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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]



Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing


BigGully

Well-known member
Sep 8, 2006
7,139
Newhaven winter statistics

December 2017 - day max average 8.26 c night min average 2.65 c - mean 5.46 c
January 2018 - day max average 9.39 c night min average 3.49 c - mean 6.44 c
To 20/2/18 - day max average 7.35 c night min average 0.55 c - mean 3.95 c

Don't panic Unc, don't panic ...........
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,781
Lancing
Don't panic Unc, don't panic ...........

I am not. Just stating the facts. It does look cold next week but no forecast is showing snow now. What will be will be
 




Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,781
Lancing




Eeyore

Lord Donkey of Queen's Park
NSC Patreon
Apr 5, 2014
23,380


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
Just out interest , the precipitations on the right , even the boldest prediction in black from GFS only has it peaking at about 12.5mm on the 5th.

That's just a mere dusting ?

Or am I reading it incorrectly


Worth quoting [MENTION=365]Napper[/MENTION] for this, as it's relevant.

The 6Z GFS has tweaked the Thursday snow chances down here AND added a Friday chance (although slight) - with daytime max temps of 4 or 5C I'd not expect much settling... but

and next week still looks cold with snow possible, even likely at times.

graphe_ens4_njg1.gif
 






Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
2,921
Uckfield
But you were in Southwick in 2013.....

I keep forgetting to remind him about March 2013 ... so thanks for that :p.

From everything I've seen so far, next week has the potential to put March '13 well into the shade in terms of how wintry it could get.
 


Guinness Boy

Tofu eating wokerati
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patreon
Jul 23, 2003
33,820
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
Hello. Lurker and occasional FLUMPAGE lover here. The one day I could really do with it not snowing is Sunday when I'll be running the Brighton Half. Am I correct in reading all the models that Sunday morning will be cold with an Easterly but zero chance of snow? That we're all pretty sure the snow starts next week if it's coming?
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
Hello. Lurker and occasional FLUMPAGE lover here. The one day I could really do with it not snowing is Sunday when I'll be running the Brighton Half. Am I correct in reading all the models that Sunday morning will be cold with an Easterly but zero chance of snow? That we're all pretty sure the snow starts next week if it's coming?

Yep, Sunday (and Saturday) look like being crisp and cold with frosts early and late.. perhaps increased cloud later.
 




Guinness Boy

Tofu eating wokerati
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patreon
Jul 23, 2003
33,820
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
Yep, Sunday (and Saturday) look like being crisp and cold with frosts early and late.. perhaps increased cloud later.

Ace. This really is shaping up fantastically. A nice cold, crisp, clear day to run on and then a nice bit of snow before spring :clap:
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
Just for fun (of course) but this is the projected total snow fall for the GFS 6Z run up to and including Saturday week

Don't use this as an actual forecast, BUT it does show the potential

240-780UK.GIF.d00a234d679d69f08f5e1c880ac7e1ed.GIF
 


Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patreon
Aug 8, 2005
26,456
Just for fun (of course) but this is the projected total snow fall for the GFS 6Z run up to and including Saturday week

Don't use this as an actual forecast, BUT it does show the potential

240-780UK.GIF.d00a234d679d69f08f5e1c880ac7e1ed.GIF

I'd be happy with 18cm. :)
 






Dr Bandler

Well-known member
Dec 17, 2005
545
Peterborough
Newhaven winter statistics

December 2017 - day max average 8.26 c night min average 2.65 c - mean 5.46 c
January 2018 - day max average 9.39 c night min average 3.49 c - mean 6.44 c
To 20/2/18 - day max average 7.35 c night min average 0.55 c - mean 3.95 c

Most of the personal development theories I work with are underpinned by the idea that you should add value to others. The posts of Papa and others who interpret the weather models for the rest of us certainly do that, and we appreciate it. I am not sure that your posts add any value at all - rather try to de-value what others are constructively adding.

I really hope the models and forecasts are correct and we see plenty of cold and snow next week, but this post is more about you. Next time you go to post please ask yourself whether what you are about to write adds any value for anyone. If not, ask yourself what is your motivation for posting it, and consider whether you should really bother.
 




casbom

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,581
It'll be interesting how the models handle the disturbance that is due around Wed/Thu which heralds in the even colder air (if it's still heading for us and not France).

Hopefully the really cold air does head for us along with the trough in front of it. I've never experienced a scenario where a front comes (all snow) which behind it brings in even colder weather!
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
It'll be interesting how the models handle the disturbance that is due around Wed/Thu which heralds in the even colder air (if it's still heading for us and not France).

Hopefully the really cold air does head for us along with the trough in front of it. I've never experienced a scenario where a front comes (all snow) which behind it brings in even colder weather!

I think we had something like that in 1987 when a cold front from the East marked the divide between 0C and -4c by day and we got snow with it.

IF, if we get all the pieces in place, any little disturbances in the flow (like the 1 shown for Friday on the GFS) although it will drag in less cold air, we'd still be talking about -8C at 850hpa meaning all snow!

Still a lot can go wrong... need to watch out for spoiler lows / shortwave features that, as you say can either drag colder air OR trip up the flow.
 





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