind that like some clubs are

then it's effectively a prediction of 34 points by the end of the season against our prediction of 42. You can make your own mind up whether that is enough. I fear Palace need to drop off further yet, because there are at least three other teams even worse than that I suspect.

dazzer6666 · Oct 22, 2018

Giraffe said:
Last season there was a lot of discussion about the 40 point measure being too high, and I accept that in most seasons it is now too high, but the guide still works. However this season it seems to me the bottom three are very likely to be further adrift than last season. Can't see Cardiff or Huddersfield getting to much more than 30 points this season, and Newcastle may struggle too.

Think it was always seen as 40 when there were 21 teams.......38 is always likely to be enough now, and it'll probably be a few less than that. Agree re Cardiff and Hudds (I expect both to be under 30 at the end of the season), and there seem to be more teams struggling this season than last. Could see this season developing into a top 6/middle 8/bottom 6 split...........

Giraffe · Oct 22, 2018

dazzer6666 said:
Could see this season developing into a top 6/middle 8/bottom 6 split...........

Agreed, and I like to think we are fighting to be as high as possible in Premier League 2 rather than Premier League 3

Gary Leeds · Oct 22, 2018

Goldstone1976 said:
Oh - and the Palace tracker - *snigger*

The trouble with the Palace tracker is for the next few games they cannot fall any further behind the predicted line so anything they get is bonus points. This is when they are most dangerous normally

hans kraay fan club · Oct 22, 2018

Goldstone1976 said:
Oh - and the Palace tracker - *snigger*

That's one slight tinge of disappointment, regarding their next three matches. They are predicted ZERO points, which in itself is 'good', but it means that we won't get to see them fall any further 'BEHIND'.

Giraffe · Oct 22, 2018

Gary Leeds said:
The trouble with the Palace tracker is for the next few games they cannot fall any further behind the predicted line so anything they get is bonus points. This is when they are most dangerous normally

hans kraay fan club said:
That's one slight tinge of disappointment, regarding their next three matches. They are predicted ZERO points, which in itself is 'good', but it means that we won't get to see them fall any further 'BEHIND'.

Agreed and they do tend to do it against the big sides, particularly at home. I'd fancy them against Arsenal sadly.

Although looking at the kick off times Arsenal is 1.30pm on a Sunday. They will struggle to get an atmosphere going for that. The others are 3pm on Saturday apart from Spurs at home at 5.30pm. That gives them the edge in that game I'd say. Always think they benefit from being under the lights at Selhurst in these "big" games.

Imagine if they lost them all though...

Stat Brother · Oct 22, 2018

Giraffe said:
Spurs at home at 5.30pm. That gives them the edge in that game I'd say. Always think they benefit from being under the lights at Selhurst in these "big" games.

I take it the black clan Always will come out of exile for this one.

Jimmy Grimble · Oct 22, 2018

Giraffe said:
Agreed and they do tend to do it against the big sides, particularly at home. I'd fancy them against Arsenal sadly.

Although looking at the kick off times Arsenal is 1.30pm on a Sunday. They will struggle to get an atmosphere going for that. The others are 3pm on Saturday apart from Spurs at home at 5.30pm. That gives them the edge in that game I'd say. Always think they benefit from being under the lights at Selhurst in these "big" games.

Imagine if they lost them all though...

I may be wrong here, but pretty sure Palace got beat by United and Arsenal in 'big' games under the lights last year and lost all their other games against the top 6 bar one. Don't fall for the media myth.

spence · Oct 22, 2018

Stolen from Cardiff City forum which i found interesting.............

9 Games...On Course For Lowest Ever Points Needed To Survive

Amazingly after 9 games, there's never been a bigger divide in the Premiership as there is this season!

The bottom 8 this year have a total of 43 points after 9 games. The previous 10 year's average after 9 games for the bottom 8 is 61.4 points!

Total Points by bottom 8 after 9 games:
18/19 - 43
17/18 - 61
16/17 - 60
15/16 - 61
14/15 - 67
13/14 - 61
12/13 - 51
11/12 - 59
10/11 - 69
09/10 - 62
08/09 - 63

Even when West Brom survived with 34 points, that year the bottom 8 had 57 points after 9 games.

If the big 6 continue to beat everybody else, I don't even think we'll need 34 points to survive this year. How many points do you think we'll need?

Perkino · Oct 22, 2018

10 wins has been enough for almost every team in the last 10 years. With the other 13 sides around us in the league containing so many poor teams I'm confident we will be clear

GT49er · Oct 22, 2018

spence said:
Stolen from Cardiff City forum which i found interesting.............

9 Games...On Course For Lowest Ever Points Needed To Survive

Amazingly after 9 games, there's never been a bigger divide in the Premiership as there is this season!

The bottom 8 this year have a total of 43 points after 9 games. The previous 10 year's average after 9 games for the bottom 8 is 61.4 points!

Interesting stat - wonder if it will persist until the end of the season? Teams that look dead and buried quite often have a surge at some point which rescues them - Palace last season, for example.

Perkino · Oct 22, 2018

The teams in danger are often those who fade after January and struggle to get over the line. A lot more football still to be played

dazzer6666 · Oct 22, 2018

Perkino said:
10 wins has been enough for almost every team in the last 10 years. With the other 13 sides around us in the league containing so many poor teams I'm confident we will be clear

Definitely. Bolton were the last to drop with 10 wins in 2011/12 - but they only had 6 draws. Even that season, Villa stayed up with just 7 wins (and 17 draws). Think it'll be maybe 35 to stay up this season with a cluster of teams between 30-38....it'll be tight for the third spot.

Goldstone1976 · Oct 22, 2018

dazzer6666 said:
Definitely. Bolton were the last to drop with 10 wins in 2011/12 - but they only had 6 draws. Even that season, Villa stayed up with just 7 wins (and 17 draws). Think it'll be maybe 35 to stay up this season with a cluster of teams between 30-38....it'll be tight for the third spot.

That’s how I see it too.

dwayne · Oct 22, 2018

GT49er said:
Interesting stat - wonder if it will persist until the end of the season? Teams that look dead and buried quite often have a surge at some point which rescues them - Palace last season, for example.

Yes having watched a few hudds and Cardiff games they certainly don't look any worse than the other teams at the bottom. Thought hudds played really well against Liverpool and should have had a draw. Similarly Newcastle played well against utd and looked ok Vs us.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

LlcoolJ · Oct 22, 2018

Fulham are going to have to stop shipping an average of 2.8 goals a game or they are screwed. £100m+ spent and they have no defence.

Tim Over Whelmed · Oct 22, 2018

We have 27.5% of the points we need (based on 40) after 23.68% of the games played, let's just keep the first percentage higher than the second percentage and life will be OK!

If we are saying 34 is the target (which I seriously doubt) than we have 32.4%.

dazzer6666 · Oct 22, 2018

LlcoolJ said:
Fulham are going to have to stop shipping an average of 2.8 goals a game or they are screwed. £100m+ spent and they have no defence.

They were talking about this on the radio this morning (not sure who it was,wasn't really concentrating), but the essence of the discussion was there are a couple of obvious issues - they keep changing the back four so it's unsettled, and tactically they are too gung-ho for a newly promoted team and have been found out very quickly.

This is in the Guardian today :

1) Fulham’s defensive record borders on embarrassing
On the eve of the new season Slavisa Jokanovic said Fulham “don’t have to change much but we need to be intelligent. We need to grow up.” Two months down the line and either Jokanovic underestimated how much Fulham needed to adapt to be ready for the Premier League or his players are not being as smart as he had hoped. Whatever the answer, Fulham did not spend more than £100m in the summer to be languishing in the relegation zone with one win from nine games and a defensive record that is in danger of becoming an embarrassment. Alarm bells should be ringing after Cardiff, who had scored only four times in their opening eight games, doubled their tally for the season against Jokanovic’s porous team. As things stand, Fulham are on course to concede more than 100 goals this season. They need to wise up fast.

https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...ue-10-talking-points-from-the-weekends-action

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[Albion] To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker - 2018-19 Game 36 update - 5 below

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