Do you think the JOCKS will vote YES ?

beorhthelm · Sep 17, 2014

earlier polls indicated double digit "dont know" which is still 8-9%. some of the recent published polls, particularly the one that said Yes was in the lead and caused panic, hasnt counted these. i reckon this group could fall largely behind the No, instead of expected proportional split.

sten_super · Sep 17, 2014

Betfair (their own exchange, not the punter-to-punter market) have paid out on a 'No' vote apparently.

seagullsovergrimsby · Sep 17, 2014

Labour is throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the Better Together campaign in Glasgow today with Lord Bassam of Brighton out on the streets :lol:

Iggle Piggle · Sep 17, 2014

Betfair have paid out already (It's crappy Sportsbook, not the exchange)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...t-early-on-Scottish-independence-No-vote.html

seagullsovergrimsby · Sep 17, 2014

beorhthelm said:
earlier polls indicated double digit "dont know" which is still 8-9%. some of the recent published polls, particularly the one that said Yes was in the lead and caused panic, hasnt counted these. i reckon this group could fall largely behind the No, instead of expected proportional split.

What nobody knows until tomorrow is how many of the "don't knows" will still be undecided and abstain from voting.

dingodan · Sep 17, 2014

Iggle Piggle said:
Betfair have paid out already (It's crappy Sportsbook, not the exchange)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...t-early-on-Scottish-independence-No-vote.html

Are they hoping for a self fulfilling prophecy?

If it's announced that there is "paying out" on a No vote, then that means the No side has won already right? No need to bother voting Yes then eh?

It's kind of like when Bush "won" the U.S. presidency in 2000. If you present something with enough certainty, it will become true. Even if it isn't.

dingodan · Sep 17, 2014

Interesting analysis of that payout in the comments:

This is a classic double bluff akin to the operations of big market speculators.

Paying this small amount out now will drag the greater fools into thinking the No has already won and so cause a deluge of No bets with very short odds and people will think they will get something for nothing..
and make them afraid of betting YES.
Balance the books and odds more in favor of Betfair and has rightly been pointed out Betfair work on the mathematics of gaining maximum profit.

They could not give a flying F about the result except insofar as it applies to their balance sheet

Which means only only one thing.

Betfair knows YES will win and are doing it purely to cut potential losses and increase profits .
I'm putting a big bet on the YES vote at Betfair right now.
Because the maths only adds up with a YES win for Betfair. so get the dummys to fall for the free money trick.
It aint gonna happen ,, you are not going to go to Betfair even with odds at 100 /1 on and get paid out even a measly quid per 100 down .

Some people are so dumb

Iggle Piggle · Sep 17, 2014

dingodan said:
Are they hoping for a self fulfilling prophecy?

If it's announced that there is "paying out" on a No vote, then that means the No side has won already right? No need to bother voting Yes then eh?

It's kind of like when Bush "won" the U.S. presidency in 2000. If you present something with enough certainty, it will become true. Even if it isn't.

Betfair make a huge song and dance that thier exchange prices are more accurate than the polls. The last Amercian election is often cited as a good example whereby the polls showed a contraction of Obama's lead but the market stayed put and was proved right. All this is about is Betfair getting some free publicity for thier exchange and the noddy sportsbook but one day they will get it wrong - law of averages. I also question that its a multi million payout. Anyone with any sense would have lumped on the exchange prices which were higher if they were having a big bet (notwithstanding they've already paid out on the sportsbook of course). Chances are it's a few quid dressed up as millions.

In any case, The latest polls are 52% no with a 2% margin of error, the implied percentage on the exchange is therefore bang on the money (80%) whatever data you use.

sparkie · Sep 17, 2014

It will be a disaster if Scotland vote Yes, but at the same time it is their choice and if so, then so be it.

If Cameron is the PM who loses Scotland, then surely he'll have to go, and go soon.

beorhthelm · Sep 17, 2014

dingodan said:
Interesting analysis of that payout in the comments:

this would only work if they are still taking bets.. if Betfair are paying out i'd assume they've closed the book.

on the self fulfilling prophecy, its known that people like to back the winning side, so undecided voters can be swayed by news its gone one way, voting for the winner or not turning out to vote against.

Iggle Piggle · Sep 17, 2014

beorhthelm said:
this would only work if they are still taking bets.. if Betfair are paying out i'd assume they've closed the book.

They paid out on all bets before 16th Sept I think

You can still back the No at 1/5 (1.20) on Sportsbook or 1.22 on the exchange

8ace · Sep 17, 2014

Iggle Piggle said:
Betfair have paid out already (It's crappy Sportsbook, not the exchange)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...t-early-on-Scottish-independence-No-vote.html

The noddy sportsbook restricted me the other day :angry:

Iggle Piggle · Sep 17, 2014

8ace said:
The noddy sportsbook restricted me the other day

My Personal favourite was Bet Fred who restricted me within 2 losing bets to SP.

If your not restricted with Boylesports, Skybet or Coral your doing it wrong.

dingodan · Sep 17, 2014

beorhthelm said:
on the self fulfilling prophecy, its known that people like to back the winning side, so undecided voters can be swayed by news its gone one way, voting for the winner or not turning out to vote against.

Precisely.

Pavilionaire · Sep 17, 2014

Is anyone else staggered that you can still get odds of between 3/1 and 4/1 on a YES vote? No is between 1/4 and 1/5.

It's almost worth putting £50 on the YES vote, then if the union is fvcked you can at least spend the weekend getting sh1tfaced for free.

dingodan · Sep 17, 2014

Iggle Piggle said:
I also question that its a multi million payout. Anyone with any sense would have lumped on the exchange prices which were higher if they were having a big bet (notwithstanding they've already paid out on the sportsbook of course). Chances are it's a few quid dressed up as millions.

"Sportsbook is expected to provide about 9 per cent of Betfair's revenue this year, against 62 per cent from exchange. For a single novelty sportsbook market, the cost to the company of paying out early will be somewhere between negligible and nil." - Financial Times columnist Bryce Elder.

Also,

The Bureau’s investigation into Tory party funding has revealed that, in addition to extensive donations from the City, the party has received substantial contributions from Edward Wray, co-founder of Betfair, and aviation tycoon Michael Bishop among others.

http://www.thebureauinvestigates.co...servative-donors-from-beyond-the-square-mile/

Just saying

Danny-Boy · Sep 17, 2014

Pavilionaire said:
Is anyone else staggered that you can still get odds of between 3/1 and 4/1 on a YES vote? No is between 1/4 and 1/5.

It's almost worth putting £50 on the YES vote, then if the union is fvcked you can at least spend the weekend getting sh1tfaced for free.

Agree, if I had £50 to waste. Do they give odds on a tie? Bet there's a small print which says:

"In the event that the votes counted are equal, the Leader of the Scottish Parliament will have a casting vote"..

Seagull1989 · Sep 17, 2014

Just saw Gordon Brown give a really passionate speech on BBC news. I have never seen him like that, full of emotion!

dingodan · Sep 17, 2014

Seagull1989 said:
Just saw Gordon Brown give a really passionate speech on BBC news. I have never seen him like that, full of emotion!

Sounds revolting.

seagullsovergrimsby · Sep 17, 2014

dingodan said:
"Sportsbook is expected to provide about 9 per cent of Betfair's revenue this year, against 62 per cent from exchange. For a single novelty sportsbook market, the cost to the company of paying out early will be somewhere between negligible and nil." - Financial Times columnist Bryce Elder.

Also,

http://www.thebureauinvestigates.co...servative-donors-from-beyond-the-square-mile/

Just saying

I read this morning that the sportsbook payout was only a six figure sum , peanuts for Betfair but worth much much more to Better Together as a publicity stunt.

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