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The Newark By Election - June 5th



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Well so far!
 


Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,324
Uffern
For once I'm in full agreement with HB&B: this is a massive by-election. We can take it for granted that UKIP will win but the party really has to record a huge victory - anything else would mean talk of holding balance of power as meaningless. And Tories have to hang on to second, anything else spells trouble for them
 


crasher

New member
Jul 8, 2003
2,764
Sussex
For once I'm in full agreement with HB&B: this is a massive by-election. We can take it for granted that UKIP will win but the party really has to record a huge victory - anything else would mean talk of holding balance of power as meaningless. And Tories have to hang on to second, anything else spells trouble for them

I'm not sure a UKIP win is a sure thing is it? If it was, Farage would have stood there. Think it will be very close - with them, Tories and Labour all in with a shout.
 


Beach Hut

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 5, 2003
71,906
Living In a Box
I'm not sure a UKIP win is a sure thing is it? If it was, Farage would have stood there. Think it will be very close - with them, Tories and Labour all in with a shout.

Farage rejected the opportunity to stand so clearly he has doubts ?
 


Paddy B

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
2,084
Horsham
For once I'm in full agreement with HB&B: this is a massive by-election. We can take it for granted that UKIP will win but the party really has to record a huge victory - anything else would mean talk of holding balance of power as meaningless. And Tories have to hang on to second, anything else spells trouble for them

That is a massive assumption. The conservative share of the vote in Newark in 2010 was 53% and UKP's was 3%. The largest swing in UK election history was 21%
 




WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 10, 2003
25,676
Farage rejected the opportunity to stand so clearly he has doubts ?

Farage refused to stand in an election that would allow him to instigate his party's single policy, rather than continue to take a salary and expenses from a body that couldn't. I find that hard to believe ???
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,265
Farage rejected the opportunity to stand so clearly he has doubts ?

this. Tories have an actualy numerical majority in Newark, accounting from some votes away from Labour and alot from Liberals, UKIP would have to bag half the Tory voters to win.
 


Vegas Seagull

New member
Jul 10, 2009
7,782
For once I'm in full agreement with HB&B: this is a massive by-election. We can take it for granted that UKIP will win but the party really has to record a huge victory - anything else would mean talk of holding balance of power as meaningless. And Tories have to hang on to second, anything else spells trouble for them

£400 will get you £1100... Easy money then, Fill your boots
 




GreersElbow

New member
Jan 5, 2012
4,870
A Northern Outpost
For once I'm in full agreement with HB&B: this is a massive by-election. We can take it for granted that UKIP will win but the party really has to record a huge victory - anything else would mean talk of holding balance of power as meaningless. And Tories have to hang on to second, anything else spells trouble for them

Incredible analysis again; have you seen the Conservative majority? It's 16,000, UKIP would have to gain at minimum 8,000 of those, with Labour gaining very few and losing a few thousand to UKIP. UKIP's last result in 2010 was just under 2,000. Conservatives would then have to hope to gain approximately 2-4 thousand floating voters to hold if that were the case.

UKIP will do well, but they won't take the seat. They have a lot of work to do and I doubt they'll achieve it.
 


Lenny Rider

Well-known member
Sep 15, 2010
5,375
What constitutes a protest vote though, if UKIP were to record the biggest swing in political history could they repeat on mass scale come the general election? Giving the government a bloody nose as a one off is all well and good but ultimately the kind of national swing to get any kind of seats and the power that comes with it is a tall order.
 


Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,324
Uffern
That is a massive assumption. The conservative share of the vote in Newark in 2010 was 53% and UKP's was 3%. The largest swing in UK election history was 21%

That's nowhere near true: the biggest by election swing was 44% in Bermondsey in 1983 - there have been 15 by election swings bigger than 21% in fact.

UKIP should have this on toast. They have all the factors in their favour: a long history of by election protest votes; a marginal seat that has swung between Labour and Tories in the last 20 years; the previous MP kicked out for malpractice; being placed in the geographic area that leans most heavily towards UKIP and close enough to the European elections to put UKIP's main policy to the front of people's minds. As it's a by election, UKIP can avoid one of its problems - the lack of resources - and concentrate on the one seat. It's hard to think of a more propitious set of circumstances for UKIP.

At normal times, UKIP would be in with a chance, when we've just seen a "political earthquake", they should be a shoo-in. According to the Telegraph, the Newark vote in the Euro elections would see UKIP win comfortably.

I hadn't realised they weren't favourites, I've just splashed out at that 11/4
 






beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,265
a marginal seat that

isnt a marginal seat at all with 16k majority. if half the tory vote either abstained or voted UKIP it still wouldnt be enough without tactical voting from Labour. Newark is going to show just how much of the protest was aimed squarly at EU/immigration, rather than general dissatisfaction.
 


seagullsovergrimsby

#cpfctinpotclub
Aug 21, 2005
43,690
Crap Town
That's nowhere near true: the biggest by election swing was 44% in Bermondsey in 1983 - there have been 15 by election swings bigger than 21% in fact.

UKIP should have this on toast. They have all the factors in their favour: a long history of by election protest votes; a marginal seat that has swung between Labour and Tories in the last 20 years; the previous MP kicked out for malpractice; being placed in the geographic area that leans most heavily towards UKIP and close enough to the European elections to put UKIP's main policy to the front of people's minds. As it's a by election, UKIP can avoid one of its problems - the lack of resources - and concentrate on the one seat. It's hard to think of a more propitious set of circumstances for UKIP.

At normal times, UKIP would be in with a chance, when we've just seen a "political earthquake", they should be a shoo-in. According to the Telegraph, the Newark vote in the Euro elections would see UKIP win comfortably.

I hadn't realised they weren't favourites, I've just splashed out at that 11/4

I think the result will be very close either way. It could all boil down to tactical voting (Lab -> UKIP) , collapse of the LibDem vote and turnout from non voters in 2010 who will vote in this by election.
 






Jim D

Well-known member
Jul 23, 2003
5,249
Worthing
The UKIP candidate seems more Tory than the official candidate - used to be a Tory MEP but fell out with the leadership. These two could knock each other out and, given the reduced voting levels in a by-election, may just let the Labour guy in. At 16-1 that could be the value bet here.
 


Eeyore

Lord Donkey of Queen's Park
NSC Patreon
Apr 5, 2014
23,381
That's nowhere near true: the biggest by election swing was 44% in Bermondsey in 1983 - there have been 15 by election swings bigger than 21% in fact.

I hope, for the sake of sanity, that the election campaign is not as ugly as that one.
 


West Hoathly Seagull

Honorary Ruffian
Aug 26, 2003
3,540
Sharpthorne/SW11
I'm not sure a UKIP win is a sure thing is it? If it was, Farage would have stood there. Think it will be very close - with them, Tories and Labour all in with a shout.

Farage said he wasn't standing because he had no connection with the area. What was odd was that he also didn't stand at Eastleigh, which being in the South East, is very much his region. UKIP's candidate then, Diane James, was relatively unknown despite being (I think) a local, yet still got close to the Lib Dems. Farage would surely have won, as more Tories would have come over. Newark is a difficult place to predict: it is a prosperous market town, with excellent communications. It only fell to Labour in their landslide year of 1997, and went back to the Tories in 2001, when they hardly made any other gains. The local authority area, Newark and Sherwood, voted heavily for UKIP in the European election, but the Sherwood area is ex-mining (working in the strike) territory, and might have been the more heavily UKIP-supporting area. Oddschecker has all firms still favouring the Tories:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/newark-by-election/winning-party

Unless of course they just have the parties in alphabetical order. I haven't looked closely.
 




RexCathedra

Aurea Mediocritas
Jan 14, 2005
3,498
Vacationland
What constitutes a protest vote though, if UKIP were to record the biggest swing in political history could they repeat on mass scale come the general election.

Depends on whether the punters think of a by-election vote as more analogous to a general election vote or an MEP/local government vote.

Special elections here in the US to fill vacant seats in Congress ping-pong back and forth -- voters don't behave consistently like either one.
 


Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,324
Uffern
I hope, for the sake of sanity, that the election campaign is not as ugly as that one.

Jeez, I was a student journo at the Elephant during the campaign and I remember having to do vox-pops around the area - I couldn't get over the amount of hostility shown towards Tatchell. It was a really nasty homophobic campaign - which made it weird that they voted for another gay.

Farage said he wasn't standing because he had no connection with the area.

Farage wasn't standing because he didn't want to give up his cushy MEP number just yet.

Newark is a difficult place to predict: it is a prosperous market town, with excellent communications. It only fell to Labour in their landslide year of 1997 ...

No, three of the last five MPs have been Labour - it's certainly not a rock solid Tory seat. That's precisely why I think this is an open goal for UKIP. To go back to the Bermondsey analogy, that was a firm Labour seat whose MP had died (not got involved in some dodgy deal) and yet the Libs had a far bigger swing to take it than UKIP need.
 



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