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General Election 2017



kevo

Well-known member
Mar 8, 2008
9,094
In 2010 the Tory/LibDem coalition had a good working majority but this one is much more fragile. I just can't see them getting any of their more controversial measures through (school lunches, triple lock, etc). I can therefore see them calling a new election in a few months - probably with a new Tory leader.

They could well lose a couple of by-elections, too. They are lucky the SNP collapsed in Scotland and the SDLP in Northern Ireland.
 




Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,887
hassocks
As you heard, this can't really work and he does know what he's talking about. When The Stormont talks broke down a while back, she didn't even go to Northern Ireland to mediate as her predecessors would have. I'm not even sure she's been there as PM.


I assume they are after a soft Brexit as well? Freedom of movement at least
 


Blackadder

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 6, 2003
16,077
Haywards Heath
Personally, I blame the Russians.
If they had cared about rigging our election as much as they (allegedly) cared about the US one we would now have a clear majority, and none of the soul-destroying nonsense we will all have to endure for the next 6 months to 5 years

UK Politics in turmoil? Europe not having a clue what's going on regarding Brexit?

From Russia's point of view, what's not to like?
 


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,719
Back in Sussex
The Next PM market on Betfair has re-opened. I'm guessing, given the rules...

"Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."

...that they do not determine that Theresa May has formed a government yet, and the odds suggest at least a small amount of doubt that she will as May is currently 1/8. When they suspended the market earlier she was 1/50.

Can anyone see her either having a change of heart or the Tory Party kicking her out straight away?
 


Scotchegg

Well-known member
Sep 1, 2014
313
Brighton
The Next PM market on Betfair has re-opened. I'm guessing, given the rules...

"Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."

...that they do not determine that Theresa May has formed a government yet, and the odds suggest at least a small amount of doubt that she will as May is currently 1/8. When they suspended the market earlier she was 1/50.

Can anyone see her either having a change of heart or the Tory Party kicking her out straight away?

It's pretty strange, I can't see how the party will put up with her. Following the campaigns, there were rumbles before the election and some of those interviews with tories last night it seemed they were calling for her head to me, some were less than subtle and they were all distancing themselves from her and her campaign. I just can't see how she can hang on with that lot behind her. They're going to make her life very difficult if she does stay and that is rubbish for all of us.
 




hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,294
Chandlers Ford
The Next PM market on Betfair has re-opened. I'm guessing, given the rules...

"Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."

...that they do not determine that Theresa May has formed a government yet, and the odds suggest at least a small amount of doubt that she will as May is currently 1/8. When they suspended the market earlier she was 1/50.

Can anyone see her either having a change of heart or the Tory Party kicking her out straight away?

A change of heart seems unlikely, given the tone of her 'victory' speech, but I'd not be willing to take those odds, given that she may not have the choice.
 




studio150

Well-known member
Jul 30, 2011
29,611
On the Border
From a Mrs May election speech

Britain is about to enter into the most important negotiations of my lifetime. They begin just eleven days after polling day. And the European Union is already adopting an aggressive negotiating position.

That’s why, now more than ever, Britain needs a strong government and a strong Prime Minister capable of standing up to Brussels. Your vote is more important than ever. Because every vote for me in this election will – if I’m returned as Prime Minister – strengthen my hand in the negotiations that are about to start. But if you don’t vote at this election – and if you don’t vote for me in this election – you risk sleepwalking into the very real danger that Jeremy Corbyn will find himself in the hotseat, in the negotiating chair, on your behalf. I only have to lose six seats in this election for that to happen. And the consequences for Britain, if that did happen, would be dire.

A weak and unstable Prime Minister, propped up by the Liberal Democrats and the SNP. A coalition of chaos, unable and unwilling to get the best deal for Britain. Consisting of political parties who disagree with Brexit and want to unpick the referendum result.

Don’t let them steal your votes in last year’s referendum. Don’t let them make a mess of these negotiations. Don’t sleepwalk into that danger. Because what last night’s television debate brought home in Technicolor was that only we have the will – and the plan – to make a success of Brexit.



Whoops, and for some reason Mrs May and her weak and wobbly minority Government still believe they can get the best deal for Britain,

The first PMQ should be a blockbuster
 






Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
16,646
Fiveways
The Next PM market on Betfair has re-opened. I'm guessing, given the rules...

"Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."

...that they do not determine that Theresa May has formed a government yet, and the odds suggest at least a small amount of doubt that she will as May is currently 1/8. When they suspended the market earlier she was 1/50.

Can anyone see her either having a change of heart or the Tory Party kicking her out straight away?

The Tory Party are ruthless with leaders (unlike Labour) and the 1922 Committee are key players in such events, but in the short-term at least, May will stay. With Brexit negotiations starting in ten days time, they (May, 1922, MPs and the party more widely) need to focus. We've had to endure two campaigns as a result of internal party interests and the public won't look any more favourably in them subjecting them to further requirements. They've made their bed, and will have to sleep in it. The real problem will start once the details of the Brexit negotiations start coming out, with the Tories themselves (plus maybe the DUP) splitting or being precariously kept together, and the right-wing press raging rampant. Quite simply, the Brexit deal will be a lot worse than the pup we've been sold, and that's when the fan and the faeces will have their messy meeting.
 


FloatLeft

Well-known member
Jun 12, 2012
1,603
or just more private

In Lewes, every second window has a 'Vote Lib Dem' banner and there is a smattering of Green Party and Labour banners too. Not a single blue window, yet the Tories win again.

The love that dare not speak its name.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 




Publius Ovidius

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
46,019
at home
I know this one as I looked it up the other day. It's not an easy one to answer because it's yes and no.

In 1868, Gladstone stood in two seats (as you could then) and won one and lost the other ... so he could still be PM.

There was a near miss too. In 1935, McDonald resigned as PM and handed over to Baldwin (but stayed in cabinet), he then lost his seat at the GE held a few months later.

It's happened in other countries though: to John Howard in Australia just a few years ago

isn't that the same where someone sits in the Lords and is in the government like the attorney general guy in Blair's government?

I didnt think you had to be an MP to sit in government so long as you had a seat in eiither house?
 


ManOfSussex

We wunt be druv
Apr 11, 2016
14,745
Rape of Hastings, Sussex
I assume they are after a soft Brexit as well? Freedom of movement at least

Yeah, they want an open border and free movement across it and to fully uphold The Good Friday Agreement. As I said in an earlier post, it's interesting to note Arlene Foster's tone on working together with The Tories is somewhat different to May's.
 






goldstone

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
7,115
Your leader is perceived as a modern day Jesus (and even shares his initials). You manage to mobilise millions of disaffected young people to come out and vote for him (by promising all the free things). Your opponent is woeful and runs what must be the worst campaign in UK political history. Yet despite all that, you finish a distant second/last in a two horse race.

If I were in that position, I'd probably be trying to pretend I was some sort of victor too.

Rather well said!

There was a post earlier (can't find it now) celebrating the fact that Brighton had run the Tories out of town. The good news is of course that the rest of Sussex has retained its senses and remained blue. Not surprising that Brighton has rejected the Conservatives with the city full of students who will support any party that offers them lots of free stuff withhout any concern for the consequencies. Free tuition? I'll vote for that. No iota of concern as to whence the money cometh. As a taxpayer I actually do not particularly want to finance the further education of every student waster who would rather study for three years than get a job. Then, having made themselves virtually unemployable by covering their bodies with tattoos and piercings, they complain that they cannot find work and blame the government!

Theresa May really shot herself in the foot with this fiasco. In future please please let's have political campaigns focussed more on the party than the leader.
 


Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,336
Uffern
isn't that the same where someone sits in the Lords and is in the government like the attorney general guy in Blair's government?

I didnt think you had to be an MP to sit in government so long as you had a seat in eiither house?

You don't have to be an MP but if you're not, you have to be a peer - Gladstone wasn't a peer so he had to retain one of his seats
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,170
Goldstone
In 2010 the Tory/LibDem coalition had a good working majority but this one is much more fragile. I just can't see them getting any of their more controversial measures through (school lunches, triple lock, etc). I can therefore see them calling a new election in a few months - probably with a new Tory leader.
Maybe they won't be able to do much of their manifesto, but they will be able to get on with Brexit, and that's more important. Do we need another election getting in the way of that, with no guarantee that we won't have another hung parliament?
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,170
Goldstone
The Next PM market on Betfair has re-opened. I'm guessing, given the rules...

"Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom when the first government is formed after the next UK general election. This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."

...that they do not determine that Theresa May has formed a government yet, and the odds suggest at least a small amount of doubt that she will as May is currently 1/8. When they suspended the market earlier she was 1/50.

Can anyone see her either having a change of heart or the Tory Party kicking her out straight away?
It says 'after the next UK general election'. I'd need that wording changed if I was betting on yesterday's election.
 


studio150

Well-known member
Jul 30, 2011
29,611
On the Border
Rather well said!

There was a post earlier (can't find it now) celebrating the fact that Brighton had run the Tories out of town. The good news is of course that the rest of Sussex has retained its senses and remained blue

Really, your blue glasses are hiding the true position. I know I stayed up all night to watch the result so may have been a little tired but did the Lib Dems not gain Eastbourne?

It must have been all the OAPs not liking the dementia tax
 


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