Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊

Register Log in

General Election 2017



Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,721
Back in Sussex
clippedgull said:
When is the 'next' PM actually settled? Is it when the Queens Speech has been voted through?
Click to expand...

Betfair (and Paddy Power) have been quite vague. Initially it was "when the Queen give's assent to the formation of the first ministry" a term which doesn't seem to exist anywhere on the whole internet.

They seem to have stopped using that now. I don't think it is the Queen's Speech being voted through specifically, but I believe when it is, there is a background formality whereby the Queen agree the government can proceed.

The DUP have, today, indicated that they will vote for the Queen's Speech even if their deal has not been complete with the Tories so I'm slightly surprised at the big drift in May's price. I can only assume it's to do with negative sentiment relating to her avoidance of the families of the fire.

I'll be honest, the price seems ridiculous value to me. I don't think the Tories will overthrow her now, although I'm sure many want to, simply for self-preservation. Why would a Tory MP want to go back tot the electorate now?
 




clippedgull

clippedgull

Hotdogs, extra onions
Aug 11, 2003
20,789
Near Ducks, Geese, and Seagulls
Bozza said:
Betfair (and Paddy Power) have been quite vague. Initially it was "when the Queen give's assent to the formation of the first ministry" a term which doesn't seem to exist anywhere on the whole internet.

They seem to have stopped using that now. I don't think it is the Queen's Speech being voted through specifically, but I believe when it is, there is a background formality whereby the Queen agree the government can proceed.

The DUP have, today, indicated that they will vote for the Queen's Speech even if their deal has not been complete with the Tories so I'm slightly surprised at the big drift in May's price. I can only assume it's to do with negative sentiment relating to her avoidance of the families of the fire.

I'll be honest, the price seems ridiculous value to me. I don't think the Tories will overthrow her now, although I'm sure many want to, simply for self-preservation. Why would a Tory MP want to go back tot the electorate now?
Click to expand...

Thanks for the reply. :)

Unlikely I know but I wonder if there is a possibility some Tories will abstain on the Queens Speech to force a defeat and I assume she would resign immediately if that came to pass.
 


Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,721
Back in Sussex
clippedgull said:
Thanks for the reply. :)

Unlikely I know but I wonder if there is a possibility some Tories will abstain on the Queens Speech to force a defeat and I assume she would resign immediately if that came to pass.
Click to expand...

It would be electoral suicide wouldn't it? I agree - very unlikely.
 










K

knocky1

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2010
12,965
LamieRobertson said:
Not going to happen imho so you can stop dreaming
Click to expand...

May may go this weekend. Anyone put in their place by Andrea Ledsome needs to think long and hard about their suitability for the job. The Dup's coalition with a new Tory puppet leader would, as you say, keep out JC for a few months.
 


LamieRobertson

LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
46,675
SHOREHAM BY SEA
knocky1 said:
May may go this weekend. Anyone put in their place by Andrea Ledsome needs to think long and hard about their suitability for the job. The Dup's coalition with a new Tory puppet leader would, as you say, keep out JC for a few months.
Click to expand...

its an interesting thought...i just don't think that it will happen quite so soon
 








Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,721
Back in Sussex
It feels like a no win position for whoever is in government right now.

Corbyn would undoubtedly have a softer ride, initially at least, as positive sentiment is on his side whilst the absolute opposite is true for May. Perhaps that is what is needed for this particularly bumpy spell.

If I were Theresa May, I'd be thinking "**** it, there's more to life than this" and exit stage left.
 




K

knocky1

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2010
12,965
Bozza said:
It feels like a no win position for whoever is in government right now.

Corbyn would undoubtedly have a softer ride, initially at least, as positive sentiment is on his side whilst the absolute opposite is true for May. Perhaps that is what is needed for this particularly bumpy spell.

If I were Theresa May, I'd be thinking "**** it, there's more to life than these low life's and exit stage right.
Click to expand...

A few improvements but good initial point.
 
Last edited:


beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,303
what odds for one of Hammond, Johnson, Gove, etc? talking about Corbyn as PM if May were to resign seem to be overlooking the seat count doesnt work for Labour and that the Conservatives can appoint a new leader immediatly (if unopposed, which they can be arranged if it means must).
 


Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,721
Back in Sussex
beorhthelm said:
what odds for one of Hammond, Johnson, Gove, etc? talking about Corbyn as PM if May were to resign seem to be overlooking the seat count doesnt work for Labour and that the Conservatives can appoint a new leader immediatly (if unopposed, which they can be arranged if it means must).
Click to expand...

Here's the market.
564dc1ca1e12f483d8892aa9596ad5ed.jpg
 






Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,721
Back in Sussex
Prime Minister after election odds as May continues to drift. No shortening of Corbyn, it's the Tory frontrunners who are being nudged in.

May - 1/5
Corbyn - 17/1
Johnson - 40/1
Hammond - 40/1
Davis - 50/1
Rudd - 80/1
 




Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,721
Back in Sussex
Mackenzie said:
Looks like it's win/win for you Bozza!
Click to expand...

It's better than it looks. Initially only had a lay on May to be next PM by way of an arb against better odds available with the bookies at various times. Those bets have paid out as wins already, so whereas I was expecting to lose £250 in Betfair (less than my wins at the bookies) I'm now in profit in Betfair too. So, yes, it's a win-win, but not quite in the way you meant!
 




Ernest

Ernest

Stupid IDIOT
Nov 8, 2003
42,739
LOONEY BIN
Bozza said:
It's better than it looks. Initially only had a lay on May to be next PM by way of an arb against better odds available with the bookies at various times. Those bets have paid out as wins already, so whereas I was expecting to lose £250 in Betfair (less than my wins at the bookies) I'm now in profit in Betfair too. So, yes, it's a win-win, but not quite in the way you meant!
Click to expand...

Long thread on Betfair forum about the next PM market and the consensus is that Betfair will settle when a viable government is formed and whoever is PM then, BTW money on there for Hammond tonight
 


Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,721
Back in Sussex
Ernest said:
Long thread on Betfair forum about the next PM market and the consensus is that Betfair will settle when a viable government is formed and whoever is PM then, BTW money on there for Hammond tonight
Click to expand...

Yeah, I've been following that too.

I'm not as brave as some of them are professing to be by repeatedly topping up on May. I can't see she won't be PM and will present the Queen's Speech and it will be voted through but there is this little nagging doubtt!
 


You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page

Albion and Premier League latest from Sky Sports


Top
Link Here